Interest Rates

This chart is harder to see the trend in because of the general downward trend, but its still there, even the short-term bounce in Feb 2001 and 2008.

2000:  On Jan 2000, the 10 year rate was 6.68%.  In May 2000, it was at 6.29%.  The rate declined steadily until Feb. 2001 at 4.92%, then rose a bit to 5.43% in May 2001, then dropped to 4.3% in Oct 2001 (about 35%), about when the recession ended.

2007: In May 2007, the rate was 4.9%, rising to 5.03% in June 2007.  It then declined steadily until Feb. 2008 at 3.45% (a drop of about 31% from the high), rose a bit to 4.06% in May 2008, then dropped to 2.25% in Dec 2008 (about 56%) before rising.  (The recession continued until June 2009).

2014: In Dec 2013, the rate hit 3.04%. It was at 2.82% on 4/2/14.  In May it was at 2.52%.  If past patterns repeat, it will decline steadily to about 1.5% (a drop of about 50% from the high) in Oct. 2015 before rising again.