There is only one day out of the year when you can sing this and really mean it.
Summer has come and passed
The innocent can never last
Wake me up when September ends
The innocent can never last
Wake me up when September ends
Monday, September 30, 2019
Twenty Cities with the highest homeless population
It is very hard to get good data on the homeless population. This is partially because homeless people don't want to get counted, and partially because there is an incentive on the part of the "do-gooders" to exaggerate the numbers so they get more funding. This is my best estimate, after about an hour of research. Note that this includes only the "unsheltered" homeless, or where that number isn't available, the "chronic" homeless. These are the folks in tents or under bridges. People who live in transitional housing or even homeless shelters by (my) definition aren't homeless. Most of these are on the West Coast.
New York City has the highest homeless population in the country, with about 77,000, but more than 95% of these are in shelters. Chicago claims 86,000 in 2017, but this includes 70,000 who "lived doubled-up". Los Angeles claims 59,000 homeless, but about 75% of these are unsheltered.
Update:
Baltimore should be on this list. Taking a total homeless population in Maryland of 6576, of which half are in Baltimore/Baltimore County and 3/4 of which are unsheltered, gives 2466.
| Los Angeles | 44,214 |
| San Jose/Santa Clara | 6,020 |
| San Francisco | 4,595 |
| Las Vegas | 4,353 |
| Oakland | 4,071 |
| New York City | 4,000 |
| Orange County | 3,961 |
| Sacramento | 3,676 |
| Seattle | 3,500 |
| Honolulu | 3,475 |
| Phoenix | 3,300 |
| Portland | 2,869 |
| Houston | 2,291 |
| Chicago | 2,056 |
| San Diego | 1,991 |
| Detroit | 1,700 |
| Dallas/Ft Worth | 1,452 |
| Austin | 1,086 |
| Miami | 1,008 |
| Boston | 985 |
New York City has the highest homeless population in the country, with about 77,000, but more than 95% of these are in shelters. Chicago claims 86,000 in 2017, but this includes 70,000 who "lived doubled-up". Los Angeles claims 59,000 homeless, but about 75% of these are unsheltered.
Update:
Baltimore should be on this list. Taking a total homeless population in Maryland of 6576, of which half are in Baltimore/Baltimore County and 3/4 of which are unsheltered, gives 2466.
Twenty Cities with the most unauthorized immigrants
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 1,100,000 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 925,000 |
| Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 500,000 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 475,000 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 425,000 |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 425,000 |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 400,000 |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 275,000 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA | 240,000 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 230,000 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 220,000 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 210,000 |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 180,000 |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 160,000 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad, CA | 160,000 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 140,000 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 140,000 |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 130,000 |
| Austin-Round Rock, TX | 100,000 |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 100,000 |
Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/11/us-metro-areas-unauthorized-immigrants/
What collapse will look like
Read: https://dcdirtylaundry.com/the-collapse-will-be-local-former-military-intelligence-special-forces-veterans-explain-why-your-proximity-to-left-wing-cities-may-determine-your-fate/
Basically, there are a few high-density left-wing cities filled with "zombies". "Zombies" aren't defined in the article, but it sounds like anyone who is homeless or a drug addict, or who lives in a ghetto area or high-crime area, or who is an activist such as Antifa. (The article doesn't list the cities, but it wouldn't be hard to make such a list). Los Angeles would be at the top of the list. The most-dangerous parts of these cities would be quarantined.
Law enforcement isn’t even planning to try to run such evacuations for the largest cities like Los Angeles. The strategy is to keep people in place and attempt to support them with deliveries of food, water and medical supplies, should circumstances require. In effect, the response strategy will be to quarantine cities that are collapsing, and not risk National Guard troops trying to enter those cities once they’ve passed a certain point of lawlessness. How long would it take the zombies to reach you if they are on foot? 25-50 miles away is generally considered to be sufficiently far away from the majority of walkers.
So stay at least 50 miles away from the danger zones.
Some recommended websites are: collapse.news and ForwardObserver.com
Basically, there are a few high-density left-wing cities filled with "zombies". "Zombies" aren't defined in the article, but it sounds like anyone who is homeless or a drug addict, or who lives in a ghetto area or high-crime area, or who is an activist such as Antifa. (The article doesn't list the cities, but it wouldn't be hard to make such a list). Los Angeles would be at the top of the list. The most-dangerous parts of these cities would be quarantined.
Law enforcement isn’t even planning to try to run such evacuations for the largest cities like Los Angeles. The strategy is to keep people in place and attempt to support them with deliveries of food, water and medical supplies, should circumstances require. In effect, the response strategy will be to quarantine cities that are collapsing, and not risk National Guard troops trying to enter those cities once they’ve passed a certain point of lawlessness. How long would it take the zombies to reach you if they are on foot? 25-50 miles away is generally considered to be sufficiently far away from the majority of walkers.
So stay at least 50 miles away from the danger zones.
Some recommended websites are: collapse.news and ForwardObserver.com
Friday, September 27, 2019
The next recession will bring $3 trillion annual deficits
Quote: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has the exhilarating task of forecasting the federal government’s budget deficit. The CBO expects the deficit to be about $900 billion this year and gradually rise to $1.4 trillion by 2029. But the CBO has been taking happy pills. I expect the deficit a decade from now to be more like $2 trillion. And note that the CBO doesn’t forecast recessions – those happy pills, remember? The next one could take the deficit to something like $3 trillion.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4253380-2-plus-trillion-federal-deficits-coming-will-weigh-stock-prices-sell-rallies-like-one
The article is by a guy named Gary Gordon, and he makes a persuasive case that the deficits a decade from now will be over $2 trillion per year. He doesn't really explain how they would jump to $3 trillion in a recession, but I guess he is assuming a combination of lower revenue and increased spending.
Anyways I want to make a note of this remark about the $3 trillion deficit. I actually think it is too high. John Mauldin forecasts a $2.3 trillion annual deficit by 2023, assuming there is a recession by then. And I think his forecast is too gloomy as well. According to my latest forecast, I don't see us hitting a $2 trillion deficit until 2031, even with recessions. I'm just pointing out that there are people more pessimistic than me.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4253380-2-plus-trillion-federal-deficits-coming-will-weigh-stock-prices-sell-rallies-like-one
The article is by a guy named Gary Gordon, and he makes a persuasive case that the deficits a decade from now will be over $2 trillion per year. He doesn't really explain how they would jump to $3 trillion in a recession, but I guess he is assuming a combination of lower revenue and increased spending.
Anyways I want to make a note of this remark about the $3 trillion deficit. I actually think it is too high. John Mauldin forecasts a $2.3 trillion annual deficit by 2023, assuming there is a recession by then. And I think his forecast is too gloomy as well. According to my latest forecast, I don't see us hitting a $2 trillion deficit until 2031, even with recessions. I'm just pointing out that there are people more pessimistic than me.
Thursday, September 26, 2019
Forest Fair Mall
Forest Fair Mall in Cincinnati is probably the second-biggest zombie mall on the planet, behind the South China mall in Dongguan (but that one has increased its occupancy rate).
Forest Fair Mall has over 1.5 million sq ft of leasable space, but it only has about 4 stores open. What is weird and spooky is that it is still open, as the above video shows, and you can walk through the entire deserted mall. It is still in good shape, except for the parking garage.
It would be a shame to tear it down, since it cost $250 million to build, and it is still in good shape. Could they convert it to housing? Figure out the expected lifespan of the building (maybe 30 or 50 years) and sell long-term leases, and then let people remodel their own "stores" into condos. Also, let people use it for their own stores if they want. Maybe the city could create a nonprofit and buy the whole thing for like $5 million, and sell the long-term leases for cheap, just enough to cover the costs. It could be like an Arcology.
========================
Here are some more zombie malls: https://moneywise.com/a/americas-saddest-zombie-malls
This includes only malls that are at least partially open or that have closed within the last year and have not yet been demolished. It doesn't include former malls that have been demolished.
1. Horton Plaza, San Diego.
2. St Louis Outlet Mall
3. Hawthorne Plaza, Los Angeles
4. Pittsburgh Mills
5. Fiesta Mall, Mesa, Arizona
6. Greenspoint Mall, Houston (not on the above list).
7. Century 3 Mall, near Pittsburgh. In good condition. Closed June 5, 2019, to be demolished.
8. Northridge Mall, near Milwaukee. Mostly vacant since 2000, currently condemned. This is in horrible condition.
9. McFarland Mall, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
10. Macon Mall, Macon, Georgia. It has a 70% vacancy rate.
11. Charlestowne Mall, St Charles, Illinois (near Chicago). It still has 3 stores open.
12. Frederick Town Mall, in Frederick, Maryland. It has 2 anchor stores open.
13. ShoppingTown Mall, in Dewitt, New York (near Syracuse). It still has 7 stores open.
14. Innsbruck Mall, Asheville, NC. Built in 1966, it was only 200,000 sq. ft. so much smaller than these others. Apparently it still has a DMV open.
15. Eastland Mall, Tulsa, OK. It was remodeled and the name changed to Eastland Metroplex. It is now about 70% occupied.
16. Richland Mall, Columbia SC.
17. Fort Henry Mall, Kingsport, TN.
18. Westside Pavilion, Los Angeles. It will be taken over by Google.
19. Hickory Hollow Mall, Antioch, TN. It still has 1 store open.
20. Regency Square Mall, Jacksonville, FL. It has less than 40% vacancy rate.
21. Palatka Mall. Palatka, FL.
Monday, September 23, 2019
Fakest news ever
This cracks me up.
Former Japanese Prime Ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Yasuhiro Nakasone were taken last week by U.S. military police to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Japanese police and underworld sources both say.
 |
| Yasuhiro Nakasone, former Prime Minister of Japan |
I don't know the chain of events that would lead someone to make a YouTube video about this, but I find it hilarious.
Sunday, September 22, 2019
Thursday, September 19, 2019
September 18 is rate cut day
Yesterday, September 18th, the Fed cut rates for the second time. This is exactly the same as the U.S. economy and stock market of September 2007. Even the rate cut day – September 18th – was the same. The market hit a new high….and then crashed the following year.
--https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/09/19/explosive-ny-fed-bails-out-wall-street-firm-in-liquidity-disaster-as-us-mulls-remake-of-2007/
On September 18, 2007, the Fed cut rates from 5.25% to 4.75%.
On September 18, 2019, the Fed cut rates from 2.1% to 1.8%.
And on September 17, 2001, the Fed cut rates from 3.5% to 3.0%
--https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/09/19/explosive-ny-fed-bails-out-wall-street-firm-in-liquidity-disaster-as-us-mulls-remake-of-2007/
On September 18, 2007, the Fed cut rates from 5.25% to 4.75%.
On September 18, 2019, the Fed cut rates from 2.1% to 1.8%.
And on September 17, 2001, the Fed cut rates from 3.5% to 3.0%
===============
On Sept 29 1998, the Fed cut rates from 5.5% to 5.25%.
On Sept 13, 1991, the Fed cut rates from 5.5% to 5.25%
The Fed has lost control
The Fed has control of this number. The IOER is now 1.80%. It was 2.10% until yesterday (Sept 18), when it was lowered. See the current IOER here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER
This should have made the 1 month Treasury bill 1.8%. Instead it is at 2.01%. Notice that this went UP today, so the problem is getting worse.
Also, the SOFR rate jumped to 5.25% as of 9/17. This number should have been 2.10%. See the current SOFR rate here: http://www.sofrrate.com/
The EFF minus IOER spread should be less than 0.05. Instead it was at 0.45 yesterday (9/18/19). The EFF was at 2.25% and the IOER was at 1.8%. See the current EFF rate here: https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/fed%20funds
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
The Lehman Brothers Valukas Report
This is the report into the collapse of Lehman Brothers by examiner Anton Valukas. While this is ancient history from 2008, I still find it interesting. The report is available here:
https://web.stanford.edu/~jbulow/Lehmandocs/VOLUME%201.pdf
The basic problem with Lehman is that it had a large amount of assets that had declined in value, like risky mortgages ("Alt-A"). Also, it was relying on the nightly repo market for funding to the tune of $200 billion. Once it lost the confidence of its trading counterparties, its demise was inevitable. The model that it used is no longer used by banks today.
https://web.stanford.edu/~jbulow/Lehmandocs/VOLUME%201.pdf
The basic problem with Lehman is that it had a large amount of assets that had declined in value, like risky mortgages ("Alt-A"). Also, it was relying on the nightly repo market for funding to the tune of $200 billion. Once it lost the confidence of its trading counterparties, its demise was inevitable. The model that it used is no longer used by banks today.
Monday, September 16, 2019
9/11 Truth
 |
| David Chandler |
Here are some links doubting the official narrative:
http://911speakout.org/
https://www.ae911truth.org/
http://www.scientistsfor911truth.com
https://colorado911truth.org/
To read the newspapers or listen to the radio, one would think that questions about the official account of events of September 11, 2001 come only from a fringe group. But this is an illusion, consciously propagated, we believe, by government agents and their mouthpieces in the mainstream press. In a series of public opinion polls, roughly half of Americans were shown to doubt that the government is telling us the truth about 9/11, and the numbers are growing each year.
The truth is that among independent scientists with no axe to grind, a large proportion of those who look into the 9/11 evidence find grounds for doubt. A few have put their reputations and careers at risk in order to speak out about that evidence, and what they see. In 2010, larger numbers of scientists have joined together and contributed their expertise to create this web site.
It doesn’t take a PhD to understand that the official account of the 9/11 attacks contains contradictions and physical impossibilities. One of the strongest reasons for doubting the official version is common sense. Still, sometimes our common sense can fool us, and, especially where such serious charges are being levelled, it is wise to consult scientific expertise as well.
Saturday, September 14, 2019
Is the actual US Debt over $400 trillion?
 |
| Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |
See https://www.rt.com/business/468658-us-debt-report-economy/
A new report suggests that the real US debt level may be $400 trillion, or 20 times higher than the country’s gross domestic product.
I am linking to this because it is in the news, but I don't believe it. It is mentioning a report supposedly created by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, chief US economist at AB Bernstein.
I don't think RT News is a credible source. This article doesn't even name who wrote it. I write some crazy stuff, but I always link to my sources. There are no links to this supposed report. I think this is a hoax. AllianceBernstein has a blog: https://blog.alliancebernstein.com/en/home.htm, with no mention of this report.
The actual situation is bad enough without exaggerating. So the answer to the question is NO, the actual US debt is not over $400 trillion.
===============
Here is another article which also doesn't link to the source:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/real-us-debt-levels-could-be-a-shocking-2000percent-of-gdp-report-suggests.html . This article was written by a reporter named Jeff Cox. This article supposedly quotes from the report:
“This conceptual difference is important to acknowledge because this lens is often used by those who wish to paint a dire picture about debt,” Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, chief U.S. economist at AB Bernstein, said in the report. “While the picture is dire, such numbers don’t prove we are doomed or that a debt crisis is inevitable.” “U.S. debt is large. And it’s growing. But if we want to think about debt problems (in any sector – sovereign, households, firms or financials) the conditions rather than the levels are more significant,” Carlsson-Szlezak said. “Debt problems could, arguably would have, already happened at lower levels of debt if the macro conditions forced it.”
I still don't believe it. If there is a report floating out there on the Interwebs, there must be a link to it somewhere even if it is behind a firewall. And there is nothing. Other than these two articles, and other news items that quotes these two. FAKE.
When China rules the world
When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order is a book by British journalist and scholar Martin Jacques. It was released in 2009. It aroused a serious discussion in the United States and globally about the role of China in the creation of the new 21st century world order. Jacques refers to the estimates on China's economic superiority, such as made by Goldman Sachs, and concludes that China's future economic strength will heavily alter the political and cultural landscape of the future world. The book was originally released in the UK under the subtitle "The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World".
For over two hundred years we have lived in a western-made world, one where the very notion of being modern was synonymous with being western. The book argues that the twenty-first century will be different: with the rise of increasingly powerful non-Western countries, the west will no longer be dominant and there will be many ways of being modern. In this new era of ‘contested modernity’ the central player will be China.
From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_China_Rules_the_World
For over two hundred years we have lived in a western-made world, one where the very notion of being modern was synonymous with being western. The book argues that the twenty-first century will be different: with the rise of increasingly powerful non-Western countries, the west will no longer be dominant and there will be many ways of being modern. In this new era of ‘contested modernity’ the central player will be China.
From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_China_Rules_the_World
See also http://www.martinjacques.com/
Friday, September 13, 2019
Stockman sees a crash in October 2020, with Warren the next president
I remember in the spring of 2008 they were still talking about the Goldilocks economy. And in November 2008, they were talking about the end of the world.
This is exactly what I think will happen if the stock market breaks loose.
We don’t know when it will happen. It could happen before November 2020 or after it. No one can really predict.
I think the odds are that it will happen before then [November 2020], and if it does, Trump is toast. Elizabeth Warren will be the next president of the United States, and as that prospect becomes even more probable, the panic in the stock market will be something to behold. It will be worse than anything we’ve seen since October 1987.
If you talk about volatility, you haven’t seen nothing yet. Wait until the election gets really in full heat next year.
I think Elizabeth Warren will come to the top. Joe Biden is quasi senile, and he’s going to fall by the wayside. Bernie just isn’t going to cut it with the mainstream Democrats. So, Warren is going to pull ahead.
Monday, September 9, 2019
DIA remodeling fiasco
Denver is remodeling its airport at a cost of $1.8 billion, although it is already over budget by hundreds of millions, and it may not be finished until 2025. The original budget was $650 million and it was supposed to be done by 2021.
The construction contract ran 15,000 pages. Denver just fired the prime contractor Great Hall Partners, but doesn't have a replacement yet. Denver owes the contractor more than $200 million for money it already spent on the project. What a mess! The good news is that money is no object. They can just sell more bonds, which are at record-low interest rates, and then increase airport fees as needed to cover the costs.
Friday, September 6, 2019
El Liston de tu Pelo
Me mordía los labios al no poderte besar
Mi piel se estremecía al no poderte tocar
Hoy por fin esta noche estarás junto a mi
Olvida la vanidad
El orgullo déjalo afuera
Que esta noche sensual y bohemia
Es por la ansiedad de que estés junto a mi
Mi piel se estremecía al no poderte tocar
Hoy por fin esta noche estarás junto a mi
Olvida la vanidad
El orgullo déjalo afuera
Que esta noche sensual y bohemia
Es por la ansiedad de que estés junto a mi
Suelta el listón de tu pelo
Desvanece el vestido sobre tu cuerpoy
Acércate a mi
Que beberé del perfume de tu piel
Deslizando una rosa en tu cuerpo
Provocando amor
Desvanece el vestido sobre tu cuerpoy
Acércate a mi
Que beberé del perfume de tu piel
Deslizando una rosa en tu cuerpo
Provocando amor
Apagaré la luz, no puedo esperar mas
Aprenderé de ti hasta el final
Provócame mis labios, hazme tuya de una vez
Que impaciente estoy de ti
De tu sensualidad que siempre callé
Aprenderé de ti hasta el final
Provócame mis labios, hazme tuya de una vez
Que impaciente estoy de ti
De tu sensualidad que siempre callé
WTC Oculus fail
It's mind boggling how expensive this is, and what a fiasco it is. But no one is complaining, because the government is paying for the whole thing (the Federal government is paying for at least $2.8 billion), and no amount is too much to pay for the memory of 9/11.
Some links:
And an untold amount of the price is intrinsically tied up with the building’s exoticism. Constructing it has required an enormous amount of custom fabrication. The steel of the oculus, cast in specialty shops, came over from Italy on nine ships.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/03/santiago-calatrava-world-trade-center-path-hub.html
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
The Force Awakens is A New Hope
Ok this is old news, but it is new to me.
I saw part of The Force Awakens (2015) on TV on Sunday night and I realized that it was a remake of the original Star Wars (1977) film, later called A New Hope. Then I found that lots of other people have come to the same conclusion. Here is a partial list of parallels:
Rey is Luke Skywalker, an orphan who lives on a desert planet.
Poe Dameron is Princess Leia. He gives the plans to the robot, just like Princess Leia did in the original. And he gets captured by the dark lord at the beginning, just like Princess Leia did. (Note that other people see him more like Han Solo.)
BB-8 is R2D2.
Finn is Han Solo, mostly, although there is one scene where he takes off his stormtrooper helmet that parallels Luke Skywalker taking off his stormtrooper helmet. Finn is a reluctant hero. He doesn't want to get involved if he doesn't have to, just like Han Solo.
Kylo Ren is Darth Vader. (Kylo Ren is actually Ben Solo, the son of Han Solo and Leia, who turns to the dark side).
Maz Kanata is Obi-Won Kenobi, mostly, although she also has similarities to Yoda. The wise old person who teaches about the Force.
Bala-Tik is Boba Fett, the bounty hunter. He works for Kanjiklub, who is the equivalent of Jabba the Hutt. (Although there is also another set of bounty hunters after Han Solo - Tasu Leech, Yayan Ruhian, and Calvin Chen. I don't know if they are working together with Bala-Tik. And I don't care enough to read up on them).
Supreme Leader Snoke is Emperor Palpatine (of course).
At one point, the real Han Solo plays Obi-Won Kenobi, by getting into a light saber duel with Kylo Ren. And he gets cut down, just like Obi-Won did.
The original is much better, of course. The Force Awakens is tedious to watch and complicated. It isn't fun. It's an art project. The only thing that makes it interesting is finding these parallels. And actually, the movie become more enjoyable once you recognize them.
I saw part of The Force Awakens (2015) on TV on Sunday night and I realized that it was a remake of the original Star Wars (1977) film, later called A New Hope. Then I found that lots of other people have come to the same conclusion. Here is a partial list of parallels:
Rey is Luke Skywalker, an orphan who lives on a desert planet.
Poe Dameron is Princess Leia. He gives the plans to the robot, just like Princess Leia did in the original. And he gets captured by the dark lord at the beginning, just like Princess Leia did. (Note that other people see him more like Han Solo.)
BB-8 is R2D2.
Finn is Han Solo, mostly, although there is one scene where he takes off his stormtrooper helmet that parallels Luke Skywalker taking off his stormtrooper helmet. Finn is a reluctant hero. He doesn't want to get involved if he doesn't have to, just like Han Solo.
Kylo Ren is Darth Vader. (Kylo Ren is actually Ben Solo, the son of Han Solo and Leia, who turns to the dark side).
Maz Kanata is Obi-Won Kenobi, mostly, although she also has similarities to Yoda. The wise old person who teaches about the Force.
Bala-Tik is Boba Fett, the bounty hunter. He works for Kanjiklub, who is the equivalent of Jabba the Hutt. (Although there is also another set of bounty hunters after Han Solo - Tasu Leech, Yayan Ruhian, and Calvin Chen. I don't know if they are working together with Bala-Tik. And I don't care enough to read up on them).
Supreme Leader Snoke is Emperor Palpatine (of course).
At one point, the real Han Solo plays Obi-Won Kenobi, by getting into a light saber duel with Kylo Ren. And he gets cut down, just like Obi-Won did.
The original is much better, of course. The Force Awakens is tedious to watch and complicated. It isn't fun. It's an art project. The only thing that makes it interesting is finding these parallels. And actually, the movie become more enjoyable once you recognize them.
Why Joe Biden will win in 2020
I believe that Joe Biden will win in 2020. And when I explain my reasoning, you will say that that is the stupidest thing you have ever heard.
I believe that Americans vote for whoever has the shortest last name. And if the last name has the same number of letters, then the one who comes first in the alphabet will win. Now, this isn't a perfect predictor, but it is pretty close.
1964 Johnson v Goldwater.
1968 Nixon v Humphrey
1972 Nixon v McGovern
1976 Carter v Ford. My theory failed here.
1980 Reagan v Carter. My theory failed here.
1984 Reagan v Mondale.
1988 Bush v Dukakis
1992 Clinton v Bush. My theory failed here
1996 Clinton v Dole. My theory failed here.
2000 Bush v Gore.
2004 Bush v Kerry.
2008 Obama v McCain
2012 Obama v Romney
2016 Trump v Clinton
2020 Biden v Trump (prediction)
I believe that Americans vote for whoever has the shortest last name. And if the last name has the same number of letters, then the one who comes first in the alphabet will win. Now, this isn't a perfect predictor, but it is pretty close.
1964 Johnson v Goldwater.
1968 Nixon v Humphrey
1972 Nixon v McGovern
1976 Carter v Ford. My theory failed here.
1980 Reagan v Carter. My theory failed here.
1984 Reagan v Mondale.
1988 Bush v Dukakis
1992 Clinton v Bush. My theory failed here
1996 Clinton v Dole. My theory failed here.
2000 Bush v Gore.
2004 Bush v Kerry.
2008 Obama v McCain
2012 Obama v Romney
2016 Trump v Clinton
2020 Biden v Trump (prediction)
America the Gerontocracy
Read: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/03/america-gerontocracy-problem-politics-old-politicians-trump-biden-sanders-227986
Donald Trump is 73.
Joe Biden is 76.
Bernie Sanders is 77.
Elizabeth Warren is 70.
Time for some fresh blood? It won't happen anytime soon. The next President of the US will probably be an old white guy, either Trump or Biden.
Kamala Harris is 54.
Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, is 79.
Kevin McCarthy, the Republic House Minority Leader, is 54.
Mitch McConnell, the Majority Leader of the Senate, is 77.
Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, is 68.
Mike Pence, Vice President, is 60.
Jimmy Carter is 94
Rosalyn Carter is 92
Bill Clinton is 73.
Hillary Clinton is 71.
George W Bush is 73.
Barrack Obama is now 58.
Newt Gingrich is 76
Al Gore is 71
John Kerry is 75
Bob Dole is 96
Elizabeth Dole is 83
Mitt Romney is 72
Ron Paul is 84
Jerry Brown is 81
Donald Rumsfeld is 87
Dick Cheney is 78
Colin Powell is 82
Jerry Nadler, archnemesis of Trump, is 72.
Robert Mueller is 75.
Rudy Giuliani is 75.
James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, is 78
Paul Manafort, the now disgraced presidential adviser, is 70.
Bernie Madoff is 81. He was sentenced to 150 years in prison in 2009.
Bill Cosby is 82. He was sentenced to prison in September 2018.
OJ Simpson is 72.
On the Supreme Court:
John Roberts is 64.
Clarence Thomas is 71.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 86.
Steven Breyer is 81.
Samuel Alito is 69.
Sonia Sotomayor is 65.
Elena Kagan is 59.
Neil Gorsuch is 52.
Brett Kavanaugh is 54.
There are also 10 members of Congress over 80:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein is 85.
Sen. Chuck Grassley is 85.
Sen. Orrin Hatch is 84.
Sen. Richard Shelby is 84.
Sen. Jim Inhofe is 84.
Sen. Pat Roberts is 82.
Rep Eddie Bernice Johnson is 82
Rep Don Young is 85
Rep Sander Levin is 87
Rep Sam Johnson is 88
Rep Maxine Waters is 81
Sen Joe Manchin is 71
Lester Wolff, former representative from New York, is 100
Neal Smith, former rep from Iowa, is 99
I don't see a list of cabinet members by age, but here are some of them:
Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce is 81.
Don Coats, Director of National Intelligence, is 75
Sonny Purdue, Secretary of Agriculture, is 72.
William Barr, Attorney General, is 69.
Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy, is 69.
Ben Carson, Secretary of HUD is 67.
Elaine Chao, Secretary of Transportation, is 66.
Betsy Devos, Secretary of Education, is 61.
Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of Treasury, is 56.
Patrick Pizzella, Secretary of Labor, is 55.
Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, is 55.
Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense, is also 55.
Alex Azar, Secretary of HHS, is 52.
David Bernhardt, Secretary of the Interior, is 50. He is probably the youngest.
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, is 66.
Janet Yellen, former Fed chair, is now 73.
Paul Volcker, former Fed chair, is 92
Alan Greenspan, former Fed chair, is 93
Jeff Sessions, former Attorney General, is now 72.
Jim Mattis, former Secretary of Defense, is now 68.
Rex Tillerson, former Secretary of State, is now 67.
David Stockman is 72
Governor Kay Ivey of Alabama is 74.
Actors:
Arnold Schwarzenegger is 72
Sylvester Stallone is 73
Chuck Norris is 78
Michael Douglas is 74
Kirk Douglas, his father, is still alive at 102
William Shatner ("Kirk") is 88
Leonard Nimoy ("Spock") is 83.
Nichelle Nichols ("Uhura") is 86
George Takei ("Sulu") is 82
Walter Koenig ("Chekov") is 83
Harrison Ford is 77
George Lucas is 75
Mark Hamill is 67
Billy Dee Williams ("Lando Calrissian") is 82
James Earl Jones (voice of Darth Vader) is 88
David Prowse ("Darth Vader") is 84
Steven Spielberg is 72
Clint Eastwood is 89
Sean Connery is 89
Martin Sheen is 79
Christopher Walken is 76
Christopher Lloyd ("Doc") is 80
Al Pacino is 79
Robert De Niro is 76
Joe Pesci is 76
Robert Duvall is 88.
Woody Allen is 83
Willie Mays, baseball legend, is still alive at 87.
Betty White is 97.
Gene Hackman is 89.
Dustin Hoffman is 82.
Michael Caine is 86.
Donald Sutherland is 84.
Hal Holbrook is 87
Angela Lansbury is 93.
Dick Van Dyke is 93.
Julie Andrews is 83
Christopher Plummer ("The Sound of Music") is 89
Mel Brooks is 93.
Sidney Poitier is 92.
Jerry Stiller (father of George Costanza) is 92
Max von Sydow is 90
Ed Asner is 89
Robert Wagner is 89
John Astin ("Gomez Addams") is 89
Kim Novak is 86
Brigette Bardot is 84
Carol Burnett is 86
Joan Collins is 86
Alan Arkin is 85
Alan Alda is 83
Loretta Swit is 81
Mike Farrell is 80
Jamie Farr ("Corporal Klinger" in MASH) is 85
Richard Chamberlain is 85
Shirley Maclaine is 85
Warren Beatty is 82
Warren Buffet is 89
Charlie Munger is 95
Peter Lynch is 75
Carl Icahn is 83
George Soros is 89
Brazilian billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann is 80
Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim is 79
Larry Ellison is 75
Richard Branson is 69
Bill Gates is 63
John McAfee is 73.
Sophia Loren is 84
Judi Dench ("M" in 007) is 84
Judd Hirsch is 84
Danny Devito is 74
Jack Nicholson is 82
Dianne Keaton is 73
Morgan Freeman is 81
Tony Bennett is 92
Patrick Stewart is 78
Ian McKellen is 79
Anthony Hopkins is 81
Paul Hogan ("Crocodile Dundee") is 79
Ted Danson ("Sam Malone" on Cheers) is 71
Shelly Long ("Dianne Chambers") is 70
George Wendt ("Norm") is 70
John Ratzenberger ("Cliff Clavin") is 72
Shelly Duvall is 70
Rhea Perlman is 71
Meryl Streep is 70
Martin Scorsese is 76
Alex Tribek (Jeopardy) is 79
Chevy Chase is 75
Goldie Hawn is 73
Steve Martin is 74
Richard Dreyfuss is 71
Linda Rondstadt is 73
Linda Evans is 76
Raquel Welch is 79
Olivia Newton-John is 71
John Voight is 80
Lee Travino (golfer) is 79
Lee Majors is 80
David Letterman is 72
Robert Redford is 83
Barbra Streisand is 77
Queen Elizabeth of England is 93.
Prince Philip is 97
Prince Charles is 70
Camilla is 72
Pope Francis is 82
retired Pope Benedict XVI is 92
And look at this list of aging rock stars:
from https://theweek.com/articles/861750/coming-death-just-about-every-rock-legend
Bob Dylan (78 years old); Paul McCartney (77); Paul Simon (77) and Art Garfunkel (77); Carole King (77); Brian Wilson (77); Mick Jagger (76) and Keith Richards (75); Joni Mitchell (75); Jimmy Page (75) and Robert Plant (71); Ray Davies (75); Roger Daltrey (75) and Pete Townshend (74); Roger Waters (75) and David Gilmour (73); Rod Stewart (74); Eric Clapton (74); Debbie Harry (74); Neil Young (73); Van Morrison (73); Bryan Ferry (73); Elton John (72); Don Henley (72); James Taylor (71); Jackson Browne (70); Billy Joel (70); and Bruce Springsteen (69, but turning 70 next month).
Willie Nelson is 85
Dolly Parton is 73
Loretta Lynn is 87
Kenny Rogers is 81
Kris Kristofferson is 83
Mike Love (Beach Boys) is 78
Al Jardine (Beach Boys) is 77
Barbara Walters is 89
Ted Koppel is 79
Dan Rather is 87
Tom Brokaw is 79
Jim Lehrer is 85
Dianne Sawyer is 73
Wolf Blitzer is 71
Ted Turner is 80
Jane Fonda is 81
Connie Chung is 73
Roger Mudd is 91
Chris Wallace is 71
Bernard Shaw is 79
Michael Savage is 77
Bryant Gumbel is 70
Geraldo Rivera is 76
Jerome Corsi is 73
George Will is 78
Lesley Stahl is 77
Bob Woodward is 76
Carl Bernstein is 75
John Dean is 80
G. Gordon Liddy is 83
Larry King is 85
============
Update 9/16/19:
Legendary Rock and Roll Hall of Famer Ric Ocasek dies of natural causes. He was either 70 or 75. Also, Eddie Money died at age 70.
John Paul Stevens died in July at age 99.
Ross Perot died in July at 89.
Lee Iacoca died at 94
Gloria Vanderbilt died at 95
Bart Starr died at 85
Doris Day died at 97
Cokie Roberts died 9/17/19 at age 75
Diahann Carroll died 10/4/19 at age 84
Larry Junstrom from the band Lynyrd Skynyrd died Oct 5 at age 70.
Elijah Cummings dies 10/17/19 at age 68
Wow, half of these people will probably be dead within 2 years. I don't plan on commenting every time some old person dies, but I might for a couple of weeks.
Donald Trump is 73.
Joe Biden is 76.
Bernie Sanders is 77.
Elizabeth Warren is 70.
Time for some fresh blood? It won't happen anytime soon. The next President of the US will probably be an old white guy, either Trump or Biden.
Kamala Harris is 54.
Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, is 79.
Kevin McCarthy, the Republic House Minority Leader, is 54.
Mitch McConnell, the Majority Leader of the Senate, is 77.
Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, is 68.
Mike Pence, Vice President, is 60.
Jimmy Carter is 94
Rosalyn Carter is 92
Bill Clinton is 73.
Hillary Clinton is 71.
George W Bush is 73.
Barrack Obama is now 58.
Newt Gingrich is 76
Al Gore is 71
John Kerry is 75
Bob Dole is 96
Elizabeth Dole is 83
Mitt Romney is 72
Ron Paul is 84
Jerry Brown is 81
Donald Rumsfeld is 87
Dick Cheney is 78
Colin Powell is 82
Jerry Nadler, archnemesis of Trump, is 72.
Robert Mueller is 75.
Rudy Giuliani is 75.
James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, is 78
Paul Manafort, the now disgraced presidential adviser, is 70.
Bernie Madoff is 81. He was sentenced to 150 years in prison in 2009.
Bill Cosby is 82. He was sentenced to prison in September 2018.
OJ Simpson is 72.
On the Supreme Court:
John Roberts is 64.
Clarence Thomas is 71.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 86.
Steven Breyer is 81.
Samuel Alito is 69.
Sonia Sotomayor is 65.
Elena Kagan is 59.
Neil Gorsuch is 52.
Brett Kavanaugh is 54.
There are also 10 members of Congress over 80:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein is 85.
Sen. Chuck Grassley is 85.
Sen. Orrin Hatch is 84.
Sen. Richard Shelby is 84.
Sen. Jim Inhofe is 84.
Sen. Pat Roberts is 82.
Rep Eddie Bernice Johnson is 82
Rep Don Young is 85
Rep Sander Levin is 87
Rep Sam Johnson is 88
Rep Maxine Waters is 81
Sen Joe Manchin is 71
Lester Wolff, former representative from New York, is 100
Neal Smith, former rep from Iowa, is 99
I don't see a list of cabinet members by age, but here are some of them:
Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce is 81.
Don Coats, Director of National Intelligence, is 75
Sonny Purdue, Secretary of Agriculture, is 72.
William Barr, Attorney General, is 69.
Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy, is 69.
Ben Carson, Secretary of HUD is 67.
Elaine Chao, Secretary of Transportation, is 66.
Betsy Devos, Secretary of Education, is 61.
Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of Treasury, is 56.
Patrick Pizzella, Secretary of Labor, is 55.
Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, is 55.
Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense, is also 55.
Alex Azar, Secretary of HHS, is 52.
David Bernhardt, Secretary of the Interior, is 50. He is probably the youngest.
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, is 66.
Janet Yellen, former Fed chair, is now 73.
Paul Volcker, former Fed chair, is 92
Alan Greenspan, former Fed chair, is 93
Jeff Sessions, former Attorney General, is now 72.
Jim Mattis, former Secretary of Defense, is now 68.
Rex Tillerson, former Secretary of State, is now 67.
David Stockman is 72
Governor Kay Ivey of Alabama is 74.
Actors:
Arnold Schwarzenegger is 72
Sylvester Stallone is 73
Chuck Norris is 78
Michael Douglas is 74
Kirk Douglas, his father, is still alive at 102
William Shatner ("Kirk") is 88
Leonard Nimoy ("Spock") is 83.
Nichelle Nichols ("Uhura") is 86
George Takei ("Sulu") is 82
Walter Koenig ("Chekov") is 83
Harrison Ford is 77
George Lucas is 75
Mark Hamill is 67
Billy Dee Williams ("Lando Calrissian") is 82
James Earl Jones (voice of Darth Vader) is 88
David Prowse ("Darth Vader") is 84
Steven Spielberg is 72
Clint Eastwood is 89
Sean Connery is 89
Martin Sheen is 79
Christopher Walken is 76
Christopher Lloyd ("Doc") is 80
Al Pacino is 79
Robert De Niro is 76
Joe Pesci is 76
Robert Duvall is 88.
Woody Allen is 83
Willie Mays, baseball legend, is still alive at 87.
Betty White is 97.
Gene Hackman is 89.
Dustin Hoffman is 82.
Michael Caine is 86.
Donald Sutherland is 84.
Hal Holbrook is 87
Angela Lansbury is 93.
Dick Van Dyke is 93.
Julie Andrews is 83
Christopher Plummer ("The Sound of Music") is 89
Mel Brooks is 93.
Sidney Poitier is 92.
Jerry Stiller (father of George Costanza) is 92
Max von Sydow is 90
Ed Asner is 89
Robert Wagner is 89
John Astin ("Gomez Addams") is 89
Kim Novak is 86
Brigette Bardot is 84
Carol Burnett is 86
Joan Collins is 86
Alan Arkin is 85
Alan Alda is 83
Loretta Swit is 81
Mike Farrell is 80
Jamie Farr ("Corporal Klinger" in MASH) is 85
Richard Chamberlain is 85
Shirley Maclaine is 85
Warren Beatty is 82
Warren Buffet is 89
Charlie Munger is 95
Peter Lynch is 75
Carl Icahn is 83
George Soros is 89
Brazilian billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann is 80
Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim is 79
Larry Ellison is 75
Richard Branson is 69
Bill Gates is 63
John McAfee is 73.
Sophia Loren is 84
Judi Dench ("M" in 007) is 84
Judd Hirsch is 84
Danny Devito is 74
Jack Nicholson is 82
Dianne Keaton is 73
Morgan Freeman is 81
Tony Bennett is 92
Patrick Stewart is 78
Ian McKellen is 79
Anthony Hopkins is 81
Paul Hogan ("Crocodile Dundee") is 79
Ted Danson ("Sam Malone" on Cheers) is 71
Shelly Long ("Dianne Chambers") is 70
George Wendt ("Norm") is 70
John Ratzenberger ("Cliff Clavin") is 72
Shelly Duvall is 70
Rhea Perlman is 71
Meryl Streep is 70
Martin Scorsese is 76
Alex Tribek (Jeopardy) is 79
Chevy Chase is 75
Goldie Hawn is 73
Steve Martin is 74
Richard Dreyfuss is 71
Linda Rondstadt is 73
Linda Evans is 76
Raquel Welch is 79
Olivia Newton-John is 71
John Voight is 80
Lee Travino (golfer) is 79
Lee Majors is 80
David Letterman is 72
Robert Redford is 83
Barbra Streisand is 77
Queen Elizabeth of England is 93.
Prince Philip is 97
Prince Charles is 70
Camilla is 72
Pope Francis is 82
retired Pope Benedict XVI is 92
And look at this list of aging rock stars:
from https://theweek.com/articles/861750/coming-death-just-about-every-rock-legend
Bob Dylan (78 years old); Paul McCartney (77); Paul Simon (77) and Art Garfunkel (77); Carole King (77); Brian Wilson (77); Mick Jagger (76) and Keith Richards (75); Joni Mitchell (75); Jimmy Page (75) and Robert Plant (71); Ray Davies (75); Roger Daltrey (75) and Pete Townshend (74); Roger Waters (75) and David Gilmour (73); Rod Stewart (74); Eric Clapton (74); Debbie Harry (74); Neil Young (73); Van Morrison (73); Bryan Ferry (73); Elton John (72); Don Henley (72); James Taylor (71); Jackson Browne (70); Billy Joel (70); and Bruce Springsteen (69, but turning 70 next month).
Willie Nelson is 85
Dolly Parton is 73
Loretta Lynn is 87
Kenny Rogers is 81
Kris Kristofferson is 83
Mike Love (Beach Boys) is 78
Al Jardine (Beach Boys) is 77
Barbara Walters is 89
Ted Koppel is 79
Dan Rather is 87
Tom Brokaw is 79
Jim Lehrer is 85
Dianne Sawyer is 73
Wolf Blitzer is 71
Ted Turner is 80
Jane Fonda is 81
Connie Chung is 73
Roger Mudd is 91
Chris Wallace is 71
Bernard Shaw is 79
Michael Savage is 77
Bryant Gumbel is 70
Geraldo Rivera is 76
Jerome Corsi is 73
George Will is 78
Lesley Stahl is 77
Bob Woodward is 76
Carl Bernstein is 75
John Dean is 80
G. Gordon Liddy is 83
Larry King is 85
============
Update 9/16/19:
Legendary Rock and Roll Hall of Famer Ric Ocasek dies of natural causes. He was either 70 or 75. Also, Eddie Money died at age 70.
John Paul Stevens died in July at age 99.
Ross Perot died in July at 89.
Lee Iacoca died at 94
Gloria Vanderbilt died at 95
Bart Starr died at 85
Doris Day died at 97
Cokie Roberts died 9/17/19 at age 75
Diahann Carroll died 10/4/19 at age 84
Larry Junstrom from the band Lynyrd Skynyrd died Oct 5 at age 70.
Elijah Cummings dies 10/17/19 at age 68
Wow, half of these people will probably be dead within 2 years. I don't plan on commenting every time some old person dies, but I might for a couple of weeks.
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