Quote: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has the exhilarating task of forecasting the federal government’s budget deficit. The CBO expects the deficit to be about $900 billion this year and gradually rise to $1.4 trillion by 2029. But the CBO has been taking happy pills. I expect the deficit a decade from now to be more like $2 trillion. And note that the CBO doesn’t forecast recessions – those happy pills, remember? The next one could take the deficit to something like $3 trillion.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4253380-2-plus-trillion-federal-deficits-coming-will-weigh-stock-prices-sell-rallies-like-one
The article is by a guy named Gary Gordon, and he makes a persuasive case that the deficits a decade from now will be over $2 trillion per year. He doesn't really explain how they would jump to $3 trillion in a recession, but I guess he is assuming a combination of lower revenue and increased spending.
Anyways I want to make a note of this remark about the $3 trillion deficit. I actually think it is too high. John Mauldin forecasts a $2.3 trillion annual deficit by 2023, assuming there is a recession by then. And I think his forecast is too gloomy as well. According to my latest forecast, I don't see us hitting a $2 trillion deficit until 2031, even with recessions. I'm just pointing out that there are people more pessimistic than me.
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