Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Guess who's back ... tell a friend

M3 is back!  The website nowandfutures.com has reconstructed M3 using public information, with a proprietary tweak.  Only the Eurodollars amount is unknown, and it represented only 3% of the total.   I don't understand the formula, but most of it is taken from 4 public sources: M2, Institutional Money Market and two weekly reports from the Fed – H.8 and H.4.1.

Here are M3 amounts, using the last date that is in a quarter, starting with 2008.
2007-12-31 13217.70
2008-03-31 14083.09
2008-06-30 14219.85
2008-09-29 15838.96
2008-12-29 16548.56
2009-03-30 16554.70
2009-06-29 16419.11
2009-09-28 16325.43
2009-12-28 15953.31
2010-03-29 15866.70
2010-06-28 15508.50
2010-09-27 15719.64
2010-12-27 15976.30
2011-03-28 16257.76
2011-06-27 17149.10
2011-09-26 16959.77
2011-12-26 16892.36
2012-03-26 17081.06
2012-06-25 17325.76
2012-09-24 17384.79

Source:  nowandfutures.com

It might be interesting to come up with a calculation using only the public data.

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Update: I think this is too complicated.  Institutional money market funds are mostly invested in treasuries, and repos use treasuries as collateral, so if you were to include these you would have to back out the amount of treasuries to avoid double-counting.  It's easier just to take my other calculation, M2 + debt held by the public.

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