Saturday, April 6, 2013

12 steps to a crash



According to one blogger, the great crash has begun and is continuing in slow motion.  Here are the 12 dominoes.

"Cyprus has turned out, against all the odds, to be the first domino to head towards the second domino. That Number Two will be the eurozone bond market going from sick to dead. Only events can dictate the exact order of dominoes after that one. But there follows a sensible attempt to suggest one.
The third will be the release (0r leak) of official capital flight figures from Brussels. The fourth will be a consequent acceleration of capital flight. The fifth will be the release of Q3 eurozone economic data.
The sixth will be a Chinese export slowdown. Few people grasp this, but the EU represents 16% of all Beijing’s exports – just one percentage point behind the US.
The seventh will be Berlin backing away from further involvement, while maintaining a vice-like grip over Cyprus. The eighth a Greek default alongside Italian political stalemate. The ninth a chaotic German election. The tenth a major French banking collapse. The eleventh a banking sell-off on Wall Street, and the Dow starting to slide as the White House mirage fades.  The twelfth….the hyper-acceleration of a gold rush as global stockmarket confidence implodes."
--http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2013/04/06/the-saturday-essay-why-the-eurozones-capital-incontinence-is-the-beginning-of-the-end/

The Eurozone bond market is still alive, as interest rates have risen only modestly in the last month.  So if this is step 2 it looks like it isn't going to happen soon.

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