Many moons ago, I wrote an article (called "Obamacare saves $30 trillion") that has an error in it that I just noticed. It has to do with Medicare Unfunded Liabilities. I have 2 different numbers for January 1, 2009. I can't find which number is correct, thus this article.
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So to start with, I will go to the source - the Medicare Trustees Report, and I will start with 2008. So what was the Medicare Unfunded Liability as of January 1, 2008 for Hospital Insurance only, for both a 75 year time frame and infinite time frame?
2008 75-year unfunded:
"The present value of future expenditures less future tax income, decreased by the amount of HI trust fund assets on hand at the beginning of the projection, amounts to $12.4 trillion. This value is referred to as the 75-year “unfunded obligation” for the HI trust fund and is 7 percent larger than last year’s value of $11.6 trillion."
2008 infinite unfunded:
"over the infinite horizon, the HI unfunded obligations are projected to be $34.4 trillion."
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What about 2009? Look at the 2009 Medicare Trustees Report.
2009 75-year unfunded:
"The present value of future expenditures less future tax income, decreased by the amount of HI trust fund assets on hand at the beginning of the projection, amounts to $13.4 trillion. This value is referred to as the 75-year “unfunded obligation” for the HI trust fund and is 8 percent larger than last year’s value of $12.4 trillion.
2009 infinite unfunded:
"over the infinite horizon, the HI unfunded obligations are projected to be $36.4 trillion."
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Now look at 2010, using the 2010 Medicare Trustees Report.
2010 75-year unfunded:
"The present value of future expenditures less future tax income, decreased by the amount of HI trust fund assets on hand at the beginning of the projection, amounts to $2.4 trillion. This value is referred to as the 75-year “unfunded obligation” for the HI trust fund and is substantially lower than last year’s value of $13.4 trillion." The difference is because of "the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act".
2010 infinite unfunded:
"Over the infinite horizon, the HI program is thus projected to have a surplus of $0.6 trillion."
So these are the correct numbers. Obamacare supposedly saved $37 trillion in Medicare costs over the infinite horizon.
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For the sake of completeness, these are the 2012 numbers. The 2013 will be out shortly as well.
2012 75-year unfunded:
The present value of future expenditures less future tax income, decreased by the amount of HI trust fund assets on hand at the beginning of the projection, amounts to $5.3 trillion. This value is referred to as the 75-year “unfunded obligation” for the HI trust fund, and it is significantly higher than last year’s value of $3.0 trillion.
2012 infinite unfunded:
"Over the infinite horizon, the HI program thus has a projected deficit of $4.8 trillion."
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