The CBO just released their March 2013 monthly budget review on Friday, and I think it would be interesting to review it because this covers the first half of the fiscal year 2013.
I had previously done a budget projection in January for what it is worth, and wanted to compare the two.
Revenues are at 1197 ytd, which would make this only 2394 yearly, still less that the 2596 I was projecting.
Defense spending is way down. Only 315 has been spent year to date, making this 630 on a yearly basis, way less than the 671 I was projecting. This is a significant drop and is 6% less than 2012. Net interest expense hasn't increased since last year. Other expenses are down 8.7% from last year. Actual expenditures are at 1798 ytd, 3596 yearly, way less than the 3701 that I thought would occur. Entitlement spending continues its relentless march upwards, increasing about 6% from 2012.
The bottom-line: The deficit ytd is 601, annual 1202. It look like there will be another trillion dollar deficit. The sequester cuts are working, and government spending is shrinking, except for entitlement spending.
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Obama will likely have his first year without a trillion dollar-plus deficit in 2013. The CBO forecasts that it will slip to $845 billion this year and then drop down to $476 billion by 2016, Obama’s last full year in the White House.
Read more at http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/02/05/CBO-Warns-of-Exploding-Debt-in-Four-Years.aspx
The CBO believes in fairy tales and engages in wishful thinking. The only way for the deficit to drop to $850 billion this year would be for revenues to increase by 33% for the rest of the year. I don't think the deficit will ever drop below $1 trillion/year.
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