Friday, April 26, 2013

TCMDO change



I was going to quit posting but I started thinking about this.  Let me explain what is happening in the graph.

First, assume that TCMDO = wealth.  So debt owed by person A is an asset of person B.  If this is true, then you want the TCMDO level to increase year after year.  This is the Green line, and it shows debt increasing about 10% every single year, even during recessions, dating back to about 1955.  That is until the Great Recession, when it actually fell below zero.  It is now growing at about 3%, which is still not enough to account for interest and inflation.

The Blue line is the private sector, and it is hovering barely above zero.  You would expect this to grow at least 5% just to account for interest, so there is ongoing debt destruction and writeoffs going on.

The Red line is the government debt, and it is growing about 10%/year, but on a downward slope.

I expect the Green line to be about 3% for as far as the eye can see.

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