Monday, April 8, 2013

Another view of the endgame

In a nutshell:  first, a crisis in Europe, and the Fed steps in as the global lender of last resort.  A rapid devaluation of the dollar by 10% or more will cause flight from US government debt, causing money markets to collapse.

"To me, the most likely driver is a wave of corporate defaults coming from the Euro zone, forcing the Fed to become the lender of last resort (in fact, they already are) and triggering a repudiation in US Treasuries. As a consequence, the repudiation of US Treasuries would further spark the fall of the money market and probably that of a commodity market clearinghouse.  In this context, the price of gold would not fall."

The Fed would be forced to buy up almost all US debt.  But to do so it would have to pay very high interest rates, (unlike the 0.25% it pays today), higher than the interest it is receiving.  This would bankrupt the Fed.  Of course the Fed wouldn't actually be bankrupt because it can issue its own currency.  But this is where hyperinflation begins.

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