"Again, the reason bond yields are falling even as the Fed is getting out of the bond-buying business is that we are looking at a severe meltdown in global growth. It is not because of ‘technical reasons’ or because ‘there are no bonds to buy.’ In fact, the world is awash in sovereign debt. The reason why yields are so low is because they are predicting a meltdown in the global economy.”
Saturday, May 31, 2014
Thursday, May 22, 2014
Margin Debt
Read: This happened twice before, and each time stocks crashed.
It is now happening again.
"Margin debt – newly created money that is plowed into stocks – is the great accelerator on the way up. It inflates values and increases leverage, and when it spikes, it performs miracles. But it has a terrifying habit: after going into a majestic spike, it reverses abruptly right around the time stocks crash.
It is now happening again.
"Margin debt – newly created money that is plowed into stocks – is the great accelerator on the way up. It inflates values and increases leverage, and when it spikes, it performs miracles. But it has a terrifying habit: after going into a majestic spike, it reverses abruptly right around the time stocks crash.
Over the last 15 years, margin debt had three spikes and reversals:
The first spike peaked in March 2000 at a record of $278.5 billion, or 2.66% of GDP. By the time it reversed in April, the stale air was hissing out of stocks with epic speed.
The second spike peaked in July 2007 at $381.4 billion, or 2.60% of GDP. In November, stocks began to swoon. No one will ever forget what happened next.
The third spike – the most phenomenal yet – peaked in February 2014 at $465.7 billion, beating the prior record by 22%. It reached 2.73% of GDP, the highest ratio ever! In March, the spike reversed. And in April, it declined again."
Interest Rates
This chart is harder to see the trend in because of the general downward trend, but its still there, even the short-term bounce in Feb 2001 and 2008.
2000: On Jan 2000, the 10 year rate was 6.68%. In May 2000, it was at 6.29%. The rate declined steadily until Feb. 2001 at 4.92%, then rose a bit to 5.43% in May 2001, then dropped to 4.3% in Oct 2001 (about 35%), about when the recession ended.
2007: In May 2007, the rate was 4.9%, rising to 5.03% in June 2007. It then declined steadily until Feb. 2008 at 3.45% (a drop of about 31% from the high), rose a bit to 4.06% in May 2008, then dropped to 2.25% in Dec 2008 (about 56%) before rising. (The recession continued until June 2009).
2014: In Dec 2013, the rate hit 3.04%. It was at 2.82% on 4/2/14. In May it was at 2.52%. If past patterns repeat, it will decline steadily to about 1.5% (a drop of about 50% from the high) in Oct. 2015 before rising again.
SP 500
May 2000: SP 500 was at 1378 on 5/22/2000. It peaked on 8/28/2000 at 1520 and begin declining steadily thereafter.
May 2007: SP 500 was at 1515 on 5/21/2007. It peaked on 10/1/2007 at 1557, fell a bit, reached 1425 on 5/12/2008, and then fell off the cliff.
May 2014: SP 500 at 1888 on 5/21/2014, close to the all time high of 1897 on 5/13/14.
New Orders
May 2000: New Orders at 63,623. They fell off a cliff after September 2000.
May 2007: New Orders at 64,658. They fell of a cliff after July 2008 (well after the recession began).
May 2014: New Orders at 69,776 for March 2014 (the last month for which data is available).
Does history repeat?
2007: On 5/19/2007, initial jobless claims were at 302,000. They started rising rapidly in Oct. 2007, and the recession officially begin in Dec. 2007.
2014: On 5/17/2014, initial jobless claims (4 week moving average) were at 322,500.
But note: "Initial claims fell to 298,000 in the week ended May 10, revised up from an initial estimate of 297,000 and their lowest level since May 2007."
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303480304579577702274243882
Update: "The flip-flopping noise of the initial claims data continues as last week's spike and miss is rebounded into this week's beat and drop. At 300k - down 27k from last week - initial claims are at their lowest since May 2007 - practically as good as it gets. Continuing claims continue to fall - now at 2.63 million - to the lowest in the cycle and lowest since Nov 2007."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-29/initial-claims-drop-near-cycle-low-good-it-gets-levels
Friday, May 16, 2014
Top Cities #18
This is based on a survey combining quality of life and economic opportunity. In general, bigger is better, but big cities also can have decreasing quality of life. The raw score is in brackets. Cities not previously ranked get added in to the bottom. I added 7 new cities to make this 50. Compare to prior list. I don't think Paris has ever been ranked #1 before.
1. Paris (4) [38]
2. London (2) [55]
3. New York (3) [60]
4. Tokyo (1) [67]
5. Singapore (10) [42]
6. Toronto (11) [39]
7. Osaka (9) [76]
8. Chicago (13) [63]
9. Washington/Baltimore (14) [73]
10. Seoul (5) [133]
11. Los Angeles (6) [95]
12. Shanghai (7) [186]
13. Beijing (8) [209]
14. San Francisco (17) [58]
15. Hong Kong (12) [127]
16. Dubai (20) [186]
17. Kuala Lumpur (19) [198]
18. Boston (23) [68]
19. Sao Paolo (18) [216]
20. Moscow (15) [-]
21. Guangzhou/Foshan (16) [226]
22. Sydney (27) [36]
23. Dallas (25) [112]
24. Milan (29) [95]
25. Buenos Aires (26) [162]
26. Shenzhen (21) [264]
27. Bangkok (22) [235]
28. Taipei (30) [187]
29. Istanbul (24) [233]
30. Zurich (28) [211]
31. Mexico City (32) [232]
32. Tianjin (33) [272]
33. Oslo (38) [215]
34. Jakarta (31) [-]
35. Chongqing (34) [-]
36. Philadelphia (41) [109]
37. Wuhan (35) [-]
38. Copenhagen (43) [126]
39. Rhine-Ruhr (Dusseldorf) (new) [33]
40. Amsterdam/Rotterdam (Randstad) [53]
41. Geneva (36) [-]
42. Lagos (37) [-]
43. Melbourne (new) [54]
44. Mumbai (39) [-]
45. Manila (35) [-]
46. Frankfurt (new) [67]
47. Delhi (42) [-]
48. Berlin (new) [77]
49. Montreal (new) [79]
50. Vienna (new) [82]
1. Paris (4) [38]
2. London (2) [55]
3. New York (3) [60]
4. Tokyo (1) [67]
5. Singapore (10) [42]
6. Toronto (11) [39]
7. Osaka (9) [76]
8. Chicago (13) [63]
9. Washington/Baltimore (14) [73]
10. Seoul (5) [133]
11. Los Angeles (6) [95]
12. Shanghai (7) [186]
13. Beijing (8) [209]
14. San Francisco (17) [58]
15. Hong Kong (12) [127]
16. Dubai (20) [186]
17. Kuala Lumpur (19) [198]
18. Boston (23) [68]
19. Sao Paolo (18) [216]
20. Moscow (15) [-]
21. Guangzhou/Foshan (16) [226]
22. Sydney (27) [36]
23. Dallas (25) [112]
24. Milan (29) [95]
25. Buenos Aires (26) [162]
26. Shenzhen (21) [264]
27. Bangkok (22) [235]
28. Taipei (30) [187]
29. Istanbul (24) [233]
30. Zurich (28) [211]
31. Mexico City (32) [232]
32. Tianjin (33) [272]
33. Oslo (38) [215]
34. Jakarta (31) [-]
35. Chongqing (34) [-]
36. Philadelphia (41) [109]
37. Wuhan (35) [-]
38. Copenhagen (43) [126]
39. Rhine-Ruhr (Dusseldorf) (new) [33]
40. Amsterdam/Rotterdam (Randstad) [53]
41. Geneva (36) [-]
42. Lagos (37) [-]
43. Melbourne (new) [54]
44. Mumbai (39) [-]
45. Manila (35) [-]
46. Frankfurt (new) [67]
47. Delhi (42) [-]
48. Berlin (new) [77]
49. Montreal (new) [79]
50. Vienna (new) [82]
Thursday, May 15, 2014
April 1 was the peak
There are several indicators that the economy peaked on about April 1.
1. The Russell 2000 hit an all time-high on Mar 4, 2014 of 1208.65, and has been flat or declined slightly ever since.
2. The SP 500 reached 1878.04 on Mar 7. It reached a high of 1897.45 on May 13, which is not really that much higher.
3. The DJIA reached 16452.72 on Mar 7. The high was 16576 on Dec 31, 2014. The all-time high was 16715.44 on May 13. This is quite a bit higher than the number on Mar 7. This just shows that most of the stocks had hit their peak, just not the blue-chippers.
4. NYSE margin debt declined a little in March.
5. The 10-year Treasury rate peaked at 3.02 on Dec 31, 2014. On Mar 7, it was at 2.80. On Apr 2, it was at 2.82. It has never been that high since, and is currently at 2.54.
6. The public portion of the national debt was at 12,617 bn on Mar 30. As of May 12, it was 12,480 bn. While this is good from a fiscal sanity perspective, it is not good from a short-term financial flows perspective. This is $140 bn of tax revenue that was removed from the economy.
7. For what it is worth, my M6 index was flat during April, indicating a peak on Mar 30.
Other indicators to watch are new orders, and TMCDO, which still haven't peaked. And the WLIW, which is still positive.
What does this mean? Probably that a recession will begin within a few months. Or the economy could muddle through more than a year before some black swan event causes the bottom to drop out.
I've called a recession before and been wrong. Specifically, on December 21, 2012 (when gold prices started declining), July 26, 2013 (when I thought the Dow topped out), and on August 29, 2013 (when orders hit a peak), and on December 12, 2013. So my track record is pretty bad. But even a stopped clock is accurate twice a day, right?
See also Chartist Friend 2014 Stock Market Top Call.
It seems all the drivers of the economy as well as the artificial stimulus have run out of steam. The government deficits are much smaller. The Fed is still pumping at a reduced rate, but excess reserves suck up the extra money. Traditional bank loans (the main component of M2) are not increasing. The stock market is flat or declining.
1. The Russell 2000 hit an all time-high on Mar 4, 2014 of 1208.65, and has been flat or declined slightly ever since.
2. The SP 500 reached 1878.04 on Mar 7. It reached a high of 1897.45 on May 13, which is not really that much higher.
3. The DJIA reached 16452.72 on Mar 7. The high was 16576 on Dec 31, 2014. The all-time high was 16715.44 on May 13. This is quite a bit higher than the number on Mar 7. This just shows that most of the stocks had hit their peak, just not the blue-chippers.
4. NYSE margin debt declined a little in March.
5. The 10-year Treasury rate peaked at 3.02 on Dec 31, 2014. On Mar 7, it was at 2.80. On Apr 2, it was at 2.82. It has never been that high since, and is currently at 2.54.
6. The public portion of the national debt was at 12,617 bn on Mar 30. As of May 12, it was 12,480 bn. While this is good from a fiscal sanity perspective, it is not good from a short-term financial flows perspective. This is $140 bn of tax revenue that was removed from the economy.
7. For what it is worth, my M6 index was flat during April, indicating a peak on Mar 30.
Other indicators to watch are new orders, and TMCDO, which still haven't peaked. And the WLIW, which is still positive.
What does this mean? Probably that a recession will begin within a few months. Or the economy could muddle through more than a year before some black swan event causes the bottom to drop out.
I've called a recession before and been wrong. Specifically, on December 21, 2012 (when gold prices started declining), July 26, 2013 (when I thought the Dow topped out), and on August 29, 2013 (when orders hit a peak), and on December 12, 2013. So my track record is pretty bad. But even a stopped clock is accurate twice a day, right?
See also Chartist Friend 2014 Stock Market Top Call.
It seems all the drivers of the economy as well as the artificial stimulus have run out of steam. The government deficits are much smaller. The Fed is still pumping at a reduced rate, but excess reserves suck up the extra money. Traditional bank loans (the main component of M2) are not increasing. The stock market is flat or declining.
Top Cities #17
This is influenced by the Cities In Motion index, which ranks innovation, sustainability, and quality of life. I ignored Basel Switzerland because it is too small. The list has other flaws, like not even listing San Francisco, Hong Kong,Singapore or Mumbai, and generally downgrading Asian cities, but otherwise is pretty interesting. Of course, cities that weren't otherwise on my list start at the end, and cities can only move up or down 5 slots. Compare to prior list. The number in the bracket is the ranking in the Cities in Motion index.
1. Tokyo (4) [1]
2. London (6) [2]
3. New York (1) [3]
4. Paris (8) [5]
5. Seoul (10) [9]
6. Los Angeles (9) [12]
7. Shanghai (2) [73]
8. Beijing (3) [62]
9. Osaka (14) [8]
10. Singapore (5) [-]
11. Toronto (15) [29]
12. Hong Kong (7) [-]
13. Chicago (18) [19]
14. Washington/Baltimore (17) [20]
15. Moscow (12) [84]
16. Guangzhou (11) [-]
17. San Francisco (19) [20*]
18. Sao Paolo (13) [94]
19. Kuala Lumpur (24) [56]
20. Dubai (20) [63]
21. Shenzhen (16) [123]
22. Bangkok (22) [66]
23. Boston (28) [20*]
24. Istanbul (23) [75]
25. Dallas (30) [13]
26. Buenos Aires (21) [106]
27. Sydney (31) [17]
28. Zurich (33) [4]
29. Milan (29) [58]
30. Taipei (25) [81]
31. Jakarta (26) [125]
32. Mexico City (27) [101]
33. Tianjin (35) [99]
34. Chongqing (38) [114]
35. Wuhan (40) [112]
36. Geneva (new) [6]
37. Lagos (32) [-]
38. Oslo (new) [10]
39. Mumbai (34) [-]
40. Manila (35) [120]
41. Philadelphia (new) [11]
42. Delhi (37) [-]
43. Copenhagen (new) [14]
Suzhou falls off.
1. Tokyo (4) [1]
2. London (6) [2]
3. New York (1) [3]
4. Paris (8) [5]
5. Seoul (10) [9]
6. Los Angeles (9) [12]
7. Shanghai (2) [73]
8. Beijing (3) [62]
9. Osaka (14) [8]
10. Singapore (5) [-]
11. Toronto (15) [29]
12. Hong Kong (7) [-]
13. Chicago (18) [19]
14. Washington/Baltimore (17) [20]
15. Moscow (12) [84]
16. Guangzhou (11) [-]
17. San Francisco (19) [20*]
18. Sao Paolo (13) [94]
19. Kuala Lumpur (24) [56]
20. Dubai (20) [63]
21. Shenzhen (16) [123]
22. Bangkok (22) [66]
23. Boston (28) [20*]
24. Istanbul (23) [75]
25. Dallas (30) [13]
26. Buenos Aires (21) [106]
27. Sydney (31) [17]
28. Zurich (33) [4]
29. Milan (29) [58]
30. Taipei (25) [81]
31. Jakarta (26) [125]
32. Mexico City (27) [101]
33. Tianjin (35) [99]
34. Chongqing (38) [114]
35. Wuhan (40) [112]
36. Geneva (new) [6]
37. Lagos (32) [-]
38. Oslo (new) [10]
39. Mumbai (34) [-]
40. Manila (35) [120]
41. Philadelphia (new) [11]
42. Delhi (37) [-]
43. Copenhagen (new) [14]
Suzhou falls off.
Monday, May 12, 2014
Saturday, May 10, 2014
London tops super-rich list
London (AFP) - London has more billionaires than any other city in the world, and Britain has more billionaires per head of population than any other country, new data showed on Saturday.
The survey of Britain's super-rich compiled for the Sunday Times newspaper is likely to prompt debate in a country where many still struggle financially and where food banks are a fact of life, despite economic growth recently returning to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crash.
London is home to 72 of Britain's 104 sterling billionaires, well ahead of Moscow in second place with 48 people worth the equivalent of 1 billion pounds or more. New York is in third place with 43 billionaires, San Francisco in fourth place with 42, Los Angeles next with 38 and Hong Kong in sixth place with 34.
http://news.yahoo.com/london-tops-super-rich-city-list-survey-shows-225059524.html
New Zealand raises interest rates
"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised its official cash rate for the second time in two months, lifting rates to 3 per cent as it forges ahead with a policy-tightening cycle to ward off an inflation threat.
The RBNZ confirmed on Thursday it would increase interest rates to 3 per cent from 2.75 per cent amid a period of strong economic growth, in line with economists' expectations. The New Zealand economy grew by 3.5 per cent over the year to March, Governor Graeme Wheeler said, suggesting a slight upgrade from the previous estimate of 3.3 per cent. Last month, the New Zealand central bank became the first in the developed world to raise interest rates in this cycle.
The New Zealand dollar, or kiwi, jumped on the announcement, climbing to US86.24¢ from US85.78¢ defying the RBNZ's claim that the value of the currency is unsustainable. The kiwi rose almost 8 per cent from late January to its 52-week high of US87.16¢ on April 9."
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/new-zealand-raises-interest-rates-again-20140424-37526.html
Friday, May 9, 2014
Top Cities #16
Influenced by the budget of the local city hall. Most of these are estimates, in brackets. Compare to prior list. Chinese cities are very powerful. US cities, by contrast are 3rd-tier, because most spending is done at the federal, state or even county level. Singapore and Hong Kong include the total country revenue.
1. New York (2) [69]
2. Shanghai (7) [67]
3. Beijing (6) [61]
4. Tokyo (3) [60]
5. Singapore (9) [55]
6. London (1) [11]
7. Hong Kong (12) [55]
8. Paris (11) [30]
9. Los Angeles (4) [28] (Includes Los Angeles County)
10. Seoul (5) [23]
11. Guangzhou (15) [19]
12. Moscow (14) [15]
13. Sao Paolo (8) [7]
14. Osaka (18) [20]
15. Toronto (10) [10]
16. Shenzhen (21) [29]
17. Washington (19) [10]
18. Chicago (13) [6]
19. San Franciso (16) [4]
20. Dubai (25) [10]
21. Buenos Aires (26) [3]
22. Bangkok (17) [.4]
23. Istanbul (20) [2]
24. Kuala Lumpur (22) [1]
25. Taipei (23) [1]
26. Jakarta (24) [1]
27. Mexico City (28) [1]
28. Boston (33) [2.6]
29. Milan (34) [1.5]
30. Dallas (35) [1.4]
31. Sydney (29) [1]
32. Lagos (27) [0.1]
33. Zurich (38) [0.5]
34. Mumbai (31) [0.4]
35. Manila (30) [0.1]
36. Tianjin (new) [35]
37. Delhi (32) [0.1]
38. Chongqing (new) [28]
39. Suzhou (new) [22]
40. Wuhan (new) [16]
Mecca, Oslo, Dhaka and Melbourne fall off.
1. New York (2) [69]
2. Shanghai (7) [67]
3. Beijing (6) [61]
4. Tokyo (3) [60]
5. Singapore (9) [55]
6. London (1) [11]
7. Hong Kong (12) [55]
8. Paris (11) [30]
9. Los Angeles (4) [28] (Includes Los Angeles County)
10. Seoul (5) [23]
11. Guangzhou (15) [19]
12. Moscow (14) [15]
13. Sao Paolo (8) [7]
14. Osaka (18) [20]
15. Toronto (10) [10]
16. Shenzhen (21) [29]
17. Washington (19) [10]
18. Chicago (13) [6]
19. San Franciso (16) [4]
20. Dubai (25) [10]
21. Buenos Aires (26) [3]
22. Bangkok (17) [.4]
23. Istanbul (20) [2]
24. Kuala Lumpur (22) [1]
25. Taipei (23) [1]
26. Jakarta (24) [1]
27. Mexico City (28) [1]
28. Boston (33) [2.6]
29. Milan (34) [1.5]
30. Dallas (35) [1.4]
31. Sydney (29) [1]
32. Lagos (27) [0.1]
33. Zurich (38) [0.5]
34. Mumbai (31) [0.4]
35. Manila (30) [0.1]
36. Tianjin (new) [35]
37. Delhi (32) [0.1]
38. Chongqing (new) [28]
39. Suzhou (new) [22]
40. Wuhan (new) [16]
Mecca, Oslo, Dhaka and Melbourne fall off.
China to build high speed train across Bering Strait
China is considering building a high-speed railway across the Siberia and Bering Strait to Alaska, across Canada to the US. In not so distant future, people can take the train from China to the US, according to Beijing Times Thursday citing Wang Mengshu, a railway expert and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.
The proposed journey will start from China's northeast region, cross Siberia to Bering Strait, and run across the Pacific Ocean by undersea tunnel to reach Alaska, from Alaska to Canada, then on to its final destination, the US. To cross Bering Strait will require approximately 200km undersea tunnel, the technology, which is already in place will also be used on Fujian to Taiwan high-speed railway tunnel. The project will be funded and constructed by China. The details of this project are yet to be finalized.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014-05/08/content_17493399.htmThursday, May 8, 2014
Russia to colonize the Moon by 2030
MOSCOW, May 8 (RIA Novosti) – Russia has drafted a program for colonization of the moon, and plans to send the first expeditions to build a permanent lunar base in 2030, the Russian Izvestia daily said Thursday, citing an official document.
"The moon is a space object for the future exploration by terrestrial civilization, and a geopolitical competition for the Moon's natural resources may begin in the 21st century," said a report on a potential lunar program prepared by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Roscosmos space agency and Moscow State University.
The program aims to build an inhabited moon base and testing ground by the middle of the century, which would allow mineral extraction on Earth's only natural satellite.
The project calls on developing a range of long-distance space technology to ensure the country can explore the moon independently from foreign partners. Earlier proposals for lunar exploration focused on strong international cooperation, as it was believed no single country could afford interplanetary projects on its own.
Russia will plan separate three- or four-year-long lunar projects for the next 16 years, according to the plan. The first four will take place between 2016 and 2025 and will focus on defining the physical and chemical composition of the moons south pole, where the future base will be sited. Space roundtrips are scheduled for 2028-30, and manned lunar exploration for 2030-40.
The first stage will cost the government 28.5 billion roubles ($800 million), Izvestia said.
Previous lunar expeditions, which started with the USSR's Luna program in 1959 and the US landing the first man on the Moon 10 years later, discovered aluminum, iron, titanium, rare earths and other minerals."
=============
MOSCOW, May 08. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia will start colonizing the Moon in 2030, Izvestia daily reported on Thursday. The daily has received a draft concept of Russian lunar program developed by enterprises of the Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos), a Russian Academy of Sciences institute and Moscow State University.
Notably, the draft concept envisages “creation of a lunar testing ground and a base for extraction of natural resources,” the daily reported.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said in an article published in Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily on April 11 that Russia’s strategic goals in space exploration were linked to a broader presence on low Earth orbits, colonization of the Moon and launching exploration of Mars and other objects of the Solar System.
“Authors of the project do not rule out attracting private investors to lunar projects", and “first expeditions with cosmonauts’ landing to create a permanent lunar base are planned in 2030,” the daily reported.
It is needed to explore the Moon dynamically, the project authors recommended, because “leading space powers will explore and assign for themselves lunar territories suitable to provide future opportunities of practical use in the next 20-30 years.”
“The Moon is a first step on the way to the deep space,” chief scientific fellow of the Institute of Space Policy Ivan Moiseyev said. “Therefore, it is reasonable to use the Moon as a promising spaceport,” he added. “As for extraction of mineral resources on the Moon, it is senseless to deliver them to the Earth, because even if diamonds are found there, it will be unprofitable to bring them here all the same,” Moiseyev believes. “But in any case it is possible to start with oxygen generation, as it exists on the Moon in many chemical compounds,” the scientist noted.
Such large-scale projects as colonization of the Moon or Mars would hardly be funded from the state budget, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics Andrei Ionin said.
“Planet exploration by people will be a prerogative of private companies,” Ionin said. “There are already many such projects now that envisage Mars colonization, production of mineral resources on asteroids and similar initiatives. It is difficult to imagine that some government will be prepared to spend trillions for creation of lunar bases, because they have a good deal of other, more vital tasks, including medicine, education, army,” he added.
Roscosmos explained that initiatives in the federal space program would pass a comprehensive expertise at the level of experts and scientists of several industries, and after that the program would be submitted to the government, the daily reported.
Saturday, May 3, 2014
G34
| G34 as of 4/30/2014 | ||||||||
| Shares (M) | Shares (M) | Price | Price | Total (M) | Total (M) | |||
| Rank | Symbol | Company | 03/31/14 | 04/30/14 | 03/31/14 | 04/30/14 | 03/31/14 | 04/30/14 |
| 1 | AAPL | Apple Inc | 891.99 | 861.38 | 536.74 | 590.09 | 478,767 | 508,292 |
| 2 | XOM | Exxon Mobil | 4320 | 4320 | 97.68 | 102.41 | 421,978 | 442,411 |
| 3 | GOOG | 336.05 | 674.49 | 1,114.51 | 526.66 | 374,531 | 355,227 | |
| 4 | MSFT | Microsoft | 8300 | 8260 | 40.99 | 40.40 | 340,217 | 333,704 |
| 5 | BRK-A | Berkshire Hath | 1.65 | 1.65 | 187,350 | 193,275 | 309,128 | 318,904 |
| 6 | JNJ | Johnson Johnson | 2820 | 2830 | 98.23 | 101.29 | 277,009 | 286,651 |
| 7 | GE | General Electric | 10030 | 10040 | 25.89 | 26.89 | 259,677 | 269,976 |
| 8 | RDS-B | Royal Dutch Shell | 3150 | 3150 | 78.11 | 84.65 | 246,047 | 266,648 |
| 9 | WFC | Wells Fargo | 5260 | 5260 | 49.74 | 49.64 | 261,632 | 261,106 |
| 10 | WMT | Wal-Mart | 3230 | 3230 | 76.43 | 79.71 | 246,869 | 257,463 |
| 11 | RHHBY | Roche Holding | 6790 | 6790 | 37.72 | 36.65 | 256,119 | 248,854 |
| 12 | NSRGY | Nestle | 3190 | 3190 | 75.22 | 77.18 | 239,952 | 246,204 |
| 13 | CVX | Chevron | 1910 | 1910 | 118.91 | 125.52 | 227,118 | 239,743 |
| 14 | PG | Proctor Gamble | 2710 | 2710 | 80.60 | 82.55 | 218,426 | 223,711 |
| 15 | JPM | JP Morgan Chase | 3760 | 3790 | 60.71 | 55.98 | 228,270 | 212,164 |
| 16 | NVS | Novartis | 2430 | 2430 | 85.02 | 86.94 | 206,599 | 211,264 |
| 17 | IBM | IBM | 1040 | 1040 | 192.49 | 196.47 | 200,190 | 204,329 |
| 18 | PFE | Pfizer | 6380 | 6380 | 32.12 | 31.28 | 204,926 | 199,566 |
| 19 | VZ | Verizon | 4140 | 4140 | 47.57 | 46.73 | 196,940 | 193,462 |
| 20 | HSBC | HSBC Holdings | 3750 | 3750 | 50.83 | 51.32 | 190,613 | 192,450 |
| 21 | BHP | BHP Billiton | 2660 | 2660 | 67.77 | 70.54 | 180,268 | 187,636 |
| 22 | T | ATT | 5210 | 5210 | 35.07 | 35.70 | 182,715 | 185,997 |
| 23 | ORCL | Oracle | 4460 | 4460 | 40.91 | 40.88 | 182,459 | 182,325 |
| 24 | KO | Coca Cola | 4410 | 4410 | 38.66 | 40.79 | 170,491 | 179,884 |
| 25 | MRK | Merck | 2940 | 2940 | 56.77 | 58.56 | 166,904 | 172,166 |
| 26 | TM | Toyota | 1580 | 1580 | 112.90 | 108.42 | 178,382 | 171,304 |
| 27 | BUD | Anheuser-Busch | 1610 | 1610 | 105.30 | 105.82 | 169,533 | 170,370 |
| 28 | SSNLF | Samsung | 130.92 | 130.92 | 1,220.00 | 1,300.00 | 159,722 | 170,196 |
| 29 | TOT | Total SA | 2270 | 2270 | 65.60 | 71.24 | 148,912 | 161,715 |
| 30 | BAC | Bank of America | 10570 | 10570 | 17.20 | 15.14 | 181,804 | 160,030 |
| 31 | BP | BP plc | 3100 | 3100 | 48.10 | 50.62 | 149,110 | 156,922 |
| 32 | FB | 2550 | 2550 | 60.24 | 59.78 | 153,612 | 152,439 | |
| 33 | C | Citigroup | 3040 | 3040 | 47.59 | 47.90 | 144,674 | 145,616 |
| 34 | AMZN | Amazon | 459.26 | 459.26 | 336.36 | 304.13 | 154,477 | 139,675 |
| 7,708,065 | 7,808,403 | |||||||
| 101.30% |
M6 unchanged
| M6 | 03/31/14 | 04/31/14 |
| M2 | 11,149.5 | 11,191.30 |
| Public Debt | 12,616.9 | 12,493.70 |
| Fed Owned | -2,311.5 | -2,350.30 |
| G30 stocks | 7,128.9 | 7,242.60 |
| 28,583.8 | 28,577.3 | |
| -0.02% |
M6 is down slightly, but it is so close and there are so many uncertainties that it is a statistical dead heat. I don't think anybody reads this blog, and I write it for my own enjoyment. But in case anyone is reading this and is curious, M6 is my own measure of the money supply. I include stocks because they serve somewhat like money, being easily liquidated (unlike real estate). Also, QE goes into stocks. And when stocks decline, there is a tendency to counterbalance this by growing the national debt. I would include corporate bonds if I could find a way that makes sense. Ideally, you would want M6 to grow about 0.5% per month, but one month of flatness doesn't really mean anything. The biggest reason this was flat was because of people paying their taxes, which shrank the national debt slightly.
Friday, May 2, 2014
Top Cities #15
Influenced by cost of living. Singapore is the most expensive city in the world. Compare to prior list.
1. London (5) [276]
2. New York (7) [236]
3. Tokyo (8) [206]
4. Los Angeles (6) [174]
5. Seoul (4) [168]
6. Beijing (1) [123]
7. Shanghai (2) [147]
8. Sao Paolo (3) [155]
9. Singapore (14) [299]
10. Toronto (15) [179]
11. Paris (16) [285]
12. Hong Kong (17) [222]
13. Chicago (9) [166]
14. Moscow (11) [158]
15. Guangzhou (10) [120]
16. San Francisco (20) [217]
17. Bangkok (12) [114]
18. Osaka (13) [150]
19. Washington (24) [208]
20. Istanbul (22) [125]
21. Shenzhen (18) [122]
22. Kuala Lumpur (21) [114]
23. Taipei (28) [110]
24. Jakarta (19) [102]
25. Dubai (30) [164]
26. Buenos Aires (29) [110]
27. Lagos, Nigeria (32) [146]
28. Mexico City (23) [109]
29. Sydney (33) [280]
30. Manila/Makati (25) [105]
31. Mumbai (26) [69]
32. Delhi (27) [62]
33. Boston (36) [184]
34. Milan (39) [172]
35. Dallas (35) [152]
36. Mecca, Saudi Arabia (31) [108]
37. Oslo (new) [270]
38. Zurich (new) [265]
39. Dhaka, Bangladesh (34) [60]
40. Melbourne (new) [250]
1. London (5) [276]
2. New York (7) [236]
3. Tokyo (8) [206]
4. Los Angeles (6) [174]
5. Seoul (4) [168]
6. Beijing (1) [123]
7. Shanghai (2) [147]
8. Sao Paolo (3) [155]
9. Singapore (14) [299]
10. Toronto (15) [179]
11. Paris (16) [285]
12. Hong Kong (17) [222]
13. Chicago (9) [166]
14. Moscow (11) [158]
15. Guangzhou (10) [120]
16. San Francisco (20) [217]
17. Bangkok (12) [114]
18. Osaka (13) [150]
19. Washington (24) [208]
20. Istanbul (22) [125]
21. Shenzhen (18) [122]
22. Kuala Lumpur (21) [114]
23. Taipei (28) [110]
24. Jakarta (19) [102]
25. Dubai (30) [164]
26. Buenos Aires (29) [110]
27. Lagos, Nigeria (32) [146]
28. Mexico City (23) [109]
29. Sydney (33) [280]
30. Manila/Makati (25) [105]
31. Mumbai (26) [69]
32. Delhi (27) [62]
33. Boston (36) [184]
34. Milan (39) [172]
35. Dallas (35) [152]
36. Mecca, Saudi Arabia (31) [108]
37. Oslo (new) [270]
38. Zurich (new) [265]
39. Dhaka, Bangladesh (34) [60]
40. Melbourne (new) [250]
Kinshasa, Tianjin and Dongguan fall off.
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