Thursday, April 25, 2019

April 23 was the Peak

On April 23, 2019,  the S and P closed at 2,933, an all time-high.  Yesterday, April 24, it closed at 2927, so it slipped a little, but not much.

The Dow closed at 26,656, which wasn't an all-time high but it was close.  The Dow's high was on October 3, 2018 when it closed at 26,828.

For the week ending April 13, 2019, jobless claims were only 192,000.  This was a 50-year low. "New claims have totaled less than 200,000 for the second week in a row, a feat last accomplished in the fall of 1969, when Richard Nixon was in his first year as president." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-dive-even-lower-to-192000-sit-at-nearly-50-year-low-2019-04-18  Hmm, comparisons to Nixon again.

So if April 23 was the Peak, what comes after the Peak?  Class, repeat after me.  The stages in a business cycle are trough, recovery, expansion, peak, _________.   So if we are after the Peak does that mean we are in a __________.

No, no, please no, not that, don't say the word. It can't be.  The stock market is still soaring, right?  An jobless claims are below 200,000, right.  Right?

Update: The S and P closed at 2939 on April 26.

Update 2: The S and P closed at 2945 on April 30.

Update 3 (May 7): The S and P 500 was actually 2945.83 on 4/30/19.  It was 2945.64 on 5/3/19, within a hair breadth of being the same number.  So let's call 5/3/19 the Peak.  Also on 5/3/19 came a report that the unemployment rate had dropped from 3.8% in March to 3.6% in April, the lowest since December 1969. However, the labor force participation rate also dropped.  Anyways, after the Peak, business is still good, but it is receding, and therefore it is call a ________.  It's possible the SP could rise again and that the unemployment rate could drop some more, but I think this is it.  Especially since the Dow dropped 473 points today (5/7).


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