| Memo | Memo | ||||||||
| Debt | Debt % | Net | SS | ||||||
| Year | Revenues | Outlays | Deficit | Public | GDP | of GDP | Interest | Outlays | |
| 2018 | 3,329 | 4,108 | -779 | 15,751 | 20,236 | 77.8% | 325 | 982 | |
| 2019 | 3,515 | 4,416 | -901 | 16,636 | 21,252 | 78.3% | 383 | 1,039 | |
| 2020 | 3,686 | 4,604 | -918 | 17,601 | 22,120 | 79.6% | 465 | 1,102 | |
| 2021 | 3,841 | 4,830 | -989 | 18,626 | 22,939 | 81.2% | 528 | 1,171 | |
| 2022 | 4,012 | 5,061 | -1,049 | 19,795 | 23,778 | 83.2% | 571 | 1,245 | |
| 2023 | 4,208 | 5,329 | -1,121 | 20,976 | 24,672 | 85.0% | 641 | 1,323 | |
| 2024 | 4,448 | 5,577 | -1,129 | 22,112 | 25,642 | 86.2% | 692 | 1,403 | |
| 2025 | 4,647 | 5,835 | -1,188 | 23,300 | 26,656 | 87.4% | 720 | 1,487 | |
| 2026 | 4,956 | 6,156 | -1,200 | 24,500 | 27,667 | 88.6% | 775 | 1,574 | |
| 2027 | 5,254 | 6,468 | -1,214 | 25,714 | 28,738 | 89.5% | 833 | 1,664 | |
| 2028 | 5,447 | 6,778 | -1,331 | 27,044 | 29,862 | 90.6% | 866 | 1,759 | |
| 2029 | 5,672 | 7,095 | -1,423 | 28,467 | 31,006 | 91.8% | 930 | 1,856 | |
| 2030 | 5,804 | 7,453 | -1,649 | 30,116 | 32,246 | 93.4% | 930 | 1,977 | |
| 2031 | 6,036 | 7,813 | -1,776 | 31,892 | 33,536 | 95.1% | 985 | 2,066 | |
| 2032 | 6,278 | 8,199 | -1,921 | 33,813 | 34,878 | 96.9% | 1,049 | 2,162 | |
| 2033 | 6,529 | 8,599 | -2,070 | 35,883 | 36,273 | 98.9% | 1,119 | 2,256 | |
| 2034 | 6,790 | 9,023 | -2,232 | 38,115 | 37,724 | 101.0% | 1,195 | 2,358 | |
| 2035 | 7,062 | 9,473 | -2,411 | 40,526 | 39,232 | 103.3% | 1,277 | 2,468 | |
| 2036 | 7,344 | 9,930 | -2,586 | 43,112 | 40,802 | 105.7% | 1,366 | 2,566 | |
| 2037 | 7,638 | 10,432 | -2,794 | 45,906 | 42,434 | 108.2% | 1,461 | 2,690 | |
| 2038 | 7,944 | 10,943 | -3,000 | 48,905 | 44,131 | 110.8% | 1,565 | 2,802 | |
| 2039 | 8,261 | 11,486 | -3,224 | 52,129 | 45,896 | 113.6% | 1,677 | 2,924 | |
| 2040 | 8,592 | 11,999 | -3,407 | 55,537 | 47,732 | 116.3% | 1,798 | 3,041 | |
| 2041 | 8,935 | 12,536 | -3,600 | 59,137 | 49,642 | 119.1% | 1,927 | 3,162 | |
| 2042 | 9,293 | 13,097 | -3,804 | 62,940 | 51,627 | 121.9% | 2,064 | 3,289 | |
| 2043 | 9,665 | 13,672 | -4,007 | 66,947 | 53,692 | 124.7% | 2,203 | 3,415 | |
| 2044 | 10,051 | 14,282 | -4,231 | 71,178 | 55,840 | 127.5% | 2,343 | 3,563 | |
| 2045 | 10,453 | 14,902 | -4,448 | 75,626 | 58,074 | 130.2% | 2,491 | 3,699 | |
| 2046 | 10,871 | 15,530 | -4,658 | 80,284 | 60,397 | 132.9% | 2,647 | 3,823 | |
| 2047 | 11,306 | 16,220 | -4,914 | 85,198 | 62,812 | 135.6% | 2,810 | 3,989 | |
| 2048 | 11,758 | 16,916 | -5,157 | 90,356 | 65,325 | 138.3% | 2,982 | 4,135 | |
| 2049 | 12,229 | 17,647 | -5,418 | 95,774 | 67,938 | 141.0% | 3,162 | 4,294 | |
| 2050 | 12,718 | 18,409 | -5,691 | 101,464 | 70,655 | 143.6% | 3,352 | 4,458 | |
| 2051 | 13,227 | 19,181 | -5,954 | 107,418 | 73,482 | 146.2% | 3,551 | 4,607 | |
| 2052 | 13,756 | 20,022 | -6,266 | 113,685 | 76,421 | 148.8% | 3,760 | 4,799 | |
| 2053 | 14,306 | 20,868 | -6,562 | 120,247 | 79,478 | 151.3% | 3,979 | 4,967 | |
| 2054 | 14,878 | 21,781 | -6,903 | 127,150 | 82,657 | 153.8% | 4,209 | 5,174 | |
| 2055 | 15,473 | 22,709 | -7,235 | 134,385 | 85,963 | 156.3% | 4,450 | 5,364 |
This is based on the theory that there is no crisis in Medicare or Social Security. Nothing will happen in 2026 or 2032. Just pay them as part of the general budget. Social Security is 6.25% of GDP in 2053, and Medicare is 5.0% of GDP, and the interest rate is 3.5% that year.
The problem isn't any of these, except maybe interest. The problem is an imbalance of revenue and expenses. You can really see the problem start about 2033, where the deficit is $2 billion per year. The deficit jumps above $3 trillion per year in 2038 (only 5 years later), and then $4 trillion in 2043, $5 trillion 2048, and $6 trillion in 2052. So just increase revenue (taxes) and decrease expenses before 2033 and we can fix it, right?
My previous projection showed a crisis in 2043, so this is 10 years later.
I've done lots of projections over the years, and this is the most optimistic yet.
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