Taking Vitamin D will reduce your risk of catching Covid by 54%

 Boston University’s Dr Michael Holick found in his previous research that people who have enough vitamin D are 54 percent less likely to catch coronavirus in the first place. Following on that work, he and his team have found that people who don’t get enough of the vitamin are far more likely to become severely ill, develop sepsis or even die after contracting coronavirus. Because vitamin D deficiency is common in people with other disease that raise coronavirus risks, it’s impossible to say exactly how many lives would be spared if we all got our daily dose of the sunshine vitamin. But we know that about 42 percent of the US population is vitamin D deficient. If that rate held true for the more 203,000 Americans who died of coronavirus, perhaps some 85,000 would have fared better with improved vitamin D levels.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/09/vitamin-d/

Also read https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8774015/Could-getting-vitamin-D-reduce-COVID-19-death-risks-52.html

Dr Holick and his colleagues took blood samples from 235 patients admitted to hospitals in Tehran for COVID-19. Overall, 67 percent of the patients had vitamin D levels below 30 ng/mL. There isn't a clear marker for the ideal level of vitamin D, but 30 ng/mL is considered a sufficient. Anything  below that is 'insufficient,' but won't necessarily have broad-ranging health consequences, while levels below 20 ng/mL are considered 'deficient.'   In the US, an estimated 42 percent of people are vitamin D deficient, but the rate varies considerably in different demographics. 

Also: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marlamilling/2020/09/26/adequate-vitamin-d-levels-cuts-risk-of-dying-from-covid-19-in-half-study-finds/#1778c6e95285

The Orville

 This looks interesting.  The captain, Ed Mercer (played by Seth MacFarlane), has a unique sense of humor.  I like it so far - much better than the other recent Star Trek spinoffs.

Silver drops below $23 per ounce

The current price (9/24/20 at 10:30am) is $22.88 per ounce.  The silver price was over $29 per ounce just a month ago.

What is causing this?  My uneducated opinion - everyone is fleeing to the dollar as a safe haven.  This price drop is similar to barometric pressure dropping - it is an indicator that an economic storm is coming.  Another way of seeing this is that the market got hooked on the flow of cash that has dried up, and everything is dropping - the stock market, silver, etc.  As soon as the next stimulus bill passes, which probably won't be this year, the markets will jump again.  

The value of the dollar has risen against commodities due to its relative scarcity.  This is deflationary and indicates another recession is coming.

Digital Dollars

Read: In Unprecedented Monetary Overhaul, The Fed Is Preparing To Deposit "Digital Dollars" Directly To "Each American"

This is an article published by Zerohedge by an anonymous source, that claims that Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is proposing basically the following.  First, give each American a digital bank account directly at the Federal Reserve.  Second, give the Fed the authority to issue "recession insurance bonds", which would be an asset on the Fed's balance sheet and allow it to create digital cash, which would be wired directly to each American. This would partially replace the current banking system.  Third, at some point get rid of physical cash and replace it with digital cash.  It is worth a read.

Crisis in 2049

 Here is my latest projection.

Here is my latest projection, showing that the public debt will exceed 150% of GDP in 2049.

Compare this to the prior one, which showed the 150% level reached in 2052.  And before that, I had one showing 2047 as being the date of a crisis.

Update:  The actual public debt at the end of FY2020 was 21,015 instead of the 20,270 shown here.  Also this should be updated with the extended long term budge projections, updated Sept 2020, available here: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-09/51119-2020-09-ltbo_0.xlsx

However, there will likely be another stimulus package in December, so I will wait to do this until after that.

The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook

 Download the latest CBO long-term forecast here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56598

I just did a relatively rosy forecast a few weeks ago that saw the 150% debt to GDP being surpassed in 2052.  The CBO sees that level reached by about 2042.  Here is a warning from the report: If debt as a percentage of GDP rises indefinitely, then debt will become unsustainable because the costs of financing deficits and servicing the debt will consume an ever-growing proportion of the nation’s income.

By 2050, the CBO predicts that debt as a percentage of GDP will reach 195% by 2050, whereas I was only predicting 148% in that year.

The CBO doesn't see a tipping point:  In CBO’s assessment, the debt-to-GDP ratio has no set tipping point at which a crisis becomes likely or imminent; nor is there an identifiable set point at which interest costs as a percentage of GDP become unsustainable.  

I need to update my forecast when I have time.

My question is: can we keep incurring massive deficits forever?  Have we truly discovered the magical money tree, the fountain of youth?  Or will the money tree stop growing fruit and die at some point?

Star Trek Discovery is a horrible show

 Just look at the cast:

The main star in Michael Burnham, which sounds like a guy, but its actually an ugly androgynous black chick with short hair.  She is also bisexual (I wish I didn't know that), having feelings for the weird chick Sylvia Tilly and for the weird effeminate dude Ash Tyler.  She was in the brig for mutiny but for some reason they let her command the latest starship.  She was supposedly the foster brother of Spock and knows how to use the Vulcan nerve pinch. She alternates between being full of energy and crying when her feelings get hurt.

Saru is this ugly alien of the Kelpien race (whatever that is).  He is the equivalent of Spock or Data on the show but more boring.

Ash Tyler (aka Voq) sounds like a girl, but is actually  is the Chief of Security.  He is a Klingon but looks like a human due to heavy-duty plastic surgery.  He is sort of the equivalent of Worf.  He is effeminate and has PTSD due to being raped by a Klingon woman - (I wish I didn't know that).  He is kind of dating Michael, who definitely wears the pants in the relationship.

Paul Stamets is a science officer who studies mushrooms and fungi. He looks normal with blond hair and blue eyes, but he is gay.  One episode shows him kissing his ugly gay boyfriend Doctor Hugh Culber (I wish I didn't see that), about which nothing is notable except his gayness and him being killed by Ash Tyler. 

Sylvia Tilly is an engineer (like Scotty), notable only for having red hair and being fat AND a marathon runner and a loner and obnoxious and having allergies and for being very ambitious, backstabbing any female around her.  She keeps a photo of her with her dream guy/girl Michael Burnham.

Gabriel Lorca is an asshole tough white guy.  He was a father figure to Michael Burnham but later "groomed" her, (whatever that means, and I don't want to know).  He was captain of the USS Discovery, but then made the very poor choice of recruiting Michael Burnham to help him.  He was previously the sole survivor of the USS Buran, which caused crew members to distrust him, because a captain is supposed to go down with his ship.  He may have killed Michael Burnham, although that may have been in an alternate universe or she might have survived, not sure. He was killed a few episodes in by Empress Philippa Georgiou, although that may have been in an alternate universe.

Christopher Pike was captain of the Enterprise and who temporarily commanded the Discovery.  He is the only normal person on the show.

Philippa Georgiou is this ugly Asian (actually Malaysian in real life and in the show as well) human who was Empress of Terra in the alternate universe where she killed Gabriel Lorca.  She was commanding officer of the USS Shenzhou.  She keeps trying to make peace with the Klingons who don't want peace. She refuses to fire on them and they predictably heavily damage her ship.  She was killed by a Klingon warrior in hand-to-hand combat.  (In one episode, Ash Tyler/ Voq apparently engages in cannibalism and eats her remains - I wish I didn't know that).

It's a bunch of screwed up dysfunctional people who keep blowing things up randomly with laser beams, and jumping in and out of warp, and in and out of the alternate universe.  The game of thrones in space.  Which has nothing to do with the Star Trek universe.

See the list of episodes and their descriptions: https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Category:DIS_episodes

US Government Cash on Hand

The Federal Government is stockpiling cash in preparation for another crisis.

On 7/31/2020, the US Treasury had $1,763 bn ($1.76 trillion) in its checking account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 On 8/31/2020, the US Treasury had $1,705 bn ($1.7 trillion) in its checking account.  So the balance went down $58 billion.

During August 2020, it sold $1,652 bn of marketable securities and it redeemed $1,469 bn of marketable securities, for an increase of $182 bn.  (Source: https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/files/20083100.pdf)

The August 2020 deficit was $198 billion.  If you add $58 billion to $182 billion, that gives you $240 billion, which more than covers the deficit.  There are other factors affecting the balance as well, that is why this doesn't add up.

Anyways on a cash basis, the US Treasury has plenty of it.  Even if for some reason it couldn't borrow money for an entire year, it would be able to pay all of its bills.

Question: The Treasury account at the FRBNY is a liability to the Fed.  Where does the Fed invest its assets?  Almost all of it is invested in US Treasury Notes and Bonds and in Mortgage Backed Securities.  The Treasury bills are mostly held by the public, with a small percentage held by the Fed.

If for some reason the Treasury needed more money, how could it get more?  It would sell $X billion of notes or bonds at an auction.  The amount that didn't sell to the public would be purchased by a primary dealer.  The Fed would then buy the notes or bonds from the primary dealer at a small markup.  So it is a circle.  In effect, the Treasury swaps its securities to the Fed in exchange for cash.

Is there a limit to how much of this swapping can occur?  No, except for the legal limit on the debt, which is currently suspended until August 1, 2021.  But Congress will just raise or suspend the debt limit again.  So in effect there is no limit.  

What is the end game here?  The government will never default on its debt.  It will also never pay it back.  The ratio of debt to GDP is irrelevant because the government can always borrow more.  It is a giant Ponzi scheme.  In the end, the dollar will be destroyed as a currency.  How?  By inflation.  It doesn't have to be hyperinflation, just regular inflation.  With the Rule of 72, if the inflation rate hits 6%, then the value of the dollar will drop by half in 12 years.  I would say that any inflation over this amount is a huge danger to the system.

The Treasury and Fed think that they can control inflation with higher interest rates and taxes.  Paul Volcker jacked up the interest rates to 20% in 1980 and the prime rate reached 21.5% in 1981, and this caused a recession and killed inflation.  He in effect drove the economy off the cliff.  So yes it is possible to control inflation with raising interest rates.  However, I think this a freak incident unlikely to ever occur again because this takes a huge political will ("giant brass balls") and a deep understanding of how the system works.  Nobody today would have the guts to do such a thing.  Also, the national debt was much smaller in 1980, it was only $900 billion, so the interest wasn't such a big problem.

So the real question is when will inflation reach the danger zone?  I don't know, but we can expect an economic recovery after the election, whoever wins, and then it could just take a couple of years, if the Fed doesn't proactively fight it, which they have said they won't.  So possibly by as early as 2023.  And then Medicare will run out of money by 2026 or even earlier adding fuel to the fire.

================

Update: On 9/30/20, the Treasury had $1,782 bn in its checking account.

Bladerunner 2020

 

This is actual drone footage set to the Bladerunner 2049 soundtrack.

Projected Medicare Expenditures through 2060

 This is an attempt to project Medicare expenditures through 2060.  I am basing it on my latest projection in the post Crisis in 2052.  I take the Medicare expenditures as a percent of GDP from the 2020 Medicare Trustees Report in Table V.B2.  Here is what I come up with:

		Projected	CBO		Medicare
Year	GDP	Health	Medicare	Medicare %	Expend
2019	21,220	1,258
2020	20,649	1,399	862	3.85%	800
2021	20,997	1,419	810	3.95%	800
2022	22,077	1,559	973	4.06%	900
2023	22,975	1,578	1,013	4.19%	1,000
2024	23,956	1,625	1,036	4.32%	1,000
2025	25,010	1,776	1,158	4.45%	1,100
2026	26,130	1,890	1,240	4.58%	1,200
2027	27,287	2,011	1,328	4.71%	1,300
2028	28,462	2,209	1,491	4.84%	1,400
2029	29,591	2,207	1,450	4.94%	1,500
2030	30,732	2,411	1,611	5.17%	1,600
2031	32,300	2,615		5.27%	1,700
2032	33,900	2,819		5.37%	1,800
2033	35,600	3,023		5.47%	1,900
2034	37,400	3,227		5.57%	2,100
2035	39,300	3,431		5.66%	2,200
2036	41,300	3,635		5.72%	2,400
2037	43,000	3,839		5.78%	2,500
2038	44,900	4,043		5.84%	2,600
2039	46,800	4,247		5.89%	2,800
2040	48,800	4,451		5.94%	2,900
2041	50,900	4,629		5.96%	3,000
2042	53,100	4,814		5.98%	3,200
2043	55,800	5,007		6.00%	3,300
2044	58,600	5,207		6.02%	3,500
2045	61,500	5,415		6.04%	3,700
2046	64,600	5,632		6.04%	3,900
2047	67,800	5,857		6.05%	4,100
2048	71,200	6,092		6.05%	4,300
2049	74,800	6,335		6.06%	4,500
2050	78,500	6,589		6.06%	4,800
2051	82,400	6,852		6.07%	5,000
2052	86,500	7,126		6.08%	5,300
2053	90,800	7,411		6.09%	5,500
2054	95,300	7,708		6.10%	5,800
2055	100,100	8,016		6.10%	6,100
2056	105,100	8,337		6.12%	6,400
2057	110,400	8,670		6.14%	6,800
2058	115,900	9,017		6.15%	7,100
2059	121,700	9,378		6.16%	7,500
2060	127,800	9,753		6.17%	7,900

The column titled Projected Health is the total projected health spending that year including Medicare, Medicaid, health tax credits, and children's health.  The last column titled Medicare Expend is just the Medicare portion.  

Note that the HI Trust Fund will be depleted in 2026, so any projection after that is speculative.  Probably the spending will just continue and be funded from general revenues, which means it will be borrowed.  And then it is hard to see how that can continue after 2052.

New York is the next Detroit

New York City commercial real estate deals have hit a brick wall as the pandemic continues to roil the local economy. According to the Real Estate Board of New York, investment sales dropped by a 32% drop in transaction volume and a 54% plunge in total consideration compared to the first half of 2019, and a record low since the Real Estate Board of New York began reporting the data. Apartment buildings suffered the biggest drops in prices, at 50% on average. Offices and hotels saw decreases of 28% and 37%, respectively. Cuomo and DiBlasio have stuck the knife so deep into New York it may never recover. Demographics mean the next mayor will be worse than DiBlasio, as hard as that is to believe. Detroit is going to look like a paradise compared to New York if something doesn't change soon. Why does anyone want to live in the largest concrete jungle in the world, where everything is closed, and there's nothing to do. And the risk of turning a corner only to encounter a violent mob, with no police presence to protect you. Once out of that dump, people will not go back. New York will become another Detroit within 15 years. City services are terrible. Violence and safety are notably worse. The NYPD is becoming toothless lions because of the administration. Education and all city services are quickly becoming desperate. Once Wall Street becomes totally computerized, and the money is gone. Say goodbye to the greatest city in the World. The Pandemic is only part of the problem. The other half is soaring crime, rioting & arson. No working-class person wants to put up with angry mobs and soaring taxes. New York already had an Exodus problem prior to the Pandemic. It just speeds it up a great deal. Move over Detroit and Baltimore, New York is going to join you! 

https://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2020/09/nyc-real-estate-market-crash-retail.html

It takes a long time for a great city to decline.  Detroit was a great city once.  It was the 5th largest city in the country in 1950 - New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Detroit.  It had beautiful skyscrapers, most of which are now abandoned.  It had the country's second largest department store - Hudson's (after Macy's in NYC).  The decline of Detroit happened in the 1950s, and it has probably bottomed out now, so it took 70 years for it to decline.

New York is a great city, but it is on the decline.  It will take a very long time for it to fall.  Part of the decline is permanent vacancies.  There are buildings in New York that will never recover from the current crisis.  They will be foreclosed on and abandoned, not worth paying property taxes and insurance on.  And once buildings start to be abandoned, the rot spreads.  Why pay a premium for space when the building next door is abandoned - theoretically, you could just move to the vacant building.  Once real estate is not profitable it won't be maintained properly, and then it just takes a few years for it to be blighted.  The city could manage this aggressively by tearing down blighted buildings but it probably won't because of nostalgia and cost.  Skyscrapers are very well designed and can exist for hundreds of years even in blighted form.  But that is what the future of New York holds - lots of abandoned, blighted skyscrapers, and lots of poor desperate people.  And it is all DiBlasio's fault. 

==========================

See https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/why-are-there-so-many-shuttered-storefronts-in-the-west-village 

Abandoned storefronts have long been a hallmark of economic depression and high crime rates, but the West Village doesn’t have either of those. Instead, what it has are extremely high commercial rents, which cause an effect that is not dissimilar. “High-rent blight” happens when rising property values, usually understood as a sign of prosperity, start to inflict damage on the city economics. Compounding the problem is the fact that the closed storefronts often stay that way, sometimes for years, in an apparent contradiction of the law of supply and demand. If a storefront remains empty for a long time (like this restaurant, which has been shuttered for more than six years), basic economics suggest that the price being charged is too high.

The August 2020 Deficit was $198 billion

The federal budget deficit in August 2020 was $198 billion, CBO estimates, $3 billion less than the deficit in August of last year. The cumulative federal budget deficit for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2020 was $3.0 trillion [actually $3.002 tn], CBO estimates, $1.9 trillion more than the deficit recorded for the same period last year. CBO projects that the 2020 deficit will total $3.3 trillion.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-09/56552-MBR.pdf

So, the September deficit is expected to be about $300 billion.

Where did the money go?

The Small Business Administration’s outlays were $575 billion (mostly for the Paycheck Protection Program), compared with $467 million during the same period last year. Outlays for unemployment compensation were $410 billion more than in the same five months in 2019. Payments of refundable tax credits—including recovery rebates that began in April under the CARES Act—totaled $274 billion more than in the same months in 2019. Outlays totaling $149 billion were made from the Coronavirus Relief Fund, which provides aid to state, local, tribal, and territorial governments. Outlays for the Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund (included in the “Other” category below) were $105 billion, compared with $1 billion during the same five month period last year. Medicare outlays were $95 billion more than in the same five months last year (after removing the effect of a timing shift in 2019 that increased outlays in that year), largely because of the expansion of two programs. Outlays for the Department of Education (included in “Other”) from April through August this year were $50 billion higher than in the same period last year.  Spending for Medicaid was $34 billion higher than in the same period last year.

Some of these outlays are one time events (SBA).  Some of them will continue next year but at a lower rate (unemployment compensation).  But some of these will continue ratcheting up (Medicare, Medicaid) and are the real problems.  The government loves to spend money, and it will be very hard for them to stop doing it after developing the taste for blood, err spending other people's money.

I believe the monthly deficit will average $200 billion, even after recovery from the current crisis.  The CBO projects that deficits will be much lower than that ($1,810 bn in 2021, $1,336 bn in 2022, $1,1234 bn in 2023) but of course they have to be optimistic.  I seriously doubt that the 2021 deficit will be under $2.4 trillion.

==============================

The Treasury Department's Monthly Treasury Statement for August 2020 show slightly different numbers.  They say the deficit in August was $200 billion, and the fiscal year to date deficit was $3,007 billion. 

There was a surplus in September 2019 of $82 billion ($374 bn revenue less $291 bn outlays), so it is possible, although unlikely, that September 2020 could have a surplus as well.  

M5

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed.  Here is the current measure:

As of 8/31/2020:
M2 (as of 8/24/20) = 18,386.1
Pub Debt (as of 8/31/20) = 20,822
Fed held (as of 9/2/20) = -4,386.6
-----------------------
Total: 34,821.5

The last time I calculated this, on 12/1/13, it showed 21,018.7.

On the St Louis Fed site, it is calculated as FYGFDPUN/1000 + M2 - (TREAST/1000).

What does this mean?  It could be used to calculate inflation more accurately than CPI, which is heavily manipulated.

This could include some double-counting, for example Customer 1 has $1000 in a savings account in XYZ bank, which invests that money in short-term Treasury bills, but overall it is a pretty good measure.

Giant 14 of Stocks

 This is an update of my previous article, The Big 8 of Stocks.  The Giant 14 are all big stocks, mostly tech stocks, that have all risen greatly this year (and then dropped sharply).   This is the same as my previous Big 8 list, with Berkshire Hathaway removed, and a few smaller stocks included.  Here it is:

1. Apple (AAPL)
2. Microsoft (MSFT)
3. Amazon (AMZN)
4. Alphabet (GOOG)
5. Facebook (FB)
6. Alibaba (BABA)
7. Tencent (TCEHY)
8. Tesla (TSLA)
9. Walmart (WMT)
10. NVIDIA (NVDA)
11. Adobe (ADBE)
12. Verizon (VZ)
13. Salesforce (CRM)
14. Netflix (NFLZ)

See also The Wild Ride of the Giant 5 Stocks

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (current market cap $374B) could also possibly be a part of this list, but I am not that familiar with it.  

=====================

Here is another list of the FANGMANTIS stocks:

These stocks have dropped between 5.8% (Intel) and 25.1% (Tesla) from their respective highs (date in parentheses):

• Alphabet [GOOG]: -12.2% (Sep 2)
• Amazon [AMZN]: -11.9% (Sep 2)
• Apple [AAPL]: -16.5% (Sep 1)
• Facebook [FB]: -11.9% (Sep 2)
• Microsoft [MSFT]: -12.0% (Sep 2)
• NVIDIA [NVDA]: -15.3% (Sep 2)
• Netflix [NFLX]: -13.7% (Sep 1)
• Tesla [TSLA]: -25.1% (Aug 31)
• Intel [INTC]: -5.8% (Sep 2)
• Salesforce [CRM]: -13.6% (Sep 1)

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/09/11/wild-ride-of-fangmantis-stocks-v-rest-of-market/

So these are the same list of stocks, minus Alibaba, Tencent, Walmart, Adobe and Verizon, plus Intel.  Intel has a market cap of $210 bn, making it the smallest company on the list.

Walmart had a high of 147.68 on Sept 2 and has since dropped 8.4%.

Adobe had a high of 533.80 on Sept 2 and has dropped 13.4% before recovering slightly.

Verizon had a high of 60.61 on Sept 3 and dropped 1.8% before recovering slightly.  So Verizon isn't acting like the other stocks.

So it looks like it is really the Giant 12 - the 14 from my original list, minus Alibaba, Tencent and Verizon, plus Intel.

Should Alibaba be in the list?  Maybe. It had a high of 298.00 on Sept 1 and then dropped 10.2%.  But here is the argument against Alibaba:  Alibaba [BABA] is not in the FANGMANTIS because it’s not a common stock; it’s an ADR, issued by a mailbox company in the Cayman Islands that has a contract with an entity of Alibaba in China. 

In other words, you can't trust that it actually owns shares in the company.

The benefits of a fast

 

When you fast for more than 24 hours, you can lose weight quickly and preserve muscle mass.  This video talks about how fasting affects IGF-1.  

However, this video doesn't talk about the biggest problem with fasting, which is "re-feeding syndrome", which is the tendency to quickly regain weight in an unhealthy manner.  If you fast, you should have a plan to break the fast properly and then be very careful about what you eat for several days afterward.

2MAD2 Military Diet

 2MAD2 is my latest diet theory.  2MAD stands for 2 meals a day, and I previously described it here: 2MAD.

2MAD2 is the second version of it.  The rules are simple:  1) skip breakfast; 2) have a strict keto lunch, preferably canned fish, like tuna or mackerel; 3) late night supper where carbs are allowed, but counted.  It is easy to limit carbs where they are only allowed one time a day.

The Military Diet is a popular 3-day fad diet that works.  Every time I try it, I lose weight.  I have written about it extensively before, for example:

Keto Military Diet, 

So here is the 2MAD2 version of the Military Diet:

Day 1 Breakfast: nothing
Day 1 Lunch: tuna  (5 oz), small salad
Day 1 Dinner: slice of toast with 2 tablespoons of peanut butter, grapefruit (one large), 4 oz meat, green beans, yogurt  (5 oz)

Day 2 Breakfast – nothing
Day 2 Lunch: tuna  (5 oz), cottage cheese (4 oz), boiled egg
Day 2 Dinner: boiled egg, broccoli and carrots, Vienna sausages (small can), banana, yogurt  (5 oz)

Day 3 Breakfast – nothing
Day 3 Lunch: tuna  (5 oz), cheese (1 oz), boiled egg
Day 3 Dinner: slice of toast or 5 saltine crackers, mackerel or other fish (8 oz), cabbage salad, apple, yogurt  (5 oz)

It may need some tweaking but that's the basic plan.

Living in the Limelight by Rush

 

I have this song stuck in my head.  This recording has a little bit of static so it isn't the clearest sound, but it is the most authentic.  It was recorded in 1981 live right after the song came out.

The S and P just hit a wall and bounced off

 

Source:  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-reaches-critical-resistance-valuation-record-high-liquidity-crashes

The all-time high in the SP500 was yesterday (Sept 2) at 3579.95.  Today (Sept 3) it is down 126 points (3.5%) so far.  Will it drop below 2500 repeating the February/March crash?

Crisis in 2052

 Here is my latest long-range forecast of the country's projected financial situation.  The primary source for this is the 2020 CBO forecast, available at https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-09/56517-Budget-Outlook.pdf.   This is a projection through 2030, and I just extended each of the lines.  Assuming a breaking point when the public debt exceeds 150% of GDP, I forecast that the system can muddle through until 2052.  This is actually an improvement over last year's forecast, which showed a breaking point in 2047.

However, I want to point out a "cheat" I did to make this appear perhaps better than it should be.  I am forecasting that GDP will increase by 5% every year after 2031 (without any recessions), but I am forecasting that revenues and most expenses will increase by only 4% per year.  Note that the Social Security Administration is actually forecasting much higher GDP growth than this.

					Other			Total			Public		Debt %
Year	Revenues		Soc Sec	Health	Mand	Discret	Interest	Outlays		Deficit	Debt	GDP	of GDP
2019	3,463		1,038	1,258	438	1,338	375	4,447		-984	16,801	21,220	79.2%
2020	3,296		1,091	1,399	2,127	1,651	338	6,606		-3,310	20,270	20,649	98.2%
2021	3,256		1,142	1,419	622	1,593	290	5,066		-1,810	21,931	20,997	104.4%
2022	3,739		1,201	1,559	514	1,528	273	5,075		-1,336	23,320	22,077	105.6%
2023	3,980		1,268	1,578	467	1,520	271	5,104		-1,124	24,520	22,975	106.7%
2024	4,146		1,341	1,625	444	1,542	274	5,226		-1,080	25,657	23,956	107.1%
2025	4,334		1,417	1,776	447	1,580	287	5,507		-1,173	26,818	25,010	107.2%
2026	4,656		1,496	1,890	457	1,613	316	5,772		-1,116	27,888	26,130	106.7%
2027	4,952		1,575	2,011	429	1,651	367	6,033		-1,081	28,993	27,287	106.3%
2028	5,123		1,660	2,209	446	1,693	448	6,456		-1,333	30,396	28,462	106.8%
2029	5,296		1,746	2,207	381	1,722	546	6,602		-1,306	31,773	29,591	107.4%
2030	5,457		1,835	2,411	406	1,768	664	7,084		-1,627	33,457	30,732	108.9%
2031	5,675		1,991	2,615	431	1,814	730	7,581		-1,906	35,363	32,300	109.5%
2032	5,902		2,147	2,819	456	1,860	803	8,085		-2,183	37,546	33,900	110.8%
2033	6,138		2,303	3,023	481	1,906	883	8,596		-2,458	40,004	35,600	112.4%
2034	6,384		2,459	3,227	506	1,952	971	9,115		-2,731	42,735	37,400	114.3%
2035	6,639		2,616	3,431	531	1,998	1,068	9,644		-3,005	45,740	39,300	116.4%
2036	6,905		2,748	3,635	556	2,044	1,144	10,127		-3,222	48,962	41,300	118.6%
2037	7,181		2,887	3,839	581	2,090	1,224	10,621		-3,440	52,402	43,000	121.9%
2038	7,468		3,031	4,043	606	2,136	1,310	11,126		-3,658	56,060	44,900	124.9%
2039	7,767		3,180	4,247	631	2,182	1,401	11,641		-3,874	59,934	46,800	128.1%
2040	8,078		3,335	4,451	656	2,228	1,498	12,168		-4,090	64,024	48,800	131.2%
2041	8,401		3,495	4,629	681	2,274	1,601	12,680		-4,279	68,303	50,900	134.2%
2042	8,737		3,662	4,814	706	2,320	1,708	13,210		-4,473	72,776	53,100	137.1%
2043	9,086		3,837	5,007	731	2,366	1,819	13,760		-4,674	77,450	55,800	138.8%
2044	9,449		4,020	5,207	756	2,412	1,936	14,331		-4,882	82,332	58,600	140.5%
2045	9,827		4,214	5,415	781	2,458	2,058	14,927		-5,100	87,432	61,500	142.2%
2046	10,220		4,419	5,632	806	2,504	2,186	15,547		-5,327	92,759	64,600	143.6%
2047	10,629		4,638	5,857	831	2,550	2,319	16,195		-5,566	98,325	67,800	145.0%
2048	11,054		4,872	6,092	856	2,596	2,458	16,874		-5,820	104,144	71,200	146.3%
2049	11,496		5,120	6,335	881	2,642	2,604	17,582		-6,086	110,230	74,800	147.4%
2050	11,956		5,384	6,589	906	2,688	2,756	18,322		-6,366	116,597	78,500	148.5%
2051	12,434		5,665	6,852	942	2,796	2,915	19,170		-6,736	123,332	82,400	149.7%
2052	12,931		5,965	7,126	980	2,907	3,083	20,062		-7,131	130,463	86,500	150.8%
2053	13,448		6,284	7,411	1,019	3,024	3,262	21,000		-7,552	138,015	90,800	152.0%
2054	13,986		6,622	7,708	1,060	3,145	3,450	21,985		-7,999	146,013	95,300	153.2%
2055	14,545		6,982	8,016	1,102	3,270	3,650	23,021		-8,476	154,489	100,100	154.3%
2056	15,127		7,364	8,337	1,146	3,401	3,862	24,110		-8,983	163,473	105,100	155.5%
2057	15,732		7,769	8,670	1,192	3,537	4,087	25,255		-9,523	172,996	110,400	156.7%
2058	16,361		8,200	9,017	1,240	3,679	4,325	26,460		-10,099	183,095	115,900	158.0%
2059	17,015		8,654	9,378	1,290	3,826	4,577	27,724		-10,709	193,805	121,700	159.2%
2060	17,696		9,135	9,753	1,341	3,979	4,845	29,053		-11,357	205,162	127,800	160.5%

This shows that Debt Held by the Public will first exceed $50 trillion in 2037.  This is the same exact year that I predicted last year.  And then it will hit $100 trillion in 2048.

So even though we have had a horrible recession, the long-range forecast isn't that different.  Which makes sense, because a minor short-term change won't really effect the long run.