Gen. Flynn thinks Trump is still going to win

 This is from an interview with General Michael Flynn on Nov. 28:

I say all that and on one hand and the other hand as I just described, we have clear paths to victory for this President. Frankly, he’s going win Pennsylvania. He’s going to win Arizona. He’s going to win Georgia. He’s going to win Nevada. He’s going to win Michigan. The other one that he’s probably going to pull in is Wisconsin too, because there’s a discrepancy in Wisconsin of 130,000 vigilant ballots that they just found, they just discovered. There’s a lot of things happening and it’s all, to me, it’s all positive. I was asked today on a scale of 1 to 10, who will be the next President, and I said, 10 it’ll be Donald Trump. It’ll be president Trump. There’s no doubt in my mind that he won this election hands down in a landslide, probably somewhere between 350 and 400 electoral college votes.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-11-29-full-transcript-interview-gen-michael-flynn-gen-thomas-mcinerney.html

The source is NaturalNews.com so I don't know if it is reliable or not.

Civil War between Army Special Forces and CIA in Germany

 I heard this on the radio this morning and it sounds totally bizarre.  I didn't hear the full story, but it sounds like the Special Forces raided a CIA base in Frankfurt that was involved in hacking the election computers, and there were some casualties (deaths). 

Here is another report on it:

As you know by now, the DoD launched a raid on a CIA-run server farm in Frankfurt, Germany, to secure servers that contain proof of CIA interference with the 2020 election (i.e. backdoor manipulations of election results via Dominion voting machines). But new information is now surfacing that indicates there was a firefight at the server farm facility, involving US Army Special Forces units, engaging with CIA-trained paramilitary units that were flown in from Afghanistan in an emergency effort to defend the facility.

One CIA officer was killed during the firefight, and he is now being reported across the mainstream media as being “killed in Somalia.” Five US Army soldiers were also killed, and they are being explained away as dying in a “helicopter crash” in Egypt.

Despite the deaths, the servers were successfully acquired by the DoD, and those servers were turned over to President Trump’s private intelligence group, which is now once again led by Gen. Michael Flynn, recently pardoned and now allowed to process top secret information, since his security clearance has been restored. https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-11-27-situation-update-nov-27th-dod-vs-cia-covert-war.html

I don't consider NaturalNews to be a reliable source, so I am looking for other confirmation.

==================================

Here is another source: https://gellerreport.com/2020/11/lt-gen-mcinerney-us-special-forces-attacked-cia-server-farm-in-germany-in-server-seizure-operation-5-soldiers-killed-servers-secured.html/

This links to: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/new_reports_about_election_manipulation_read_like_a_tom_clancy_novel.html

In this post, I’ll sum up the most recent reports about events in Germany, although without taking any stand as to their veracity because I can’t take a stand. I don’t know enough.

For several days, rumors have swirled that there was a “military” raid in Germany, either against Scytl (the Spanish company that processes American voting data in a facility in Frankfurt, Germany) or against a CIA station that is also located in Germany. On Friday, those rumors coalesced into an affirmative report about the CIA station in Germany.

Mike Adams, who writes at Natural News (which I once thought was a health food newsletter, not a conservative internet news outlet), dropped a bombshell, claiming there was a deadly firefight in Frankfurt between special forces and CIA operatives:

So that links back to Natural News.

============================

But here is something else that is interesting, even if Mike Adams made up the story about the raid:

A top secret CIA unit used the German city of Frankfurt am Main as the starting point for numerous hacking attacks on Europe, China and the Middle East.“ A German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, reported “the building was known to be home to a vast network of intelligence personnel including CIA agents, NSA spies, military secret service personnel, Department of Homeland Security employees and Secret Service employees.” It reported “the Americans had also established a dense network of outposts and shell companies in Frankfurt.“  https://cleverjourneys.com/2020/11/14/secret-germany-raid-reveals-cia-ties-to-us-election-fraud/

Interesting. The CIA runs a cyberwarfare unit out of Frankfurt.  I wonder how the Germans feel about that.

Trump effectively concedes, and the party is over

In what is the closest words yet to a concession, President Trump agreed to let GSA proceed with the Biden administration transition. In a pair of tweets, Trump noted: "I want to thank Emily Murphy at GSA for her steadfast dedication and loyalty to our Country. She has been harassed, threatened, and abused – and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA." Trump added that while the election litigation battle continues... "Our case STRONGLY continues, we will keep up the good fight, and I believe we will prevail!" ... He will allow the transition to proceed: "Nevertheless, in the best interest of our Country, I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols, and have told my team to do the same."

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-tells-gsa-allow-biden-transition-proceed-best-interest-our-country

So the wild dance party is over, but the cleanup remains.  And I am not interested in covering the details of putting the chairs away and taking out the trash.

What a horrible election.  Everybody involved should be totally embarrassed.  Congress needs to make a special committee to analyze what happened and to make recommendations.  They need to have a forum for Sidney Powell and the evidence she has about Dominion.  And to pass a uniform law about absentee ballots, mailing them, gathering them, matching signatures, the dates they need to be received.  And a uniform law about registration - same-day voter registration should not be allowed, and removing old registration, so ballots don't get forwarded out of state.  And open up the electronic voting systems to bid, and have requirements about backdoors and security, and internet access.  And have a paper trail.  And have rules about auditing elections.  And have a way for people to verify their vote while remaining anonymous - maybe give them a 128-bit number after they vote that they can enter on to a website later to verify their vote.

Our current system allows for cheating, and so you can't blame the winner for being good at cheating.  Donald Trump didn't realize that.

Joe Biden will be the next president, but he has no reason to celebrate.  There should be some way he can "purge" himself, by admitting the election fraud, without admitting any criminal behavior.  He has no mandate, and he should be very gracious to the losers, which he has been so far.   Biden is only a figurehead, a hologram, a mascot, he is compromised and a reliable tool of the deep state.

Donald Trump was the moral winner here.  He had a very successful presidency until the coronavirus pandemic.  Unfortunately, he was tainted by the actions of Rudy Giuliani.  But he can ride off into the sunset as a legend.

The mainstream media (CNN,CBS etc) and the social media giants (Facebook and Twitter) are despicable.  It is outrageous the way they censor information they don't like.

This was the last election.  Voting doesn't matter, what matters is who counts the vote.  America is over.  The Deep State is in control.  I love Big Brother.  I'm not bitter, just realistic. 

Here Is The Evidence Dot Com

 https://hereistheevidence.com/  

This is a list of approximately 600 items of voting irregularities.

The problem with a list like this is that no one wants to wade through the list.  What is the strongest argument?  I don't have time to look through the list right now and evaluate the claims, maybe later.  Even if some of these items are credible, will they change the results of the election in a single state?

Anyways, this is worth looking at.

Giuliani embarasses himself in Pennsylvania

 See: https://www.vox.com/2020/11/22/21589195/trump-rudy-giuliani-judge-matthew-brann-incompetence-boockvar-pennsylvania

Judicial opinions are typically staid documents that avoid direct criticism of legal advocates — both as a professional courtesy and because judges typically want to avoid giving the impression that their disregard for a particular lawyer may have influenced their decision. But Judge Brann clearly believes that Trump’s lawyers behaved egregiously in his courtroom, and that this conduct is worth noting repeatedly in his opinion.

Early in his opinion, Brann summarizes the lawsuit in ten damning words: “Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters.” The mere fact that Trump’s lawyers would even request such a thing is audacious. As Brann notes, “this Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated.”

And yet, Trump’s lawyers did not come to court with any evidence or legal authorities that could justify such a result. “One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption,” Brann writes. But “that has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence.”

The case is: Donald J. Trump for President v. Boockvar.

I like Rudy Giulianai and I wish him well.  He was a national hero on 9/11.  But he basically pooped his pants in the courtroom and had the judge comment on the smell.  That is how bad it was.  Giuiliani, unfortunately, has disgraced himself.  He needs to resign from the legal team and stop giving press conferences.

Tucker calls out Sidney Powell's lack of evidence

 

Watch it.

This is huge.  Tucker Carlson says that Sidney Powell made some huge claims that she has provided no evidence for.  If what she says is true, then this is the biggest crime of all time - some 8 million votes were flipped from Trump to Biden.  Has she gone completely insane and lost all credibility?

This is a huge turning point.  Either Sidney provides evidence to back up her claims - let's give her a week to file something in court - or she is a blathering idiot.  No forget that, she has until the end of the day on Wednesday November 25, to make her case.

It seems likely that the entire Trump legal team has gone insane - Giuliani, Powell, Alan Dershowitz.  The Republican party is splitting in two between the Tucker Carlson wing and the Sidney Powell / Trump /  MAGA crowd.

======================

Update: 11/23/20

The Trump campaign has cut ties with Sidney Powell because of her unsupported claims of voter fraud.

What is Sidney Powell's opinion?

Attorney Sidney Powell

In this post, I want to know what Sidney is alleging, but I won't critique it at this time.  What is she saying about the election?

This is actually a difficult question to answer because I don't want to spend time watching a video of her press conferences, and the media isn't accurately reporting her.  And I don't have a lot of time right now to research this.

It seems like her main claim is that the Dominion voting system is designed to enable election results to be manipulated:

"The math just doesn't add up for anything and we know Dominion has a long history of rigging elections, because that's what it was created to do to begin with," Powell told Tuesday's "Greg Kelly Reports," noting even the "founder of the company admits he can change a million votes, no problem at all." "So don't tell me there's no evidence of fraud," she continued. "We've got increasingly mounting evidence of significant fraud across multiple states that casts into question the validity of elections in every swing state."  It is not just limited to Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia either, she said. adding "it went beyond that, too."  https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/sidney-powell-dominion-voting-systems/2020/11/17/id/997526/

Quick question:  Which states use the Dominion voting system?  According to their website, 28 states use the Dominion system including: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Viginia, Pennsylvania and Texas.  North Carolina does not.

So if what she is saying is true, then the elections in all 28 states must be thrown out.  Is that a fair implication of what she is saying?

Before dismissing her opinion because of this, let's look at the actual claims about the Dominion machines and Dominion's response.

Are we there yet?

Is the first phase of the election (the vote counting) over?  This usually occurs within a day of the election, so this is an unusual question.  And unfortunately we can't trust the media to give us the results instead of their projections as to what the results will be.  The AP has zero credibility.  

The last time I checked, these states still had not finished: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.  Here are the results from the state secretary of state pages.

• Michigan: Biden 2,804,039 to Trump 2,649,852. I don't know if it is certified, but they are done counting.  
• Nevada: Biden 703,486 to Trump 669,890 
• Pennsylvania: Biden 3,454,093 to Trump 3,372,952 
• Wisconsin:  I can not find any official election results from the state.  There are plenty of news sources that have opinions on this but I don't know what their sources are.
• Georgia:  I saved this for last.  Biden 2,474,420 to Trump 2,461,833

So we are complete except for Wisconsin.  I will try to look a little harder for the results there.  So first go to their election results page: https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results .  The results are not listed, and apparently won't be until the next meeting of the Wisconsin Elections Commission on December 1.

What's the deal with Wisconsin? Has anyone else noticed the problem?

RealClearPolitics.com says the vote in Wisconsin is 100% done and these are the totals:  Biden 1,630,673 to Trump 1,610,065.  I don't know where they are getting their numbers from but they seem credible.

So yes, the first phase of the election nightmare is over.  To no one's surprise, Biden is the tentative winner.

Next up, I will look at the recounts and lawsuits challenging the election.

Drop and Roll

 

Source: https://rumble.com/vb8ksn-drop-and-roll-how-the-2020-election-was-stolen-from-donald-trump.html

Click on the link to watch the video.

Note: I am not necessarily advocating for this video; instead I am just putting it out there as something to watch.  You won't be able to see this on Facebook or YouTube and I don't believe in censorship.

It presents pretty definitive proof (assuming the numbers they present are accurate) that the election was stolen in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia.  

Is there a response to this?  If so, I will post it.

Election Audits

Source: https://coloradosun.com/2020/11/16/2020-election-risk-limiting-audit-colorado/

Colorado does a risk-limiting audit after each election and the results are due this year by Nov. 24.  A risk-limiting audit is " a procedure that compares votes on paper ballots with results collected by vote-counting machines to scan for discrepancies and correct erroneous tabulations." 

The only other states that have similar procedures are Virginia and Rhode Island.  

There are other types of post-election audits as well.  34 states do some kind of post-election audit.

Which states don't and are very vulnerable to election fraud?  Let's name them.  (I am not implying that any election fraud occurred in these states.)  

Here is the list of states that don't do any kind of post-election audit:

Alabama

Louisiana

Maine

Mississippi

New Hampshire

South Dakota

Here is the list that do an "other" type, implying that it is deficient in some way, or it may be discretionary or only done in limited circumstances:

Idaho

Indiana

Nebraska

North Dakota

South Carolina

Wyoming

Note that none of the swing states this year are on the list, meaning that they all will do some kind of post-election audit.  I sure would like to read the audit reports when they are available.  I will update this if I find out more information.

Is the election over?

Over in the sense that 100% of the votes have been counted.  I am ignoring recounts and challenges.  Let's see:

First, let's look at North Carolina, which had to wait another 12 days after election day.  Yes, they say 100% of the vote is in and Trump won by about 75,000 votes.

Arizona.  RealClearPolitics says that Arizona is 98% done, but I think they gave up.   The AP says it is 99% counted.  The AZ SOS says that 100% of the vote is in, and Biden won by about 10,500.

Georgia. We already know they were going to do a recount, but now they discovered another 2,600 votes in Floyd County (about 2/3 of which were for Trump) which had not been counted.  So Georgia is not done.

Michigan. They are still at 99%, which is really weird. No Michigan is not done.

Nevada.  This is only at 99%, so no, Nevada is not done. 

Pennsylvania.  Also only at 99%.

Wisconsin.  According to the AP, this is also at 99%.

So no, the election is not over.  What a disgrace.  Each of these states should conduct a post-election audit and make huge reforms, no matter who wins.

And I'm not even talking about round two - the playoffs (in court).  Come on guys, hurry up.  It's now 13 days since the election and you still haven't finished counting.

The media has already proclaimed the winner, and they are probably correct, but let's wait until all the votes are counted, ok?

=================

Update: Sidney Powell claims she has evidence that the voting machines could be used to manipulate the election results.

I don't want to go there yet.  Let's count the votes first. I will check back tomorrow night and see if they are done.

Maximizing Autophagy

 

So Dr Jason Fung was asked the question:  Is there a time over which you should fast to maximize authophagy?  (In this video jump to 9:36).

He answered, and I paraphrase, we don't really know, but I would guess 24 to 36 hours.  He also recommends occasional longer fasts.

I started to transcribe his answer and he went on and on and on, so you can watch the video, but this is his full answer, which I am posting because I spent the time to transcribe it.

Again, we don't know but I can guess, but we don't know. So if you look at what happens during fasting we know that you mostly use glycogen during the initial sort of 24 hours - it lasts roughly 24 hours. And then there's that period of gluconeogenesis from 24 to 36 hours.  So that's the period of time that my guess is that there's going to be the most sort of autophagy and so on because you're breaking down the proteins at that point for gluconeogenesis.  And again that's the whole sort of sticking point with a lot of people in fasting is that oh hey you're breaking down protein, you're going to burn your muscle at 24 to 36 hours sort of thing.  It's possible but I don't think the research on alternate daily fasting really bears that out.  However, I think that's actually a good thing because one you're taking down old protein and then because of growth hormone increases you're going to rebuild new proteins so I think it's actually not a breaking down process, I think it's actually a renewal process.  If you look only at the breakdown from 24 to 36 hours and you miss that sort of refeeding sort of burst activity then you're going to miss the whole picture, you're going to say, oh well you know you're just breaking it down, but you don't see the fact that it's actually balanced now. 

Keeping in mind that the body always works this way so if you look at bones for example, your bones are not static, there are osteoclasts and osteoblasts, so when you go through life, you actually have cells called osteoclasts which eat away at your bone and you might say oh wow that's terrible.  No, because when you eat away the bone it actually stimulates the osteoblasts to produce new bone.  But if you only look at one side of it you'd say whoa these cells are terrible, let's just murder all these normal osteoclasts.  It's like yeah you're going to have terrible brittle bones that's in fact what happened with some of the drugs that we use bisphosphonates we starting seeing really really brittle bones after like 10 years. It was because the bones might have more calcium but they're old and were not renewed. 

So the same thing happens - you get this 24 to 36 hour period of time where you are breaking down protein and it's not necessarily protein it's also connective tissue and all that and I think you know to me that makes the most sense.  And this is a pure guess so keep that in mind nobody actually knows.  That is my guess as the best place for this sort of autophagy to maximize itself.  So I would guess that if you are trying to maximize this sort of thing for whether you're trying to break down skin or connective tissue or alzheimer's disease where you have sort of excessive protein in the brain my guess is that it would be most beneficial to do these sort of 24 to 36 hour fasts and then once in a while like once every month once every couple of months do an extended fast.  And that the reason we do this so maybe I have done this for a few patients is that I don't know where the best sort of benefits lie so therefore I'm going to cover all my bases.  Do an occasional long fast with some of these alternate daily fasts 24 to 36 hour fasts to try to focus in on this sort of protein breaking down period of time.  And when you do these 24 to 36 hour fasts, there's no coffee there's no anything but water and salt, right.  That's for the autophagy people.  I means there's a few specific people who come to us and they say and we're like ok you know to our knowledge this is going to be the best protocol for you but no you know somebody always goes oh have you proven this - like no, nobody's proven any of this but you can do it or you cannot do it it's up to you.  

How to do a 36-hour fast

 

The most important thing is to break the fast with bone broth.  He recommends a brand called Kettle & Fire (paid promotion), but there are other good brands too. He says that the 16-28 hour timeframe is the sweet spot where your body burns both glucose and ketones.

From personal experience, doing a 36-hour fast once a week is very easy to do, and I see dramatic weight loss (with of course some weight regain when I eat again).  I don't see the benefits of going longer than 36 hours, since the weight loss slows down on the second day of fasting.  Also, with just a 36-hour fast, your metabolism remains high, whereas with a longer fast it will slow down. 

Updated Electoral Map

 

Source: https://www.theepochtimes.com/

The gray states have unofficially been called for Biden, but they are really up in the air at this point.  What is the difference in official vote counts at this point, per the states electoral boards?

Arizona: Biden’s lead dwindled to 11,635 with 99% of votes counted.  But they are still counting, and may do a recount.

Georgia: Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden’s lead in Georgia has grown to 14,148 votes, with over 99 percent of votes counted, according to Decision Desk HQ.  They are going to do a full recount.

Michigan:  Biden is leading by about 146,000 votes, with 99% reporting.

Nevada: Biden is leading by about 47,000 votes, with 97% reporting.

Pennsylvania:  Biden is leading by about 55,000 votes with 99% reporting.  Rudy Giuliana claims that 650,000 votes were done illegally and should be removed.

Wisconsin: Biden won by 20,000 votes with 100% reporting.

North Carolina: Trump is ahead by 73,000 votes with 97% reporting.  

So lets speculate - if Trump ends up winning Georgia (because the recount changes things), Arizona, and Pennsylvania (through court challenges), will that be enough for him to win? Yes, it sure will.  But he would need all 3 states to win.

It still is possible, but extremely unlikely, that Trump will win.  We won't know for sure until each states certifies their results on December 8.  

The mainstream news has zero credibility.  I do think that Biden has about a 95% chance of being successful at this point, but he can't claim to be president-elect yet.

The October 2020 deficit was $284 billion

 The government recorded a deficit of $284 billion in October, CBO estimates, $149 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same month last year. Revenues fell by $8 billion (or 3 percent), largely because of a decline in collections of individual income taxes. Outlays this October were $141 billion (or 37 percent) higher than in the same month last year because of greater spending for many government programs, in part driven by the government’s response to the pandemic.  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-11/56746-MBR.pdf

This doesn't seem like a shocking number, but if every month had a $284 billion deficit, that is $3.4 trillion.  This is more than the $3.1 trillion deficit for FY 2020. 

=======================

Update:  If the government had a deficit of $284 billion, but M5 only increased by $88 billion, then where did the extra cash come from?  From its savings account at the Fed.

On 9/30/20, Treasury had $1,782 billion in its account.

On 10/30/20, Treasury had $1,599 billion in its account.

So its cash decreased by $183 billion during October.

Question: Is cash that the Treasury has in its Fed account inflationary?  Obviously not.  So maybe I should have a new measure, call it M6, which is M5 less the Treasury cash.  This would give you the total of cash that is "in the wild", excluding both Fed holdings of Treasury bonds and Treasury cash stored at the Fed.  And if this number increases while GDP decreases, this would obviously be inflationary because you have more cash chasing fewer goods.

M5 for October 31

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 10/31/2020:
M2 (as of 10/19/20) = 18,815.20
Pub Debt (as of 10/30/20) = 21,097.0
Fed held (as of 10/28/20) = -4,527.2
-----------------------
Total: 35,385.0

On 9/30/20, this was at 35,296.8, so it is up 88.2 or 0.25%.

For once, we have some good news. This is below the limit of 0.58%, so it is SUSTAINABLE. If every month were like October, there would be nothing to worry about.

Projection: Biden Wins

 

Time Nov 4, 2020 at 8:00 AM.

Here is the most likely scenario at this point.  Details:

Nevada (6) - Biden 49.2%, Trump 48.6% (75%)

Arizona (11) - Biden 51.0%, Trump 47.6% (84%)

Wisconsin (10) - Biden 49.6%, Trump 48.9%, (100%)

Michigan (16) - Biden 49.4%, Trump 49.1% (91%)

Pennsylvania (20) - Biden 44.8%, Trump 54.1% (80%)

North Carolina (15) - Biden 48.7%, Trump 50.1% (100%)

Georgia (16) -  Biden 48.3%, Trump 50.5% (100%)

It looks like it will all depend on the final count (and recount) in Michigan.  When is Michigan supposed to finish counting?   By later tonight, say 7pm EST.  So we will have a tentative winner by tonight.

When will we have an official winner?  North Carolina has to count absentee ballots until Nov. 12, so it won't declare a winner until then.  Pennsylvania won't declare a winner until "later this week", so it should be by Friday night.  But Biden doesn't need those states to win..

Will this be challenged?  Absolutely, since there are allegations of voter fraud, and it will go up to the Supreme Court.  So we won't know the actual winner until that case is decided, probably in early December.

===================

How does this compare to my previous predictions?  

1. My initial prediction on June 18, called "Sleepy Joe is going to win", predicted that Biden would win 318-220 overall and winning Florida and Pennsylvania.  So I was way off.

2. My second prediction on Oct. 9, called "Trump could still win", predicted a Trump win 274-264 with Trump winning Arizona and Michigan and Biden winning Pennsylvania.  I said that Trump had to win both Arizona and Michigan and I gave him 30% odds of winning.  So this was still projecting a Biden win.  I said "It could come down to a few thousand people in Michigan."

3. My third prediction on Oct 16, called "Revised election odds" presented the same scenario (of Trump winning Arizona and Michigan and Biden winning Pennsylvania) and gave it a 35% change.  So this was also projecting a Biden win.

4. On Oct 21, I wrote a post called "Florida is the key state", and said that Trump had a 30% chance of winning Florida, but a 77% chance of winning the election if he did win Florida.  The 77% chance included Trump winning Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada.  I said there was a 23% overall chance of Trump doing so, so this was projecting a Biden win.

5. On Oct 30, I wrote a post called "Arizona will decide the election".  This saw Biden winning Pennsylvania and Trump winning Michigan, in which case Arizona was need to break the tie.  I said Trump had a 12.5% overall of winning, so this was projecting a Biden win.

6. On Oct 31, I wrote a post called "Contested Election Very Likely".  I said that if Biden didn't sweep on election night then Trump had a 60% chance of winning. 

So at this point I have to say that I was wrong on every single prediction, because I never seriously thought Trump would win Pennsylvania or that Biden would win Arizona.

But I was much better than the delusional pollsters at FiveThirtyEight.com.

It's crazy that I would have to give odds of winning, the day after the election, but my confidence level is only 51% that Biden will win Michigan, and thus the election.  This is turning into a repeat of 2000, however, Michigan is the state where you have to count and recount every vote instead of Florida.

========================

Update:  Trump's campaign manager believes that Trump could still win Nevada and Arizona, because not all the votes have been counted.  And Trump will ask for a recount in Wisconsin and Michigan.  So it's not over yet.  So it's too early to declare a tentative winner until we get a final count of Nevada and Arizona.

Love Bites by Def Leppard

 

When you make love, do you look in your mirror?
Who do you think of? Does he look like me?
Do you tell lies? And say that it's forever?
Do you think twice, or just touch and see?

When you're alone, do you let go?
Are you wild and willing, or is it just for show?

I don't want to touch you too much baby
making love to you might drive me crazy
I know you think that love is the way you make it
I don't want to be there when you decide to break it, 
no, Love bites, love bleeds, It's bringing me to my knees, 
love lives, love dies, It's no surprise, 
Love begs, love pleads, It's what I need

When I'm with you are you somewhere else?
Am I getting through or do you please yourself?
When you wake up will you walk out?
It can't be love if you throw it about

Ooh babe, I don't want to touch you too much baby
making love to you might drive me crazy, oh
love bites,love bleeds,It's bringing me to my knees 
love lives, love dies, It's no surprise 
Love begs, love pleads,It's what I need

Oh yeah, I don't want to touch you too much baby
making love to you might drive me crazy
I know you think that love is the way you make it
I don't want to be there when you decide to break it, 
no, love bites, love bleeds, It's bringing me to my knees
love lives, love dies
Love bites, love bleeds, It's bringing me to my knees 
love lives, love dies, It's no surprise 
love begs, love pleads,It's what I need

If you've got love in your sights
Watch out, love bites
Yes it does, (it will be hell)

Nate Silver is delusional

 Nate Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight.com, thinks that this is the most likely outcome on November 3:

He thinks that the electoral map will look like this:

I think he is completely delusional.  I am screenshotting this so I can laugh about how wrong he is on November 4.  I think most of the light blue states on that map will be red.

If Biden's map looks anywhere near this, then we will know by midnight on election day tomorrow and certainly by Wednesday morning at 8 AM, and I will eat crow.  I think there is a 20% chance of Biden having a clear victory on election day.

As I said, the most likely result is complete confusion and chaos with no clear winner, and warnings to wait until EVERY SINGLE VOTE HAS COUNTED, which will take at least another week, and then the riots and the court challenges will begin.  In this scenario, Trump has a 60% chance of winning.