Saturday, December 21, 2024
Is a Honda Prologue the same as a Chevy Blazer EV?
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Why Saudi Arabia is Building a $1 Trillion City in the Desert
Today on the Mayan Calendar
I have written about this before I think, but I don't have time to look it up right now. The Mayans used a calendar which had a 52-year cycle. This isn't exactly 52 years because they didn't use leap days, so the cycle is 18,980 days (365 * 52) long.
So what happened 18,980 days ago? It was January 1, 1973. I don't think anything of note happened on that day other than it being the new year. It was just before Nixon's second inauguration, just like now is just before Trump's second inauguration. (I think I have compared Trump to Nixon before).
I have been more focused on the 17-year cycle, which is 1/3 of Mayan cycle. Also, the Mayan cycle is about 6 pi cycles of 3,142 days each. You could also compare the Mayan cycles to the Kondratiev (or Kondratieff) waves.
What happens when the stock market drops 11 days in a row?
Will there be a government shutdown?
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025
And read this:
In his call Wednesday for Republicans to ditch the negotiated bipartisan short-term spending bill, Trump also demanded that lawmakers increase the debt ceiling — something that hadn't been on the table at all. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-abolishing-debt-ceiling-rcna184820
So yes, the government will shutdown and it probably won't reopen until Trump is inaugurated.
What effect will this have on spending and the debt? None, it will probably make things worse because shutting things down and reopening them has a cost. Also, most government spending is on autopilot (Social Security etc). Government employees will get a paid vacation of a month or more. It will however highlight how useless much of government is.
So I say shutdown it down. Starting a 12:01am on Saturday, December 21.
Could this be the event that starts the recession and causes the Fed to cut rates in an emergency meeting?
Update: There won't be a shutdown. Biden signed the bill which will keep the government funded until March 14, 2025. The bill did not include an increase to the debt ceiling which will come back on Jan 1, 2025. However, the Treasury has enough cash on hand to last probably until June, so this isn't a hard deadline.
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Fed to cut rates following 17 year pattern in preparation for a financial disaster
Later today, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25% so they are in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Nobody else is commenting on how they are following a pattern from almost exactly 17 years ago.
I'm no Nostradamus but I saw the 17 year cycle coming. In a post I wrote on Feb 26, 2024, I wrote about the 17 year cycle, predicting the rate cut on Sept 18, 2024. The Fed has been following a script since September 2022 to present.
This can not be a coincidence. Even the length of the plateau is almost exactly the same (447 days in 2006-2007 and 452 days in 2023-2024).
Just don't ask what happens next, it is scary. In case you are too young, or forgot, look up the Great Recession. (A recession officially, in retrospect, began on December 1, 2007). I don't think we are in a recession now, but I think one will start right about the time that Trump takes office. I think the Federal Reserve is playing with some black magic, and they are aligning the stars and comets to insure that Trump will face the mother of all financial crises as soon as he is inaugurated.
What do I think will happen next? Well, if you read your history, the Fed did an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 22, 2008. I think history will repeat almost exactly, so look for an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025. I hope nothing happens but I fear that something really bad is about to happen in the next month. I don't know what would make the Fed unexpectedly cut rates, but whatever would make them do that is coming. I don't want to speculate what that would be here, maybe in a later post.
Also look for the Bank of England to cut rates in an identical amount (0.25%) tomorrow, Dec 19. The ECB already cut the rates by 0.25% on Dec 12. Of course it's all coordinated.
==========
Update: The Bank of England did not cut rates on Dec 19, so I was wrong here.
Monday, December 16, 2024
Tell me about Jonathan Turley
Source: https://chatgpt.com/
I don't even know who Jonathan Turley is. ChatGPT could easily come up with a bland response with the first sentence from his Wikipedia page. Why is he so dangerous? ChatGPT previously defamed him by saying that he was accused of sexual harassment (which he wasn't), and instead of apologizing to him, he was deleted from ChatGPT's brain. ChatGPT is dangerous.
Scott Adams has a theory about drones
https://x.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1868339762563842156
He believes that the UFO sightings over New Jersey are actually drones being trained in preparation for the Drone Wars (like the Clone Wars from Star Wars).
My current drone theory: Drones are the future of warfare. We expect a drone war soon, in Iran or elsewhere. Our supply of drones far exceeds our supply of drone pilots. We need massive training, and fast. ... No other theory explains the need to fly every night and in multiple locations for weeks on end. . . Yet quit at 11 PM every night. My pattern recognition says we’re planning for war, and soon.
Read also: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/invasion-drones-breaking-truth-behind-mystery-drones-new/
Friday, December 13, 2024
More Magical Money Tree Propaganda
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
The November 2024 deficit was $365 billion
The federal government incurred a deficit of $365 billion in November 2024, CBO estimates—$51 billion more than the deficit recorded last November. The federal budget deficit totaled $622 billion in October and November 2024, the first two months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $242 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Outlays were $191 billion (or 18 percent) higher, and revenues were $50 billion (or 7 percent) lower. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60844/html
Net interest YTD was $163 billion, and since October interest was $80 billion, November interest was $83 billion. Compare this to November 2023 when interest was $77 billion. This is an increase of 8%.
The national debt as of 11/30/24 was $36.1 trillion compared to $33.9 trillion as of 11/30/23, so this is 6.5% higher.
The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $210.97 billion as of 11/27/24. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW . This is up from $207 billion as of 10/30/24, so it increased $3.97 billion for the month. This is a slower rate of increase than the past, when this averaged about $7 billion per month.
===================
Medicare spending is way up. YTD Medicare is $205 billion, up from $102 billion in the same period in fiscal year 2024. The government now spend more on Medicare than defense or on net interest on the debt. There is no explanation of why this has increased 100% from last year.
==================
The $622 billion YTD deficit is the worst it has ever been including the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. See https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/government-spending-shock-us-budget-deficit-worst-start-year-record
I think the Biden administration is trying to go out with a bang and spend as much money as possible before the cops (Trump and Musk) show up and end the party.
This has a couple of cool charts showing that FY 2025 is starting off much worse than even 2020 and 2021. Just to compare, the FY 2020 deficit was $3.132 trillion, and the FY 2021 deficit was $2.770 trillion.
Will FY 2025 be higher than both of those? Probably not, this is just the revenge of the bitter a-hole bureaucrats who hate America on their way out the door. But if there is a recession and tax revenue slows down, then this could be the worst year, fiscally speaking, in US history.
Saturday, December 7, 2024
Joni Ernst's 22 ways to save $2 Trillion
Joni Ernst, of course, is a Senator from Iowa, and she is working with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy of DOGE to make government more efficient.
Her 22 steps are here: https://x.com/SenJoniErnst/status/1861173088374718885
The first 5 are:
1. Ghost Workers. The government can save $15.7 billion per year by not leasing office space where nobody works.
2. Audit the IRS. Hundreds of IRS agents are delinquent on their tax, and over 150,000 government workers owe back taxes totalling over $1.5 billion. (Can't they just take the taxes from their paychecks?)
3. Undo Boondoggles. Including $7.5 billion to build EV charging stations (which built 17) and $42 billion to expand rural broadband (which connected nobody).
4. Cancel the California trains. This will save $144 billion.
5. Stop Christmas in September. Government agencies rush to spend money on anything in September to justify their budgets. This will save $53 billion.
And the most interesting one to me:
8. Trillion Dollar Secret Slush Funds. There are over $1.6 trillion in unobligated funds. It is not clear, but apparently the money has already been disbursed by Treasury and is sitting in (off-shore?) bank accounts waiting to be spent. I would like to know more about this.
Update: Here is a document listing the unobligated funds. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/balances_fy2024.pdf
The Department of HUD by itself has $190 billion in unobligated funds. (How about abolishing HUD?). International Assistance Programs have $233 billion.
The State of the States
(Image source: https://www.countryclubprep.com/blogs/fox-tales/the-evolution-of-preppy-a-stylish-journey-from-the-1960s-to-today)
Truth in Accounting publishes an annual report called Financial State of the States. The latest version is here: https://www.truthinaccounting.org/library/doclib/Financial-State-of-the-States-2024.pdf
The states in the best financial shape are: North Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, and Tennessee. The states in the worst financial spare are: Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, and California.
I'm going to pick on Connecticut for a minutes because it's hard to beat Illinois. I've never been to Connecticut, but I have a really good image of the place. You can fact check this info later. It's full of rich people, whose kids go to Yale. They all have mansions in the nicest part of NYC, Fairfax County. They are driven to work in Manhattan in limos. They run the insurance companies, and build nuclear submarines, and have yachts and play tennis and croquet and polo and basketball and rugby. They row boats for fun (or is that Boston). The college kids all dress preppy, with white shorts and polo shirts and the girls all wear tennis skirts to show off their tan legs. And they wear sweaters with patterns on them. Every house has a huge green lawn. In the fall, when the leaves change colors it is to beautiful. And in the winter, they ride around in sleighs pulled by horses with bells.
So how could Connecticut be the armpit of the nation, worse than even New Jersey? Because it is so far in debt. The State of the States report says it is in debt $64.9 billion. The report says that this $44,300 per person. (I don't know how this is calculated because 3.6 million people live in the state). Compare this to New York which has slightly higher debt with $74.7 billion but a population of 19.5 million.
Why is Connecticut so much in debt? Most of it is unfunded pensions and retirement health benefits. But this can't be the whole picture. To be updated if I find out anything else.
Monday, December 2, 2024
NATO is incompetent and unnecessary
Read: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/fat-and-stupid-why-nato-is-good-for
The controversial topic of this post is that NATO is incompetent and unnecessary. It has a budget of about $4 billion (of which the US pays 70%), and employs about 10,000 people. NATO is a way for generals and bureaucrats to pretend to be important.
It is unnecessary because the true defense of Europe is done by the US European Command in Stuttgart, Germany. (The commander of the US European Command, US General Christopher Cavoli, is also the commander of NATO Allied Command Operations). NATO is basically just there to give the US Army permission to operate in Europe.
NATO also has political functions, with two parliamentary bodies, North Atlantic Council, and NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which duplicates the European Union. Members send separate ambassadors (aka Permanent Representatives) to NATO, to the European Union, and to Belgium, all located in Brussels.
The European Union also has its own military, separate from the US European Command and NATO, called the Common Security and Defence Policy, also located in Brussels, with its own budget of $250 billion per year. Also note that Belgium also has its own military, also headquartered in Brussels, but with only 25,000 soldiers.
NATO is incompetent because it doesn't actually do anything. It is a quasi-political organization, and a quasi-military body, but it is incompetent at both.
To be continued ...
========================================
Update: Nov 4
NATO has two separate militaries, Allied Command Operations (www.shape.nato.int), headquartered in Mons, Belgium, and Allied Command Transformation (www.act.nato.int) headquartered in Norfolk, VA.
ACT is totally woke and is promoting all-female teams as a strategic advantage. Because women are so good at war.
Gender is one area that has demonstrated operational advantage to NATO forces. Studies have shown that teams with diverse members generate a wider range of ideas and approaches. For example, according to Ms. Tess Butler, CEO of Ruddy Nice Ltd., the composition of wargaming teams can impact the tactics the team will use, with all female teams acting more often, but more covertly, as compared to all male teams. This diversity of thought delivers a decisive military advantage against NATO’s adversary, Russia, and in the deterrence and defence against all potential threats. Integrating gender perspective into military planning helps create warfighting dilemmas for the enemy. https://www.act.nato.int/article/gender-perspectives-warfighting-advantage/
Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies
Saturday, November 30, 2024
Star Wars vs the Wizard of Oz
- Luke Skywalker grew up on the a moisture farm on the Planet Tatooine with his uncle Owen Lars and aunt Baru.
- Dorothy Gale grew up on a farm in Kansas with her uncle Henry and aunt Em.
- Luke Skywalker's aunt and uncle were killed by Imperial Stormtroopers and their farmhouse burned, forcing him to set off on an adventure.
- Dorothy's aunt and uncle were hiding in the storm cellar when a tornado picks up the house that Dorothy is in and carries her off to Oz
- Luke Skywalker seeks advice from Obi Wan Kenobi.
- Dorothy seeks advice from Professor Marvel
- Luke Skywalker encounters Sand People, also known as Jawas
- Dorothy encounters Munchkins
- Luke has as companions, R2-D2, C3PO (gold colored), Chewbacca, and Han Solo
- Dorothy has as companions, Toto, The Tin Man, The Cowardly Lion, and the Scarecrow
- Star Wars has Darth Vader as a villain, who dresses all in black. He has magic powers, like levitating someone and applying a force choke.
- The Wizard of Oz has the Wicked Witch as a villain, who dresses all in black. She has magic powers, like sending fireballs with her fingers.
- Luke sees a hologram of Princess Leia, asking for help
- Dorothy sees a hologram of the Great and Powerful Oz
- Obi One Kenobi is killed by Darth Vader and his body vanishes, leaving only a robe
- The Wicked Witch of the West dies when Dorothy throws water on her, leaving only her clothes
- At one point in Star Wars, Luke and Han Solo disguise themselves as Stormtroopers
- At one point in the Wizard of Oz, the Tin Man, Cowardly Lion and Scarecrow disguise themselves as guards
- Star Wars ends with an award ceremony
- The Wizard of Oz ends with an award ceremony
- The Empire Strikes back has Cloud City
- The Wizard of Oz has the Emerald City
Jaguar
Transcript: For decades, Jaguar has been more than a name - it has been a symbol, a symbol of artistry and motion of precision crafted not just for the road but for the soul. Each curve each roar of the engine tells a story of relentless pursuit. A pursuit of excellence, of beauty, of power. Born from a legacy that spans generations, Jaguar represents the audacity to to dream Beyond limits. It's the harmony of engineering and emotion - the fusion of performance and elegance. It's not just a car, it's the culmination of passion driven by those who refuse to settle for anything less than extraordinary. It's the embodiment of motion as art where every detail, every line, every sound, has been sculpted with purpose crafted to awaken something deeper in all of us. Every mile in a Jaguar is a testament to what we stand for: courage, innovation, and a profound connection between driver and machine. This isn't just a journey, it's a love affair with the road. Jaguar - where legacy meets the future and passion drives us forward.
My comments: This is the best car commercial I have ever seen. Too bad it's totally fake and Jaguar sucks.
Friday, November 29, 2024
Buy Now Pay Later
There is a new (to me at least) concept in FinTech called Buy Now Pay Later. You can buy pretty much anything and then split it into 4 payments. It is kind of like reverse layaway. The biggest company seems to be AfterPay, but there are a whole slew of these: Affirm, Credova, Klarna, Uplift, Sezzle, Sunbit, Denefits, Zip.co, Quadpay, Payl8r, GoCardless, Clearpay, Paypal, Splitit, Amazon Pay, Zilch, Laybuy, Walmart One, Upgrade. (Also add in things like Best Buy and Home Depot that offer no interest plans as long as they are paid off on time, but then will charge the full deferred interest if it is not). They will charge a fee up front of up to 10%, but claim to be interest-free. They charge hefty late fees and interest on late payments. These are not reported to the credit bureaus unless a person is late. The total balance due on these plans is more than $700 billion, which is phantom debt. These can stop credit card companies and other credit analysts from discovering a person's true financial status.
A sub-category of this is payment for cruises: Princess EZpay, Virgin Voyages Flex Pay, Uplift, Royal Caribbean (Affirm), Carnival Book Now Pay Later, Klarna. You could go on a cruise paying only a small amount up front and without a credit check. It seems risky to the cruise lines, but it is a way to fill cruise ships.
Read: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/debt-credit-cards/2024/09/23/id/1181421/
Thursday, November 28, 2024
The Bacon Experiment
The Bacon Man, Dan Quibell, explains how he lost 20 lbs in one month eating 2 lbs of bacon per day.
Ukrainian Disinformation
After eight years of unsuccessful attempts to massacre all Russophiles in Donbas, Ukraine decided to attack the Russians in Crimea with the support of NATO and the United States. Unfortunately, Russia pre-empted this operation by invading Ukraine, which immediately began labeling the preemptive and limited Russian operation as “the largest military aggression in Europe since World War II: a large-scale, illegal, and unprovoked invasion.” https://larouchepub.com/other/interviews/2024/5146-why_ukraine_s_war_propaganda_i.html
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Fifty percent of all Federal employees only work 1 day per month at the office
https://x.com/benaverbook/status/1861511174061240436
The government workforce has been exposed:
• Half never returned to the office after COVID.
• Some show up just one day a month.
• Yet, they still collect full DC-level salaries.
They have Civil Service protection and they are unionized so they are impossible to fire. And when they do show up at the office, they will fly in for a long weekend, show up the last business day of a month, and then the first business day of the following month. Then presumably fly home or go on vacation for two months and repeat. They probably have to check email or do a video chat at least once a day. Oh by the way the average Federal employee salary is over $100,000 per year.
What is the solution? Well, these employees can't be fired. How about name and shame the worst offending agencies, and then put a total freeze on their promotions, pay raises, and hiring for the next 4 years. And make these agencies vacate their empty office space, and cut their budgets.
============================
Update:
Martin O'Malley, the current SSA Commissioner, resigned effective Nov. 29, 2024, to become the new DNC chairman. However, today, Dec 4, he signed a new deal extending the right of Social Security employees to work from home until 2029. How does that work?
A union representing thousands of federal and government workers landed members a work from home deal ahead of the The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) reached an agreement with the Social Security Administration (SSA) to protect telework, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing messages viewed by the outlet. The updated contract, which affects 42,000 government employees, will allow workers to stay hybrid until 2029. The deal was signed by President Biden's former SSA Commissioner, Martin O’Malley. incoming Trump administration's efforts to force workers to return to office.
How can he sign something binding the government for 5 years if he already resigned? This is a big middle finger to Trump by the deep bureaucracy.
Tuesday, November 26, 2024
Should the US Treasury stop paying interest on the National Debt?
It would save $1 trillion per year. Just cut the interest rate to 0% and only issue short-term bonds. Why should rich people have guaranteed income for no risk? If they want a bigger return, they can buy stocks.
Read: https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/how-to-cut-2-trillion-in-federal
Now imagine what would happen if, instead of the president jawboning the Fed, the 119th Congress decided to exercise greater control over this part of the federal budget. To do that, it could instruct the Federal Reserve to permanently bring the overnight interest rate down to ~zero percent and to rely on other tools to influence the broader economy. To ensure that interest expense falls toward zero over time, Congress could instruct the U.S. Treasury to stop issuing anything with duration beyond a 3-mo T-bill. Voilà! It wouldn’t just save $2 trillion, it would save tens of trillions of dollars over time.
Monday, November 25, 2024
Delinquent Credit Card Debt
Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1858229593909469385
Friday, November 22, 2024
National Debt hits $36 trillion
Source: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
This was about 4 months after it hit $35 trillion , and about 11 months after it hit $34 trillion (on 1/4/24). Just 3 months prior to that, on 9/15/23, it was at $33 trillion, and then 3 months prior to that, on 6/15/23 it was at $32 trillion. So in less than 18 months, it increased by $4 trillion.
Note that the national debt first hit $23 trillion on 11/7/2019. So it has gone up $13 trillion in 5 years. It first hit $18 trillion on 11/27/14, almost exactly 10 years ago. (It took 5 years to go up $5 trillion, from $18 trillion to $23 trillion, but in the next 5 years it went up $13 trillion). So the national debt should hit $72 trillion on about 12/1/2034.
The total national debt should hit $37 trillion on about June 1, 2025.
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Michael Hudson predicts that the Fed will crash the stock market and blame Trump
Read: https://michael-hudson.com/2024/11/a-concept-of-a-plan-for-the-national-interest/
I spent about 20 minutes reading half of this but I don't understand his point. But it is worth reading when I have time. He is predicting that the Fed will intentionally crash the stock market, but the Republicans don't know what they are doing.
Excerpt:
Right now, you have the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in order to somehow keep the stock market and bond market rising, so that when Trump takes over in January, the Fed can then say, Oh, there’s an inflation: let’s raise interest rates, crash the stock market, as a result of the Fed’s action, and then say, Look at what Trump has done: he’s collapsed the stock market.
The economy is going down (because the economy is the stock market: the economy is what… 10% of the population has 87% of the stocks); so essentially they want to set Trump up for blame. He realizes that and I think that’s what he wants the Treasury to do.
So, now we have Mr. Scott Bessent put in. He’s a hedge fund manager. Imagine looking at the economy as if it were a hedge fund? A hedge fund is a zero-sum game: you bet against somebody else in the financial horse race, and if you win (and he became a billionaire doing this), then somebody has to lose.
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Monday, November 18, 2024
The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet is now less than $7 trillion for the first time since 2020.
See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
The balance sheet is now at $6.967 trillion. It has been dropping at the rate of about $50 billion per month, so if this trend continues, it will be below $6 trillion by the summer of 2026. With a lower balance sheet, the Fed should be able to lower the interest that it pays and to lower its losses, which continue at the rate of about $6.5 billion per month.
How much of the balance sheet is for reverse repos? It is now $214 billion. (See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD ). This is money the Fed is borrowing, at market interest rates, from mutual funds. This number should be at $0. The Fed doesn't need the money (since it can create money out of thin air), and the mutual funds can invest their money in US treasury bonds, of which there are a lot. Maybe the Fed should reduce the interest rates it pays on the reverse repos, currently at about 4.5%, to discourage mutual funds from using this, and to save a little interest expense, since the Fed is losing money. But the Fed doesn't care about losing money - they care more about bailing out their Wall Street buddies.
Hopefully this situation will resolve itself in a few months, with the balance sheet keep dropping. On the other hand if there is a crisis in early 2025, either through a recession starting, or a bank crisis because of BTFP expiring, or because Congress cannot agree to quickly raise the debt ceiling (which expires on Jan 2, 2025), then the Fed may do an emergency QE program and raise the Fed balance sheet above $10 trillion.
===========
Update: Now the Fed is talking about lowering the RRP rate from 4.55% to 4.5% to discourage its use.
Eliminating the 5 basis-point spread between the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate and the bottom of the monetary policy rate would make the reverse repo facility -- widely viewed as a proxy for excessive liquidity -- marginally less appealing. Some Fed officials at the Nov. 6-7 meeting felt that "at a future meeting, there would be value in the (Federal Open Market) Committee considering a technical adjustment to the rate offered at the ON RRP facility" to bring it back down to equal the bottom of the policy rate range, according to the minutes.
Friday, November 15, 2024
Alex Jones is back
The reported sale of InfoWars.com and studio to The Onion was either a hoax or blocked by the bankruptcy judge for some reason. In any event, Alex Jones is back, crazier and madder than ever. This may be temporary, but at the moment, Alex Jones is back in his studio.
Maybe I should get an X account.
Update: Apparently Elon Musk is stepping in to save the day.
Thursday, November 14, 2024
The Department of Government Efficiency
Congress investigates reports of UFOs
https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-exposing-the-truth/
https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Written-Testimony-Shellenberger.pdf
There is, however, a growing body of evidence that the government is not being transparent about what it knows about unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP), formerly called UFOs, and that elements within the military and IC are in violation of their Constitutional duty to notify Congress of their operations.
October deficit was $257 billion
Read: https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts1024.pdf
There were revenues of $326.8 billion but expenditures of $584.2 billion. In October 2023, the deficit was only $67 billion.
Net interest for October was $80 billion, up from $76 billion in October 23, which is only a 5% increase, helped by slightly lower rates.
The national debt as of 10/31/24 was $35.95 trillion, up from $33.7 trillion as of 10/31/23, an increase of 6.7%.
The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $207 billion (as of 10/30/24), up from $199.8 billion (as of 9/25/24), an increase of $7.2 billion, but note that this covered 5 weeks, because the Fed does weekly reports.
Why did the government spend so much money? The biggest thing that stands out is Medicare, which jumped from spending $24 billion in October 23 to $77 billion in October 24. I don't see any explanation for it. Also, national defense increased from $87 billion in 10/23 to $103 billion in 10/24. And Veterans Affairs jumped from $14 billion to $30 billion - what is going on there? Is this a free-for-all in the last days of the Biden administration?
=========
The CBO says that the October deficit was $255 billion.
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are coordinating interest rates
On November 7, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% from a range of 4.75% to 5.00% to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.
On November 7, 2024, the Bank of England cut rates by 0.25% from 5.00% to 4.75%.
On December 18 or 19, 2024, both banks will have meetings again to determine interest rates. What are the odds that they will both cut rates by 0.25%?
-------------------------------------------------------
2024 FOMC Meetings - December 17 - 18. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
"This Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published on 19 December 2024." https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2024/december-2024
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Does this signal that a recession is coming?
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#
Every time since 1980 that the 10Y-2Y yield curve is negative, then become positive, a recession occurs. Furthermore, this occurs right when the 10Y-2Y hits +0.5.
Read also: https://confoundedinterest.net/2024/09/20/hard-landing-10y-2y-yield-curve-suggests-coming-recession/
Today, 11/7/24, the 10Y yield is at 4.3% and the 2Y yield is at 4.2%, so this is +0.1. If the Fed cuts rates again on 12/17/24 by another 0.25% as I just predicted, then this will almost be enough to push the economy into recession. Or maybe it is a coincidental indicator not a cause of it - "correlation does not equal causation". If the Fed cuts rates again on January 30, 2025, then this will almost certainly signal that a recession has occurred (or cause it, depending on your point of view).
I think that the Fed is following the 17 year script and will lead us right into a recession, which I am guessing will start on February 1, 2025, just as Trump takes office as a "present" for him.
Fed cuts rates 0.25 percent following 17 year cycle
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-21
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-cuts-rates-by-05-on-september-18.html
I have already pointed out the freakishness of the 17 year cycle here: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/02/17-year-cycle.html
On September 18, 2007, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%.
On September 18, 2024, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%, exactly 17 years later.
On October 31, 2007, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%.
On November 7, 2024, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%, 17 years and 7 days later.
--------------------------------------
I feel like history is repeating itself almost exactly. If trends continue, look out for these dates:
December 1, 2007, the recession officially began, although it was not officially called until much later by the BEA. (Will a recession begin on December 1, 2024?)
December 11, 2007, the Fed cut rates another 0.25%. (There is a Fed meeting on December 17-18, 2024, will the Fed cut rates another 0.25% on that date?)
January 22, 2008, the Fed cut rates another 0.75%. (There is a Fed meeting on Jan 30-31, 2025, will the Fed cut rates by another 0.75% at that time? This seems crazy and would only happen if there is a crisis of some sort).
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
How America Became Unburdened By What Has Been
Here is an excellent summary listing the 10 reasons why Trump won.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2024/11/how-america-became-unburdened-by-what-has-been/
1. “It’s The Economy, Stupid!”
2. Immigration, Both Legal & Illegal, Is Out Of Control
3. Folks Are Afraid Of World War III
4. The Media’s Smears Against Trump No Longer Work
5. Musk Restored Freedom Of Speech Online
Monday, November 4, 2024
Election Prediction - Harris will win
This is my prediction of what will happen tomorrow and in the next few weeks after that, when they finish counting and recounting. There was massive fraud in 2020 that hasn't been addressed, and it will happen again in Pennsylvania.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
GDP is now $29.35 trillion
Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $333.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.35 trillion. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate
One year ago it was $27.6 trillion, so it has increased 6.3% over the last year. Debt to the public is at $28.45 trillion, so the ratio is 96.9%. One year ago the ratio was at 96.0%.
Total national debt outstanding is $35.8 trillion, so the ratio (of national debt to GDP) is 122%.
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
New Largest Prime Number
October 21, 2024 — The Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) has discovered a new Mersenne prime number, 2136,279,841-1. At 41,024,320 digits, it eclipses by more than 16 million digits the previous largest known prime number found by GIMPS nearly 6 years ago.
Source: https://www.mersenne.org/
The previous largest prime number was 2^82,589,933-1. So there is a ginormous gap between the previous prime and this. I think there must be some other prime number hiding in the gap, waiting to be discovered.
Thursday, October 17, 2024
Alex Berenson v Joseph R Biden Jr
Read the complaint here, all 94 pages of it.
https://envisage.law/alex-berenson-v-president-joe-biden-et-al-amended/
Biden conspired with Andrew Slavitt and other to deny Alex Berenson his First Amendment rights. I hope the defendants get slapped, hard. This will probably go to the Supreme Court.
What is the Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard?
So there is a buzzword going around in the social welfare system - Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard - also known as RPPS. It basically means that foster parents should use their common sense when making decisions for their foster children. But what is the legal definition?
It has its origins in the "Preventing Sex Trafficking and Strengthening Families Act" of 2014:
Sec 111 SUPPORTING NORMALCY FOR CHILDREN IN FOSTER CARE
(a) Reasonable and Prudent Parent Standard.—
(3) Technical assistance.— The Secretary of Health and Human Services shall provide assistance to the States on best practices for devising strategies to assist foster parents in applying a reasonable and prudent parent standard in a manner that protects child safety, while also allowing children to experience normal and beneficial activities, including methods for appropriately considering the concerns of the biological parents of a child in decisions related to participation of the child in activities (with the understanding that those concerns should not necessarily determine the participation of the child in any activity).
From 42 USC § 675(10):
(10) (A) The term “reasonable and prudent parent standard” means the standard characterized by careful and sensible parental decisions that maintain the health, safety, and best interests of a child while at the same time encouraging the emotional and developmental growth of the child, that a caregiver shall use when determining whether to allow a child in foster care under the responsibility of the State to participate in extracurricular, enrichment, cultural, and social activities. (B) For purposes of subparagraph (A), the term “caregiver” means a foster parent with whom a child in foster care has been placed or a designated official for a child care institution in which a child in foster care has been placed.
It is also referenced in 42 USC 671(10):
(B)that the standards established pursuant to subparagraph (A) shall be applied by the State to any foster family home or child care institution receiving funds under this part or part B and shall require, as a condition of each contract entered into by a child care institution to provide foster care, the presence on-site of at least 1 official who, with respect to any child placed at the child care institution, is designated to be the caregiver who is authorized to apply the reasonable and prudent parent standard to decisions involving the participation of the child in age or developmentally-appropriate activities, and who is provided with training in how to use and apply the reasonable and prudent parent standard in the same manner as prospective foster parents are provided the training pursuant to paragraph (24);
(C)that the standards established pursuant to subparagraph (A) shall include policies related to the liability of foster parents and private entities under contract by the State involving the application of the reasonable and prudent parent standard, to ensure appropriate liability for caregivers when a child participates in an approved activity and the caregiver approving the activity acts in accordance with the reasonable and prudent parent standard
This all seems kind of vague. How is it applied? It comes up when there is a decision to be made for the foster child. Who makes the decision - do you need to go to court and get a judge to sign an order, or do you have to ask the caseworker, or do you have to ask the biological parent, or do you ask the child? It depends on the type of decision. But for most decisions, the foster parent can decide.
But what is the actual standard? I haven't found the legal definition of the standard (but I will keep looking), but each state welfare system provides its own definition. Here is a typical one:
The reasonable and prudent parent standard asks caregivers to make decisions for youth just as they would for their own children. It is characterized by careful and sensible decisions that maintain the health, safety, and best interest of the child, while also encouraging growth through participation in age and developmentally appropriate activities. (Source: https://www.nj.gov/dcf/about/divisions/dcpp/rpps_pg.html)
So it basically delegates to the foster parent the decision making authority based on the "best interest of the child", which is another vague buzzword.
This raises an interesting question - what if the foster child challenges the foster parent's decision? How would they do so, could they contact the caseworker and complain or could they get an attorney (a guardian ad litem) and go to court and ask the judge to decide?
Monday, October 14, 2024
CBZ Management versus the City of Aurora
Read: https://x.com/CbzManagement/
Source: @CbzManagement |
CBZ Management, which is based in Brooklyn NY, is an an X rampage against Aurora. The photo, taken in late 2023, shows a property manager for CBZ (Zev Baumgarten?) who was nearly beaten to death after confronting Venezuelan squatters in one of the apartments he was managing. The city continues to deny that there is any problem.
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
September 2024 surplus was $63 billion
Read: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-10/60730-MBR.pdf
The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023.
Net interest on the public debt was $950 billion for the year, and $80 billion for September [$950 billion - $870 billion as of the end of August].
==========================
The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $199.8 billion as of 9/25/2024, (the last Wednesday in fiscal year 2024), compared to $193.3 billion as of 8/28/24. So this increased $6.5 billion in the month.
==========================
The National Debt as of 9/30/24 is $35.465 trillion. One year earlier on 9/30/23 it was $33.167 trillion. So it increased 6.9% in one year.
==========================
Note that the National Debt increased $2.3 trillion in one year, but the deficit for the year was only $1.8 trillion. So there is a "leakage", for lack of a better term, of $500 billion. So projections of the debt should include this.
Monday, September 30, 2024
The Bilt Card
Sanctions don't work anymore
Read: https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/collapsing-empire-the-day-sanctions
Accordingly, WaPo reports that the deleterious “overuse” of sanctions “is recognized at the highest levels” of the US government, and “concern about their impact has grown” in line with their use: “Some senior administration officials have told President Biden directly that overuse of sanctions risks making the tool less valuable.” However, US officials still can’t kick their sanctions habit, “[tending] to see each individual action as justified, making it hard to stop the trend.”
As the mainstream media is now frequently forced to admit, Western sanctions on Moscow not only failed to produce universally forecast economic destruction, but revitalised domestic industry and increased wages for average citizens. In May, The Spectator begrudgingly observed, “Russians are spending more on restaurants, white goods, and even property - they’ve never had it so good.” Meanwhile, Europe, electively cut off from the country’s cheap energy supplies due to those sanctions, is deindustrialising at rapacious speed.
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Will the Port strike shut down the economy next week?
Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpqhYxd3ShI
The International Longshoreman's Association (ILA) will go on strike on October 1. They represent 85,000 port workers in Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, Miami, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington NC, Norfolk, Baltimore, Wilmington DE, Philadelphia, Ports of NJ and NY, and Boston and others. 56% of all US cargo traffic will be affected.
If the strike lasts more than a few days, the effects will be devastating. This may be an exaggeration, but auto dealers may be forced to close (because new cars can't be delivered), and gas stations may be forced to close (because they run out of gas), and delivery by trucks will stop. Amazon may have to shut down. Christmas may have to be cancelled because consumer good can't be obtained.
The ILA workers are currently paid an average of $39/hour and want a 77% raise over the next 6 years. They also want a total ban on any port automation, including presumably automated gates, self-driving trucks, robotic cranes, etc. The USMX has offered a 40% increase in wages. The pay is probably not the sticking point, but the automation is.
I think the ILA position is unreasonable, and the strike will probably go on for a few weeks until the President (or whoever is controlling him) will step in and force a settlement right before the election, which won't make his party popular.
Let's see what happens. I think it will be crazy in about a week.
Update: The strike has been postponed until January 15, 2025, just in time for the new president to deal with. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/business/port-strike-ends-whats-next/index.html
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Renminbi with duplicate serial numbers
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Dark Winter
Dark Winter was an extremely realistic pandemic war game exercise held just before 9/11 in 2001 involving a fictional smallpox attack. It predicted rioting and the National Guard on the streets and basically the imposition of martial law. This influenced the handling of Covid-19.
Read: https://substack.com/@democracymanifest/p-148108121
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-pandemic-war-games-simulation-dark-winter/
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/34/7/972/316999
Fed cuts rates by 0.5% on September 18
2007, that is.
Interest rates slashed to help economy
Fed's dramatic action lowers target on key short-term rate for the first time in 4 years - to 4.75% - and signals more cuts could be coming.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve cut the target on a key short-term interest rate by half of a percentage point Tuesday to 4.75% in a bold acknowledgement that the central bank is concerned the mortgage meltdown plaguing Wall Street and Main Street could hurt the economy. The Fed also indicated that more rate cuts could be on the way, news that investors cheered. Stocks surged following the announcement.
From: https://money.cnn.com/2007/09/18/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm
Commentary: I think the Fed is following a script and will announce cuts of half a percentage today. To be updated with the breaking news later today.
================
Update:
Jumbo-sized rate cut: Fed slashes rates by a half percentage point
By Bryan Mena, Elisabeth Buchwald and Krystal Hur, CNN
Updated 5:09 PM EDT, Wed September 18, 2024
What we're covering here
In a significant shift for the US economy, the Federal Reserve announced a jumbo-sized rate cut Wednesday, its first rate reduction cut since Covid. It’s a major economic milestone both for the central bank’s long fight with inflation and for Americans battling a higher cost of living for the past two years.
From: https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-09-18-24/index.html
==============
Future rate cut schedule:
FOMC Meeting Cut New Rate
=========== ===== ========
Sep. 18, 2024 -50 4.75%
Oct. 31, 2024 -25 4.50%
Dec. 11, 2024 -25 4.25%
Jan. 22, 2025 -75 3.50%
Jan. 30, 2025 -50 3.00%
Mar. 18, 2025 -75 2.25%
Apr. 30, 2025 -25 2.00%
From: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
(I just took the historical dates in 2007 and 2008 and added 17 years to them).
The recession will start on December 1, 2024 if the 17-year cycle continues to repeat.
Sunday, September 15, 2024
Report on the UK National Debt
Read: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ldselect/ldeconaf/5/5.pdf
The summary is three pages long, but I think this states it succinctly: To ensure debt is on a sustainable path, we face a choice. If we wish to improve the level and quality of services, and continue the current provision of benefits, taxes will need to rise. The alternative is that the state does less. Addressing this will demand clarity as to the responsibilities and role of the individual versus that of the state. If this choice is ducked during this Parliament, the UK risks being on a path to unsustainable debt. Muddling through is not an option.
It doesn't give a year when it thinks debt levels would be unsustainable.
It might be interesting to read this and pick out the British idioms. Here are a few:
- muddling through
- ducked
- fit for purpose
- pump prime ("prime the pump")
- gilt (meaning "bond")
- short-termism