We need to spend Moar!

Read: how far can we push this thing

It would be reasonable to expand fiscal deficits by around 5% of GDP provided we see no evidence of sustained, rapid nominal wage growth. This should raise annual nominal GDP growth to around 10.9% of which around 6% will be real GDP growth and around 4.9% will be inflation.

Let's see, GDP is about $20 trillion now, so that would be another $1 trillion per year, raising our budget deficit from about $900 billion per year to $1.9 trillion.  If we could wait a few years, we will be having a $1.9 trillion deficit by 2032 if we do nothing. 

The author thinks that inflation is nothing to worry about that and that ghosts from the 70s still haunt us.  Inflationphobia reigns everywhere supreme.  Just wait until inflation is "baked into the cake" so to speak.  It is like a cancer and almost impossible to get rid of.  Last time, it took chemotherapy by Paul Volcker by raising the Fed Funds rate to 20% in 1981 to get rid of it.

This is just another pseudo-scientific article that attempts to justify more government spending.

(By the way, "Moar" is an intentional mispelling, which indicates satire.)

Count I - The Trump Campaign Lied About Contacts With Russia

Charge A. The Trump Campaign benefited, through WikiLeaks, from the Russian hacking of the Democratic emails, and sought further information about the leaks, while simultaneously denying that Russia was responsible for the hacks.

This allegation does not support a finding of obstruction of justice It doesn't matter whether the Trump Campaign may or may not have benefited indirectly, and it doesn't matter if Trump expressed skepticism about the hacks. What matters is whether there was a conspiracy. This is a rehash of the Part I of the Mueller report which found that there was no conspiracy.

Furthermore, there was an "innocent" explanation for the interest in Russia. Trump wanted to change US policy towards Russia, such as dropping sanctions. And Trump wanted to have the investigation dropped because of concerns that it would de-legitimize his election.

And there was a "not-so innocent" explanation. It is natural to seek dirt on one's opponents, and it isn't necessarily a crime to do so. There is a further charge related to this, about the June 9, 2016 meeting.

However, this does not mean that there weren't any improper contacts with Russia. The criminal case against Roger Stone continues, but he is presumed innocent. Paul Manafort is already in prison, although for other things (fraud and tax evasion). The Michael Cohen situation is the most disturbing, and this is reviewed in detail in Charge L.

There is a related accusation that Trump was personally benefiting through continued business ties to Russia while denying this. The only possible business tie was about discussions about the Trump Tower and whether they continued. "The President-Elect continued to deny any connections to Russia", whereas Michael Cohen said that efforts to build the tower continued until June 2016.

Trump is parsing words here. He had no investments in Russia, but he did have possible business interests. He should have said, "Yea we were talking about building a tower in Moscow but decided not to, that is my only connection." There is nothing wrong with a businessman talking about building a tower, but he could have been clearer. This doesn't mean that he lied about political contacts with Russia, which he didn't.

The Eleven Accusations Against Trump

The first part of the Mueller Report found that there was no conspiracy. "Ultimately , the investigation did not establish that the Campaign coordinated or conspired with the Russian government in its election-interference activities."

However, the second part does not make a conclusion. "At the same time , if we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the President clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state. Based on the facts and the applicable legal standards, we are unable to reach that judgment. Accordingly, while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him."

These are the eleven charges as laid out in the Table of Contents of the Obstruction of Justice Investigation. I have changed the wording.

A. The Trump Campaign benefited, through WikiLeaks, from the Russian hacking of the Democratic emails, and sought further information about the leaks, while simultaneously denying that Russia was responsible for the hacks.

B. Trump fired Flynn in part in order to stop the Russian investigation by Comey.

C. Trump attempted to stop the special investigation by Mueller by attempting to get Sessions to un-recuse and by reaching out to Comey. He also attempted to get the Director of National Intelligence, the the leaders of the CIA and NSA to stop the investigation.

D. Trump fired Comey in an attempt to stop the investigation and lied about why he had fired him.

E. Trump attempted to get McGahn to fire Mueller.

F. Trump attempted to get Lewandowski and Priebus to fire Mueller.

G. Trump attempted to cover up a June 9, 2016 meeting between Donald Trump Jr and a Russian lawyer who was offering damaging information about Hillary Clinton.

H. Trump again attempted to have Sessions un-recuse himself in October 2017 and December 2017.

I. Trump attempted to get McGahn to lie about the earlier attempt to fire Mueller.

J. Trump attempted to have Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, and Roger Stone keep quiet about the investigation.

K. Trump called Michael Cohen a "rat" after he "flipped".

I'm going to go through these in turn when I have time.

See also https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/10-times-trump-might-have-obstructed-justice

Worst Redaction Ever

Hmm.  I started typing in the phrase "says he won't agree to plea" and it filled in "deal" and "cnn".  The missing phrase on the second HOM is "Roger Stone associate".

I don't know exactly what the first HOM is but it includes "Stone" or "Roger Stone".

Also, previously on the page  (vol II, page 128), there is a redaction: "Manafort, Corsi, HOM. It's actually very brave."  The missing phrase there is obviously "Roger Stone".

Update:  There are more obvious redactions about Roger Stone.  On vol II, page 6: Conduct towards Flynn, Manafort, [HOM][Stone],  and later on that page after "flipping" "almost ought to be outlawed." [Harm to Ongoing Matter].  I think this says something like: "Roger Stone has been indicted and charges have been brought against him in the U.S. District Court in Washington DC".

And then on vol II, page 15: "Trump also expressed skepticism that Russia had hacked the emails at the same time as he and other Campaign advisors privately sought information [HOM] about any
further planned WikiLeaks releases."  HOM there reads "from Roger Stone".

Also on page 17: "Some witnesses said that Trump himself discussed the possibility of upcoming releases [HOM]", the HOM is "from Stone".

April 23 was the Peak

On April 23, 2019,  the S and P closed at 2,933, an all time-high.  Yesterday, April 24, it closed at 2927, so it slipped a little, but not much.

The Dow closed at 26,656, which wasn't an all-time high but it was close.  The Dow's high was on October 3, 2018 when it closed at 26,828.

For the week ending April 13, 2019, jobless claims were only 192,000.  This was a 50-year low. "New claims have totaled less than 200,000 for the second week in a row, a feat last accomplished in the fall of 1969, when Richard Nixon was in his first year as president." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-dive-even-lower-to-192000-sit-at-nearly-50-year-low-2019-04-18  Hmm, comparisons to Nixon again.

So if April 23 was the Peak, what comes after the Peak?  Class, repeat after me.  The stages in a business cycle are trough, recovery, expansion, peak, _________.   So if we are after the Peak does that mean we are in a __________.

No, no, please no, not that, don't say the word. It can't be.  The stock market is still soaring, right?  An jobless claims are below 200,000, right.  Right?

Update: The S and P closed at 2939 on April 26.

Update 2: The S and P closed at 2945 on April 30.

Update 3 (May 7): The S and P 500 was actually 2945.83 on 4/30/19.  It was 2945.64 on 5/3/19, within a hair breadth of being the same number.  So let's call 5/3/19 the Peak.  Also on 5/3/19 came a report that the unemployment rate had dropped from 3.8% in March to 3.6% in April, the lowest since December 1969. However, the labor force participation rate also dropped.  Anyways, after the Peak, business is still good, but it is receding, and therefore it is call a ________.  It's possible the SP could rise again and that the unemployment rate could drop some more, but I think this is it.  Especially since the Dow dropped 473 points today (5/7).

More sex in the Mueller Report

Mueller Report, page 179

Ok, this is pure speculation on my part.  We know that the redaction on page 109, for Personal Privacy reasons, was about the Bill Clinton having phone sex.  Section 1030 is about accessing a protected computer without authorization.  So I think it is obvious what this is about.  Drum roll please.

I think it is about Anthony Weiner who had thousands of top-secret emails from Hillary Clinton on his laptop.  His wife Huma Abedin was Clinton's deputy chief of staff.  I think that Mueller discussed charging Weiner with violations of Section 1030 and decided not to, because he is already in prison for sexting a minor.  Then this section of the report was redacted to save everyone more embarassment.  I could be wrong, but the combination of "Personal Privacy" and Section 1030 make this the most likely explanation.

Sex in the Mueller Report

Page 109 of the Muller Report contains this juicy tidbit:

Now read: Mueller Report Includes Claim That Russia Taped Bill Clinton Having Phone Sex With Monica Lewinsky  and
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/mueller-report-contains-claim-russia-taped-bill-clinton-having-phone-sex-with-monica-lewinsky

The redacted section supposedly says: "Simes told Kushner that, the Russians intercepted a phone call of then-President Bill Clinton having phone sex with White House intern Monica Lewinsky   while the president was traveling on Air Force One. Simes claimed that he had received this information from former CIA and Reagan White House official Fritz Ermarth ...."

How do we know it says this?  Because Fritz Ermarth, who is now 78, told Dimitri Simes this.  But Ermarth claims he got it from public sources not from intelligence sources.

Wolf Richter and Max Keiser

I have not watched this but it looks very interesting.

By the way, YouTube wants to warn you that "RT is funded in whole or in part by the Russian government".  Please shut up YouTube, I think RT is much more credible than CNN or any of the other controlled media.

The Centuries-Old Debt That's Still Paying Interest

In the archives of Yale University, there's a 367-year-old bond from the water authority of Lekdijk Bovendams, in the Netherlands. And it's still paying interest.

Can you pay off the debt by printing more money?

I want to introduce this by thinking about Fed-owned national debt.  The current amount of U.S. Treasury securities owned by the Federal Reserve, as of 4/10/19, is $2.153 trillion.  This is a real asset but purchased with funny money.  The money to buy this was created out of thin air. The Fed now has an asset (Treasury bonds) which pays interest, and in turn they have a liability (bank reserves) upon which they pay interest.  The interest received from the Treasury is hopefully more than the interest paid out, and the profit is used to pay Fed expenses and the excess is paid back to the Treasury.  So really, this amount should be subtracted from the National Debt.  It has in effect been retired.  For my calculations on the debt ratio, this should be subtracted.

The total debt held by the public is now about  $16.2 trillion.  Subtract out the Fed owned amount and there is really about $14 trillion outstanding.  Hypothetically, could the Fed stop paying interest on excess reserves and just buy up the entire balance?  So now  the Fed would own the entire debt.  And then any interest received, just remit it back to the Treasury. So the conclusion is, that no, you could not pay off the debt this way. But you could stop paying interest on it.

What if you swapped the debt for non-interest bearing perpetual bonds?  A perpetual bond never has to be paid back, and in some ways it is more like a stock than a bond, although it has no voting rights. It still has value, the same as a dollar bill has value.  How about making these perpetual bonds bearer instruments , with $100,000 and $1 million bills?  At this point, the national debt isn't a problem at all, because you don't have to pay interest on it, and you never have to pay it back.  So it has in effect been paid off. With cash.  You can just forget about it, except for maybe replacing worn bills.  

So that is my magic trick for the day.  Yes, you could pay off the national debt by printing cash.  And it wouldn't be a default, except for not paying interest in the future.  If there is a choice between defaulting on principal and defaulting on future interest payments, it would be better to default on the future interest payments.

So we just solved the debt problem.  Only now, every bank in the country would go out of business and all the bankers and financiers would be unemployed.  But maybe that wouldn't be such a bad thing.

Accordingly

I don't think I have ever used the word "accordingly" before in my life.  But it is a major buzzword in the Mueller Report, and describes a conclusion.  Again, some of these are in the negative. Here are the occurrences of it.

Accordingly, while this report embodies factual and legal determinations that the Office believes to be accurate and complete to the greatest extent possible, given these identified gaps, the Office cannot rule out the possibility that the unavailable information would shed additional light on (or cast in a new light) the events described in the report.

Accordingly, the Office did not charge any Campaign associate or other U.S. person with conspiracy to defraud the United States based on the Russia-related contacts described in Section IV above.

Accordingly, taking into account the high burden to establish a culpable mental state in a campaign-finance prosecution and the difficulty in establishing the required valuation, the Office decided not to pursue criminal campaign-finance charges against Trump Jr. or other campaign officials for the events culminating in the June 9 meeting.

Accordingly, the Office concluded that the evidence was insufficient to prove that Sessions was willfully untruthful in his answers and thus insufficient to obtain or sustain a conviction for perjury or false statements.

Accordingly, while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.

Accordingly, determinations on intent are frequently reached without the opportunity to interview an investigatory subject.

Our investigation accordingly did not produce evidence that established that the President knew about Flynn's
discussions of sanctions before the Department of Justice notified the White House of those discussions in late January 2017.

Accordingly, the President accepted the recommendation of his Deputy Attorney General to remove James Comey from his position."

The evidence accordingly indicates that news that an obstruction investigation had been opened is what led the President to call McGahn to have the Special Counsel terminated.

Accordingly, since no established principle of interpretation would exclude the presidential conduct we have investigated from statutes such as Sections 1503, 1505, 1512(b), and 1512(c)(2), we proceed to examine the separation-of-powers issues that could be raised as an Article II defense to the application of those statutes.

Accordingly, because the separation-of-powers question is "whether the removal restrictions are of such a nature that they impede the President's ability to perform his constitutional duty," a restriction on removing an inferior officer for a corrupt reason-a reason grounded in achieving personal rather than official ends-does not seriously hinder the President's performance of his duties. 

Accordingly, based on the analysis above, we were not persuaded by the argument that the President has blanket constitutional immunity to engage in acts that would corruptly obstruct justice through the exercise of otherwise-valid Article II powers.
Accordingly, the President has no reason to be chilled in those actions because, in virtually all instances, there will be no credible basis for suspecting a corrupt personal motive.
Accordingly, the President's conduct of office should not be chilled based on hypothetical concerns about the possible application of a corrupt-motive standard in this context.

Findings in the Mueller Report or the lack thereof

When the word "find" is used in a legal sense, a fact has been established.  There are lots of facts in the Mueller report and the word "find" is not used with most of them.  But report did use the word "find" a few times, as follows.  Usually these are in the negative sense, i.e. "did not find". (I am omitting occurrences of the regular meaning of "find", as in "find the missing emails" or "find out".)

The investigation did not find evidence of earlier GRU attempts to compromise accounts hosted on this domain. 

During the same interview, Corsi also suggested that he may have sent out public tweets because he knew Assange was reading his tweets. Our Office was unable to find evidence of any such tweets. 

The investigation did not find evidence that the Trump Campaign recovered any such Clinton emails, or that these contacts were part of a coordinated effort between Russia and the Trump Campaign. 

The investigation did not find evidence that Clovis responded to Klein's email or that any further contacts of significance came out of Klein's subsequent meeting with Greenblatt and Rabbi Lazar at Trump Tower. 

Following the June 9 meeting, Trump changed the subject of his planned speech to national security. But the Office did not find evidence that the original idea for the speech was connected to the anticipated June 9 meeting or that the change of topic was attributable to the failure of that meeting to produce concrete evidence about Clinton. 

In particular, the Office did not find evidence likely to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Campaign officials such as Paul Manafort, George Papadopoulos, and Carter Page acted as agents of the Russian government-or at its direction control, or request-during the relevant time period. 

On four occasions, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) issued warrants based on a finding of probable cause to believe that Page was an agent of a foreign power. The FISC's probable-cause finding was based on a different (and lower) standard than the one governing the Office's decision whether to bring charges against Page, which is whether admissible evidence would likely be sufficient to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Page acted as an agent of the Russian Federation during the period at issue. 

The Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) has issued an opinion finding that "the indictment or criminal prosecution of a sitting President would impermissibly undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned functions" in violation of "the constitutional separation of powers." 

Although a prosecutor's internal report would not represent a formal public accusation akin to an indictment, the possibility of the report's public disclosure and the absence of a neutral adjudicatory forum to review its findings counseled against potentially determining "that the person's conduct constitutes a federal offense. 

Even if the removal of the lead prosecutor would not prevent the investigation from continuing under a new appointee, a factfinder would need to consider whether the act had the potential to delay further action in the investigation, chill the actions of any replacement Special Counsel, or otherwise impede the investigation.

By publicly stating on the second day of deliberations that Manafort "happens to be a very good person" and that "it's very sad what they've done to Paul Manafort" right after calling the Special Counsel's investigation a "rigged witch hunt," the President's statements could, if they reached jurors, have the natural tendency to engender sympathy for Manafort among jurors, and a factfinder could infer that the President intended that result. 

We did not find counsel's contention, however, to accord with our reading of the Supreme Court authority addressing separation-of-powers issues . 

OLC recognized that "[t]he balancing analysis" it had initially relied on in finding that a sitting President is immune from prosecution had "been adopted as the appropriate mode of analysis by the Court."

That is 13 occurrences.  I would have expected many more.

Monospaced Fonts

I suddenly have become a fan of using monospace fonts for technical writing.  Courier is the default but it isn't the best.  I've been using Liberation Mono.

The revitalization of Waco

From: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/waco-texas-magnolia-fixer-upper-antioch-chip-joanna-gaines
When I visited Magnolia Market, the “Wow Wall” — which greets visitors when they first step into the building — was painted with a slogan: THE WORLD NEEDS WHO YOU WERE MADE TO BE. It’s a nice sentiment — one I saw dozens of customers Instagramming themselves in front of. And it reaffirms the entire premise of Magnolia, the entire posture of the New Waco, the entire thesis of “restoration.” All you need is a little fixing.

Chip and Jo listed among Time's 100 most influential
“On Fixer Upper, when I helped Jo and Chip build an accessible home for a family with two children in wheelchairs, I saw firsthand the genuine passion they have for making a difference in people’s lives,” Tebow writes. “(I also learned that Chip is just as competitive as I am, and that Jo is ready to tackle any problems that arise.) They are also grounded in a strong faith, which keeps them focused on what truly matters in life. People matter. Loving people matters. And Jo and Chip are amazing at loving people.”

I traveled to Waco, Texas, to see the town that has been transformed by HGTV's hit show 'Fixer Upper' — here's what it's like
 

Mueller Report: Three-word cliches

A three word cliche is like: "catch and release".  But it can become a word like catch-and-release policy.  This is a list of the three-word cliches I found in the report.

hack-and-release
hacking-and-dumping
hack-and-dump
tit for tat
Thing-of-Value
face-to-face
search-and-seizure
last-in-time
tug-of-war
editor-in-chief
off-the-record
son-in-law
father-in-law
one-on-one
behind-the-scenes
Mar-a-Lago
get-out-the-vote
obstruction-of-justice
Separation-of-Powers
contempt-of-Congress
conflict-of-interest
rank-and-file
"lock and load"
on-again-off-again
case-by-case
take a raincheck
quid pro quo
go-to guy
"lift the cloud"
on thin ice
that ship had sailed
slip of the tongue
heat of the moment
shock collar

Technical Analysis of the Mueller Report: Triple Negatives

By technical analysis, I just mean that I do search on certain words and see if they appear.

Here is the first search.  How many times does the Mueller Report contain 3 or negatives in one sentence?  I also include negative words like false, deny, etc.  A double negatives undoes the negative and a triple negative reinstates it.  Anytime there are lots of negative words it is harder to parse because you want to make sure it is not a triple negative.  I find about 10 occurrences.

1. A statement that the investigation did not establish particular facts does not mean there was no evidence of those facts.

2. Cohen was concerned that Russian officials were not actually involved or were not interested in meeting with him (as Sater had alleged), and so he decided not to go to the Forum.

3. As noted above , the woman he [Papadopoulos] met was not Putin's niece, he had not met the Russian Ambassador in London, and the Ambassador did not also serve as Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister

4. According to McGahn , Boente responded that he did not want to issue a statement about the President not being under investigation because of the potential political ramifications and did not want to order Corney to do it because that action could prompt the appointment of a Special Counsel.

5. He did not want to meet at the Department of Justice because he did not want a public log of his visit and did not want Sessions to have an advantage over him by meeting on what Lewandowski described as Sessions's turf.

6. That evidence indicates that by the time of the Oval Office meeting the President was aware that McGahn did not think the story was false and did not want to issue a statement or create a written record denying facts that McGahn believed to be true .

7. According to Cohen, the President's personal counsel-who did not have first-hand knowledge of the project responded by saying that there was no need to muddy the water, that it was unnecessary to include those details because the project did not take place, and that Cohen should keep his statement short and tight, not elaborate, stay on message, and not contradict the President.

8. See Pittston Coal Group v. Sebben, 488 U.S. 105, 115 (1988) ("[l]t is not the law that a statute can have no effects which are not explicitly mentioned in its legislative history. "); see also Encino Motorcars, LLC v. Navarro, 138 S. Ct. 1134, 1143 (20 18) ("Even if Congress did not foresee all of the applications of the statute, that is no reason not to give the statutory text a fair reading.").

9. The "separation of powers does not mean ," however, "that the branches 'ought to have no partial agency in, or no control over the acts of each other."'

10. Just as the Speech or Debate Clause , U.S. CONST.ART. I, § 6, cl. I, absolutely protects legislative acts, but not a legislator 's "taking or agreeing to take money for a promise to act in a certain way ... for it is taking the bribe , not performance of the illicit compact , that is a criminal act," United States v. Brewster, 408 U .S. 501, 526 (1972) ( emphasis omitted) , the promise of a pardon to corruptly influence testimony would not be a constitutionally immunized act.

11. Accordingly, the Office concluded that the evidence was insufficient to prove that Sessions was willfully untruthful in his answers and thus insufficient to obtain or sustain a conviction for perjury or false statements.

Yates said that the public statements made by the Vice President denying that Flynn and Kislyak discussed sanctions were not true and put Flynn in a potentially compromised position because the Russians would know he had lied.

Yet another list of April events

Source: http://themillenniumreport.com/2019/04/notre-dame-conflagration-gladio-strikes-at-the-heart-of-paris/
I have most of these but not all of them.

Wolfgang Halbig is a nut

That's what the guy making this video is saying. Because once someone is a nut, then you don't have to answer any of their uncomfortable questions.  Put him in a mental institution while you are at it.  Problem solved.  And example to anyone else who dares to challenge the established narrative.

The Sandy Hook smoking gun

First of all, you really shouldn't watch this video.  YouTube put a warning label on it, because you aren't allowed to think for yourself.

But if you do, Wolfgang Halbig points out that food was delivered from September to December 2012 to Sandy Hook Elementary at the following address:  375 Fan Hill Rd, Chalk Hill School, Monroe CT 06468.

Sandy Hook is back

There is plenty of things to think about and talk about, so why is Sandy Hook in the news now?  I don't know, but there is something weird going on.

1.  Jeremy Richman, father of Sandy Hook victim Avielle Richman, died on March 25, 2019 of an apparent suicide.  Just previous to this, two Parkland survivors committed suicide.  Alex Jones promptly speculated that Jeremy Richman was murdered.

2.  InfoWars just today (April 18) posted a page with a video entitled "NY Times Releases Bizarre Sandy Hook 2nd Shooter Story".  The video wasn't posted on YouTube.  (A quick search of the news doesn't reveal any story recently published by NY Times about a 2nd shooter).  The video starts with a news clip of a man talking about the police arresting someone in the woods wearing camo. I can't find the link right now, but there is a video of Alex Jones' deposition where he is asked this very question and the lawyer is trying to get Jones to say that he made up the story about the 2nd shooter.  Alex Jones may indeed by a liar, but on this point he was telling the truth.

Alex Jones in the video has another conspiracy theory, no surprise there, that he is being attacked by liberals mad that AG William Barr deflated their expectations with his report.  They are mad and Alex Jones is a convenient target.

3. NY Times did publish an article on April 17, entitled "Alex Jones Under Oath Is an Antidote to a 'Post-Truth' Age". This may be the link I was thinking of.

4. Meanwhile, an article was published just today (April 18) entitled "Sandy Hook parents ask court to reinstate lawsuit against Newtown".  This was about a Connecticut lawsuit dismissed 11 months ago where some parents sued the teachers for not doing more to stop Sandy Hook.  A commenter says: "---Neil Heslin and Scarlett Lewis, parents of slain Sandy Hook first-grader Jesse Lewis, who sued Newtown and the Newtown Board of Education.---- Neil Heslin is a drunk.....a fraud.....bounces checks.....and a conman......and he was such a bad father that his son was adopted when his ex-wife remarried, and they changed his name to Jesse Lewis....... Now Neil Heslin is looking for some free cash to pay for his living expenses because he needs the cash !!!".

5. There is another Sandy Hook lawsuit pending against gun-maker Remington.  Remington is appealing to the US Supreme Court claiming that they are shielded from liability under federal law.

6. Dianne Feinstein just today (April 18) wrote an op-ed in the NY Post linking Sandy Hook to Columbine and other tragedies as a reason to ban guns.  She mentioned that "As Saturday’s 20th anniversary of the Columbine shooting approaches …".  Thanks to DiFi, Sandy Hook is now associated with the April Curse.

The April Curse comes back with a vengeance

I started researching the April Curse about 10 years ago and found so many instances that I freaked out and tried to ignore it in hopes I was mistaken or it would go away.  Unfortunately, it is back.

April 15, 2019 - Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris is on fire causing extensive damage.

April 17, 2019 - Sol Pais, the 18-year-old Florida woman who FBI officials said was “infatuated with Columbine” and whose presence in Colorado triggered hundreds of schools to close, was found dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound off of a trail at the base of Mount Evans, Clear Creek County Sheriff Rick Albers said. https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/17/sol-pais-columbine-woman-dead/

April 20, 2019 - 20th anniversary of the Columbine shooting massacre.

April 16, 2019.  Florida Today writes an article about the April Curse. The cruelest week: These 13 historic tragedies happened during the week of April 15.  The 13 events it mentioned are:
1. The Lincoln Assassination: April 15, 1865
2. The San Francisco Earthquake: April 18, 1906
3. The Sinking of the Titanic: April 15, 1912
4. The Ludlow Massacre: April 20, 1914
5. The Hillsborough Disaster: April 15, 1989
6. The Waco Siege ends: April 19, 1993
7. The Oklahoma City Bombing: April 19, 1995
8. The Columbine High School Massacre: April 20, 1999
9. The Virginia Tech Shooting: April 16, 2007
10. The Deepwater Horizon Disaster: April 20, 2010
11. The Boston Marathon Bombing: April 15, 2013
12. The West Fertilizer Company Explosion: April 17, 2013
13. The Notre Dame Cathedral Fire: April 15, 2019

April 15, 2019.  SF Gate writes an article about the April Curse. The events is mentioned are:

1. The Donner Party Begins Its Trek - April 14, 1846
2. Lincoln Assassinated - April 14, 1865
3. Black Sunday - April 14, 1935 (dust storm in Texas and Oklahoma)
4. The Black Hawk Incident in Iraq - April 14, 1994 
5. Titanic Sinks - April 15, 1912 
6. The Great Mississippi Flood - April 15, 1927
7. Boston Marathon Bombing - April 15, 2013
8. Texas City Explosion - April 16, 1947
9. Virginia Tech Shooting - April 16, 2007
10. Bay of Pigs Invasion - April 17, 1961
11. West Plant Explosion in Texas - April 17, 2013
12. The British Invade - April 18, 1775
13. San Francisco Earthquake - April 18, 1906
14. U.S. Embassy Bombing in Beirut - April 18, 1983
15. USS Iowa Explosion - April 19, 1989
16. The Waco Seige - April 19, 1993
17. The Oklahoma City Bombing - April 19, 1995
18. The Ludlow Massacre - April 20, 1914
19. The Columbine School Shooting - April 20, 1999
20. Deepwater Horizons (BP) Oil Spill - April 20, 2010

It mentions some positive events as well:

• April 14: The first abolition society is formed (1775); the first commercial movie house opens in New York City (1894); "The Grapes of Wrath" is published (1939); the Human Genome Project is completed (2003). 
• April 15: The preliminary articles of peace ending the American Revolutionary War are ratified 1783); Jackie Robinson breaks the color barrier in Major League Baseball (1947); McDonald's opens its first franchised restaurant (1955); the Ford Mustang debuts (1964). 
• April 16: Boston Garden, America's oldest hockey arena, opens (1910). 
• April 17: George Lucas begins writing "Star Wars" (1973). 
• April 18: Paul Revere takes his midnight ride (1775); Yankee Stadium opens in New York (1923). 
• April 19: Americans earn their first Revolutionary War victory over the British at the Battle of Lexington and Concord (1775); "The Simpsons" premieres on as a cartoon short on "The Tracey Ullman Show" (1987). 
• April 20: The Civil Rights Act of 1871 becomes law (1871).

Note that the Civil Rights Act of 1871 was passed to fight the Ku Klux Klan.  Oh, don't forget that April 20, 1889 was the birthday of Adolf.

I've written extensively on this in the past and don't care to revisit the subject.  I hope the April Curse is done this year.
 ================
Update: Recent events that may or may not be considered part of the April Curse.
April 21, 2016 - Death of Prince Rogers Nelson
April 19, 2017 - Former New England Patriots player Aaron Hernandez, acquitted of a 2012 double murder but serving a life sentence for a 2013 murder, is found hanged in his prison cell, and is pronounced dead an hour later.
April 19, 2018 - Miguel Diaz-Canel became president of Cuba.  He was born on April 20, 1960
April 19, 2018 - Walter Leroy Moody Jr. was executed in Alabama for the 1989 letter bomb murder of Robert Vance, a US federal judge.

Update 2:
April 17, 2019 - Alan Garcia, ex-president of Peru, dies from self-inflicted gunshot wound as police were preparing to arrest him.

Update 3:  Maybe other recent events fit this as well.
April 11, 2019 - Julian Assange was expelled from the Ecudorian embassy and arrested.  He hadn't left the embassy since 2012.
April 18, 2019 - Attorney General William Barr releases a heavily redacted version of the Mueller report.
April 21, 2019 - Easter Sunday (varies from year to year)

Update 4:
April 18, 2019 - a man was arrested for bringing gas cans and lighter fluid into St Patrick's Cathedral in NYC.

Update 5:
April 27, 2019 - A 19-year old gunman attacked a synagogue in Poway, California, killing one woman.  He left a manifesto saying that he was called to action by Brenton Tarrant's attack on a mosque on March 15, 2019 in Christchurch, New Zealand, thus linking it to the April Curse as well.

Update 6:
April 21, 2019 - 3 Christian churches and 3 luxury hotels were attacked by terrorists in Colombo, Sri Lanka, killing 253 people

Update 7:
April 20, 2019 - SpaceX launches a rocket from Cape Canaveral which exploded after liftoff.

Update 8:
April 20, 1920.  John Paul Stevens, Supreme Court Justice, was born.

Update 9:
April 19, 2015.  Freddie Gray, who was severely injured while in police custody in Baltimore, dies, causing massive protests.

Debunking Gloom-and-Doom

I have done way more than my share of gloom-and-doom myself, and I realize that I am being too pessimistic.  So when I see other people do the same thing, I can debunk some of their arguments.

Read: Tax Day trauma: Paying for our massive national debt.

Claim:  At the rate the national debt is rising, interest payments — the fastest growing part of the federal budget — will be bigger than Medicaid by next year and the military by 2025. 

This one is true. Interest payments at ($460B) will be bigger than Medicaid ($420B) by 2020.  Interest payments in 2025 will be $724B and Defense will be $706B.

Claim:  The highest our debt has ever been was just after World War II at 106 percent of the size of the economy (GDP). It quickly fell in the years that followed as war costs subsided, the economy boomed, and the budget was near balance. Today, the debt is 78 percent of GDP, almost double what it was just before the Great Recession. It will pass the World War II-high in as soon as 10 years.

False.  Debt held by the public is what matters, not the national debt, because the national debt includes bookkeeping games to make sure Social Security is paid.  Debt held by the public will not exceed 106%  until 2037 not 2029.  Note that this depends on assumptions about how fast GDP is rising.  I am assuming a 4% nominal increase, which includes inflation.  If you use a lower increase then it is possible this would be reached earlier.  But the article didn't disclose their assumptions.

Claim:  If you look 50 years out, the numbers are incomprehensible. Debt would be over twice as large as the economy even if Congress didn’t do anything to make it worse, and three times as large if they extend current policies. 

False.  The numbers are not incomprehensible any more than today's numbers are incomprehensible.  50 years from now is 2049, when the debt will be 141% of GDP, not over twice as large.  This is assuming current policies.  Yes it is bad, but don't exaggerate.

Claim: The first step in addressing the debt is acknowledging it. The second is to stop adding to it. Only then can we come up with a plan to put it on a downward path back to responsible levels in a way that has the least impact on people’s lives.

True, I strongly agree with the conclusion.

Everything is awesome again

Update:
Gerald Celente says there won't be a recession soon. We sent out a Trend Alert, and here’s what we said, ‘Trump bump and no recession.”  We are also saying not only are they not going to raise rates, but they are going to be lowering interest rates. That is the Trump card that the other countries don’t have. . . . They can’t lower them in Europe. They have negative interest rates. . . . Everybody is in a box except America.”

Update 2:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254532-3-best-arguments-contra-economic-slowdown
The 3 arguments are:
1. The decline in interest rates since November
2. The rebound in the stock market
3. The new low in initial jobless claims

Jamie Dimon is very optimistic

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase

 

This is NOT Jamie Dimon. This is a video talking about how great Jamie Dimon is.

Jamie Dimon just said that the US economic expansion could go on for years. “It could go on for years,” he added. “There’s no law that says it has to stop. We do make lists, and look at all the other things: geopolitical issues, lower liquidity. There may be a confluence of events that somehow causes a recession, but it may not be in 2019, 2020, 2021.” Yea, the recession is cancelled!

There are lots of videos on Youtube showing him being attacked by female Democrats and others by talking heads at CNBC discussing what he said, but I am having trouble finding any that actually let him talk. This is the best one I have found yet, after just a minute of searching. Jump to 2:30 and then 11:45.

America has the best hand ever dealt to any country ever. We have wonderful neighbors in Canada and Mexico.  We have barriers in the Atlantic and Pacific. We have all the food water and energy we will ever need. We have the best military on the planet and we will as long as we have the best economy.  We have the best universities on the planet. We have a rule of law. We have a magnificient work ethic, we have innovation. We have a productive workforce. We have the widest, deepest financial market the world has ever seen.  If you made a list of these things, it is extraordinary.  Yes we have problems but we have been shooting ourselves in the foot.

New Projection: We have until 2053

								Memo	Memo
				Debt		Debt %		Net	SS
Year	Revenues	Outlays	Deficit	Public	GDP	of GDP		Interest	Outlays
2018	3,329	4,108	-779	15,751	20,236	77.8%		325	982
2019	3,515	4,416	-901	16,636	21,252	78.3%		383	1,039
2020	3,686	4,604	-918	17,601	22,120	79.6%		465	1,102
2021	3,841	4,830	-989	18,626	22,939	81.2%		528	1,171
2022	4,012	5,061	-1,049	19,795	23,778	83.2%		571	1,245
2023	4,208	5,329	-1,121	20,976	24,672	85.0%		641	1,323
2024	4,448	5,577	-1,129	22,112	25,642	86.2%		692	1,403
2025	4,647	5,835	-1,188	23,300	26,656	87.4%		720	1,487
2026	4,956	6,156	-1,200	24,500	27,667	88.6%		775	1,574
2027	5,254	6,468	-1,214	25,714	28,738	89.5%		833	1,664
2028	5,447	6,778	-1,331	27,044	29,862	90.6%		866	1,759
2029	5,672	7,095	-1,423	28,467	31,006	91.8%		930	1,856
2030	5,804	7,453	-1,649	30,116	32,246	93.4%		930	1,977
2031	6,036	7,813	-1,776	31,892	33,536	95.1%		985	2,066
2032	6,278	8,199	-1,921	33,813	34,878	96.9%		1,049	2,162
2033	6,529	8,599	-2,070	35,883	36,273	98.9%		1,119	2,256
2034	6,790	9,023	-2,232	38,115	37,724	101.0%		1,195	2,358
2035	7,062	9,473	-2,411	40,526	39,232	103.3%		1,277	2,468
2036	7,344	9,930	-2,586	43,112	40,802	105.7%		1,366	2,566
2037	7,638	10,432	-2,794	45,906	42,434	108.2%		1,461	2,690
2038	7,944	10,943	-3,000	48,905	44,131	110.8%		1,565	2,802
2039	8,261	11,486	-3,224	52,129	45,896	113.6%		1,677	2,924
2040	8,592	11,999	-3,407	55,537	47,732	116.3%		1,798	3,041
2041	8,935	12,536	-3,600	59,137	49,642	119.1%		1,927	3,162
2042	9,293	13,097	-3,804	62,940	51,627	121.9%		2,064	3,289
2043	9,665	13,672	-4,007	66,947	53,692	124.7%		2,203	3,415
2044	10,051	14,282	-4,231	71,178	55,840	127.5%		2,343	3,563
2045	10,453	14,902	-4,448	75,626	58,074	130.2%		2,491	3,699
2046	10,871	15,530	-4,658	80,284	60,397	132.9%		2,647	3,823
2047	11,306	16,220	-4,914	85,198	62,812	135.6%		2,810	3,989
2048	11,758	16,916	-5,157	90,356	65,325	138.3%		2,982	4,135
2049	12,229	17,647	-5,418	95,774	67,938	141.0%		3,162	4,294
2050	12,718	18,409	-5,691	101,464	70,655	143.6%		3,352	4,458
2051	13,227	19,181	-5,954	107,418	73,482	146.2%		3,551	4,607
2052	13,756	20,022	-6,266	113,685	76,421	148.8%		3,760	4,799
2053	14,306	20,868	-6,562	120,247	79,478	151.3%		3,979	4,967
2054	14,878	21,781	-6,903	127,150	82,657	153.8%		4,209	5,174
2055	15,473	22,709	-7,235	134,385	85,963	156.3%		4,450	5,364

This is based on the theory that there is no crisis in Medicare or Social Security.  Nothing will happen in 2026 or 2032. Just pay them as part of the general budget.  Social Security is 6.25% of GDP in 2053, and Medicare is 5.0% of GDP, and the interest rate is 3.5% that year.

The problem isn't any of these, except maybe interest. The problem is an imbalance of revenue and expenses. You can really see the problem start about 2033, where the deficit is $2 billion per year.  The deficit jumps above $3 trillion per year in 2038 (only 5 years later), and then $4 trillion in 2043, $5 trillion 2048, and $6 trillion in 2052.  So just increase revenue (taxes) and decrease expenses  before 2033 and we can fix it, right?

My previous projection showed a crisis in 2043, so this is 10 years later.

I've done lots of projections over the years, and this is the most optimistic yet.

The Church of Kanye at Coachella on Easter Sunday

Kanye West started his own church at the beginning of the year.  And it is being blessed with a miracle.

'Ya we were out in Palm Springs and they took us to a little campground,' he told a host of friends. 'We were thinking about a little performance in Palm Springs, just a little one.'  The Power musician sat near a microphone to relay the information among a sea of worshipers wearing white.

'Then they had a mountain ... he had a mountain waiting for us,' West said. 'We had a date waiting for us, only one date that that mountain would be available. Easter Sunday at Coachella.'  Kim could be heard cheering with the audience in the video before her husband continued, 'So the confirmation was confirmed last night that Sunday service will be at Easter Sunday at Coachella, 9 a.m.'