This is part of my series on eating at fast food restaurants on a diet.
Today I ate at McDonald's:
Double Cheeseburger (hold the bun). I should have ordered it without ketchup but I forgot. I ordered the Double Cheeseburger instead of the McDouble to get the extra slice of cheese. Their website make it easy to figure out calories without the bun. It had 288 calories, 20g fat, 20g protein, and 7g carbs. Cost $1.69.
Grilled Chicken Bacon Ranch Salad with vinaigrette. 330 calories, 14g fat, 42g protein, 9g carbs. The vinaigrette added 38 calories, 2g fat, 5g carbs. Cost $5.19.
Total: 656 calories, 36g fat, 62g protein, 21g carbs. Under my revised system, this is 56 points. Total cost $8.55, including large unsweetened ice tea.
Review: The service was good. I liked the bowl for the salad, very attractive. The meal was cheap and delicious and almost filling, everything you would expect from McDonald's. The bacon added a lot of flavor to the salad. The chicken seemed a little small to have 42 grams of protein. The only thing I might change would be to order the cheeseburger without ketchup, and to use my own olive oil dressing.
Ding-ding-ding. We have a winner! The value proposition is excellent. The salad was perfect, compared to the others which were either carb-heavy (Wendy's, Chick-fil-a) or too sparse (Burger King). I believe this could be eaten every day as part of a weight-loss diet.
There are still more restaurants to review. Let's see if any of them are better than Micky D's.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Monday, September 26, 2016
The Real Estate Bubble is Popping
In 2006, the real estate bubble popped. 10 years later it is popping again. Here are some markets:
Vancouver B.C.
Aspen
The Hamptons
Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market
Manhattan Condos
Miami
San Francisco - has not popped yet, but employment has peaked and thousands of new units are being built, putting pressure on the rental market
Houston Office Space
Houston New Apartments
Honolulu - has an apartment vacancy rate of 11%
And new home construction nationwide, except the West: "By region, sales fell the most in the Northeast, dropping 34.3 percent. Sales in the South were down 12.3 percent, and they fell 2.4 percent in the Midwest. The West was the only region of the country that saw a sales increase last month, a rise of 8 percent."
==============
More:
Seattle - rent prices dropped 13% in one month (Aug 2016 to Sept 2016), and the same report says that San Jose dropped 12%, LA dropped 8%, and Boston dropped 7%.
Vancouver B.C.
Aspen
The Hamptons
Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market
Manhattan Condos
Miami
San Francisco - has not popped yet, but employment has peaked and thousands of new units are being built, putting pressure on the rental market
Houston Office Space
Houston New Apartments
Honolulu - has an apartment vacancy rate of 11%
And new home construction nationwide, except the West: "By region, sales fell the most in the Northeast, dropping 34.3 percent. Sales in the South were down 12.3 percent, and they fell 2.4 percent in the Midwest. The West was the only region of the country that saw a sales increase last month, a rise of 8 percent."
==============
More:
Seattle - rent prices dropped 13% in one month (Aug 2016 to Sept 2016), and the same report says that San Jose dropped 12%, LA dropped 8%, and Boston dropped 7%.
Chick Fil-A on a Diet
This is part of a series on how to eat at fast food restaurants when you are on a diet.
Today I review Chick Fil-A. Here is the dinner:
Chick-Fil-A Sandwich, hold the cheese, hold the bun. I ordered the regular instead of the deluxe to reduce the price. I'm not worried about the cheese. 438 calories, 18g fat, 28g protein, 41g carb. The bread was nothing special, and I think there is carbs in the chicken, so I will count the bun at 25g carbs and 100 calories. I added mayo and hot sauce, but not counting those. Cost $3.29.
Spicy Southwest Salad, without tortilla strips, with chile lime vinaigrette. The salad is 435 calories, 19g fat, 34g protein, and 32g carbs. Removing the tortilla strips removes, 72 calories, 4g fat, 8g carbs and 1g protein. The Vinaigrette adds 63 calories, of which 3g are fat and 9g carb. Total: 426 calories, 18g fat, 33g protein, and 33g carbs. Cost $7.69.
Total: 764 calories, 36g fat, 61g protein, 49g carbs. Total with tax $11.91.
Review: Chick-Fil-A is very delicious as expected, and if we were judging only on taste it would dominate. The Chick-Fil-A sandwich is much higher in carbs then I was thinking, and so was the salad, which has corn and beans, and corn syrup, since I had the dressing, but it wouldn't taste the same without it. The salad also seemed a bit skimpy in the chicken area. I think the seeds must add protein. I would recommend switching to the grilled chicken, but that is a step up and now we would be comparing the premium grilled chicken sandwich at Wendy's etc.
Verdict: Sorry, this is a failure. The chicken sandwich, even without the bun, has way too many carbs. And the price is too high. Would I eat there again? Absolutely. But I wouldn't pretend that I was on a diet. The whole purpose of this experiment is to find a cheap protein source and eat a few carbs as well.
Today I review Chick Fil-A. Here is the dinner:
Chick-Fil-A Sandwich, hold the cheese, hold the bun. I ordered the regular instead of the deluxe to reduce the price. I'm not worried about the cheese. 438 calories, 18g fat, 28g protein, 41g carb. The bread was nothing special, and I think there is carbs in the chicken, so I will count the bun at 25g carbs and 100 calories. I added mayo and hot sauce, but not counting those. Cost $3.29.
Spicy Southwest Salad, without tortilla strips, with chile lime vinaigrette. The salad is 435 calories, 19g fat, 34g protein, and 32g carbs. Removing the tortilla strips removes, 72 calories, 4g fat, 8g carbs and 1g protein. The Vinaigrette adds 63 calories, of which 3g are fat and 9g carb. Total: 426 calories, 18g fat, 33g protein, and 33g carbs. Cost $7.69.
Total: 764 calories, 36g fat, 61g protein, 49g carbs. Total with tax $11.91.
Review: Chick-Fil-A is very delicious as expected, and if we were judging only on taste it would dominate. The Chick-Fil-A sandwich is much higher in carbs then I was thinking, and so was the salad, which has corn and beans, and corn syrup, since I had the dressing, but it wouldn't taste the same without it. The salad also seemed a bit skimpy in the chicken area. I think the seeds must add protein. I would recommend switching to the grilled chicken, but that is a step up and now we would be comparing the premium grilled chicken sandwich at Wendy's etc.
Verdict: Sorry, this is a failure. The chicken sandwich, even without the bun, has way too many carbs. And the price is too high. Would I eat there again? Absolutely. But I wouldn't pretend that I was on a diet. The whole purpose of this experiment is to find a cheap protein source and eat a few carbs as well.
The Keto-200 diet
The Keto-200 diet is one that I just invented. I am not a doctor or sports nutritionist, and am only going off of my limited personal knowledge and experience. It is a high-fat, medium protein, low carb diet. It is very simple, flexible, and should be effective for weight loss. It does involve a modified form of calorie counting.
Here is how it works. It uses a point system inspired by Weight Watchers. You get 200 points per day to "spend" on food. (You can try a lower point amount and it may work better, but this is what I am going with). To calculate points, add up the carbs in grams, subtract the fiber in grams and add the protein in grams. Ignore the fat content.
For example, I just ate a protein bar. The label says that it has 190 calories, 12g fat, 14g carbs, 5g fiber, and 10g protein. So this has 19 points (14g carbs - 5g fiber + 10g protein).
My theory is that for weight-loss purposes, carbs and protein are basically equivalent - they both raise insulin and they both have 4 calories per gram. And that eating fat does not make you fat. And, most controversial, and I have NO evidence to back this up, is my claim that, for weight-loss purposes, carbs, in limited amounts, are not harmful, and furthermore, too much protein causes weight gain. I believe that there should be no preference given to protein over carbs, and there is no reason to limit carbs, up to the point limit. So if you like carbs, eat carbs, and if you like protein, eat protein. But don't demonize carbs, and fat is your friend.
I will try it myself and provide further thoughts.
Disclaimer: Pregnant women, kids, and diabetics should not try this without checking with your doctor. It will not work for body-builders, who need more protein.
=================
Update: Protein does raise insulin, but not to the extent of carbs. I think a better number would be 1/4 the amount of protein grams, rounded up. And fat does have a minor effect, although much less than either of these. So maybe use 1/10 the amount of fat in grams, so there is some "cost" to fat.
So, maybe have a limit of 100 points, where a point is a gram of carbs, plus 1/4 the grams of proteins, rounded up, and 1/10 the grams of fat, rounded up. A 2000 calorie ketogenic diet composed of 75% fat by calories, 20% protein, and 5% carbs would have 166g of fat, 100g of protein, and 25g carbs. This would "cost" 67 points. That sounds about right to me.
Update 2: There is a school of thought that once enough carbs are consumed, (and this number is different for each person, but generally is in the range of 20g - 100g), that eating more fat will not cause you to go into ketotis. So just focus on the "antiketogenic" line, which says that protein is antiketogenic at 0.58. I think there should be some preference to protein, although not to the extent of ignoring it, so I will use 0.5 as a ratio, also for simplicity. So revised formula:
A = C + P/2 + F/10
where A is a "point" (meaning antiketogenic), C is net carbs in grams, P is protein in grams, and F is fat in grams.
Update 3: I think 120 "points" is a good maximum number for a day, so I am going to call this the Keto-120 diet. For target macros of 80g protein, 20g carbs, 120g fat, this would be 1,480 calories per day (using 72 points) which is a reasonable target for a diet. I personally believe that carbs don't have to be limited that much, so going to up 60g in carbs would make this 1,640 calories, still a reasonable target. Women should eat less and perhaps use 100 points as a target.
Here is how it works. It uses a point system inspired by Weight Watchers. You get 200 points per day to "spend" on food. (You can try a lower point amount and it may work better, but this is what I am going with). To calculate points, add up the carbs in grams, subtract the fiber in grams and add the protein in grams. Ignore the fat content.
For example, I just ate a protein bar. The label says that it has 190 calories, 12g fat, 14g carbs, 5g fiber, and 10g protein. So this has 19 points (14g carbs - 5g fiber + 10g protein).
My theory is that for weight-loss purposes, carbs and protein are basically equivalent - they both raise insulin and they both have 4 calories per gram. And that eating fat does not make you fat. And, most controversial, and I have NO evidence to back this up, is my claim that, for weight-loss purposes, carbs, in limited amounts, are not harmful, and furthermore, too much protein causes weight gain. I believe that there should be no preference given to protein over carbs, and there is no reason to limit carbs, up to the point limit. So if you like carbs, eat carbs, and if you like protein, eat protein. But don't demonize carbs, and fat is your friend.
I will try it myself and provide further thoughts.
Disclaimer: Pregnant women, kids, and diabetics should not try this without checking with your doctor. It will not work for body-builders, who need more protein.
=================
Update: Protein does raise insulin, but not to the extent of carbs. I think a better number would be 1/4 the amount of protein grams, rounded up. And fat does have a minor effect, although much less than either of these. So maybe use 1/10 the amount of fat in grams, so there is some "cost" to fat.
So, maybe have a limit of 100 points, where a point is a gram of carbs, plus 1/4 the grams of proteins, rounded up, and 1/10 the grams of fat, rounded up. A 2000 calorie ketogenic diet composed of 75% fat by calories, 20% protein, and 5% carbs would have 166g of fat, 100g of protein, and 25g carbs. This would "cost" 67 points. That sounds about right to me.
Update 2: There is a school of thought that once enough carbs are consumed, (and this number is different for each person, but generally is in the range of 20g - 100g), that eating more fat will not cause you to go into ketotis. So just focus on the "antiketogenic" line, which says that protein is antiketogenic at 0.58. I think there should be some preference to protein, although not to the extent of ignoring it, so I will use 0.5 as a ratio, also for simplicity. So revised formula:
A = C + P/2 + F/10
where A is a "point" (meaning antiketogenic), C is net carbs in grams, P is protein in grams, and F is fat in grams.
Update 3: I think 120 "points" is a good maximum number for a day, so I am going to call this the Keto-120 diet. For target macros of 80g protein, 20g carbs, 120g fat, this would be 1,480 calories per day (using 72 points) which is a reasonable target for a diet. I personally believe that carbs don't have to be limited that much, so going to up 60g in carbs would make this 1,640 calories, still a reasonable target. Women should eat less and perhaps use 100 points as a target.
Stock Market Crash this week expected
I would be very happy to be wrong, but I expect a stock market crash of at least 5% this week, probably more, (possibly including panic selling blood-in-the-streets type of stuff) for multiple reasons, some of which I have explained before. If nothing happens by October 4, I will happily eat crow. So let's watch this train wreck in action, shall we? I will update this entry for the next week. These are closing entries.
Thursday, Sept. 22. Dow 18392. S+P 2177
Friday, Sept. 23. Dow 18261 (down 131). S+P 2165 (down 12).
Updates:
Monday, Sept 26. Dow 18095 (down 166). S+P 2146 (down 21).
Tuesday, Sept 27, Dow 18228 (up 133). S+P 2160 (up 14).
Wednesday, Sept 28, Dow 18339 (up 111). S+P 2171 (up 11). This is almost back to where it was last Thursday.
Thursday, Sept 29, Dow 18143 (down 196), S+P 2151 (down 20).
Thursday, Sept. 22. Dow 18392. S+P 2177
Friday, Sept. 23. Dow 18261 (down 131). S+P 2165 (down 12).
Updates:
Monday, Sept 26. Dow 18095 (down 166). S+P 2146 (down 21).
Tuesday, Sept 27, Dow 18228 (up 133). S+P 2160 (up 14).
Wednesday, Sept 28, Dow 18339 (up 111). S+P 2171 (up 11). This is almost back to where it was last Thursday.
Thursday, Sept 29, Dow 18143 (down 196), S+P 2151 (down 20).
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Burger King on a diet
This is part of a series on how to eat at fast food restaurants when you are on a diet.
Today I review Burger King. Here is the dinner:
Double Cheeseburger, hold the ketchup, hold the bun: 350 calories, 18g fat, 20g protein, 27g carb. It was very bready, so I think taking off the bun saves 25g carbs and 100 calories. So call it 250 calories. Cost $1.69.
Bacon Cheddar Ranch Chicken Salad,with grilled chicken, hold the dressing, hold the croutons: 334 calories, 14g fat, 36g protein, 16g carbs . I added my own olive oil, and added salami slices, but I am ignoring that in the calorie count. Cost $5.49.
Total: 584 calories, 32g fat, 56g protein, 18g carbs. This is 49 points. Cost with tax $7.75.
Review: The cheeseburger was very tasty, and had the whopper taste, although it was very small without the bread. Much smaller than the Wendy's Double Stack. I think maybe a Double Stacker would be a better comparison, but that is $2.49, and I am trying to compare hamburgers under $2.00. The grilled chicken was good and warm but the rest of the salad was blah, with just lettuce, a couple of tomato slices and a little cheese. I think most people would use ranch dressing on it, which would add a couple of hundred calories, but I am too smart for that. The service was very slow, even though the restaurant wasn't that busy and I recommend going through the drive-thru which takes priority. There are a ton of menu items, and these are obviously the ugly step-children.
Would I do it again? No, unless I didn't have an option nearby. The service was so slow. Like I said the cheeseburger was very tasty, but it was tiny. The value proposition is just not there. The salad was just basic, but on the plus side it didn't have any extra carbs to trigger my sugar-loving tastebuds. I felt like a hacker, choosing lesser known items and modifying them. Still the meal was filling and it fit within my macros. It is fast food, it was on my diet, and it was tasty. But other options are better.
Today I review Burger King. Here is the dinner:
Double Cheeseburger, hold the ketchup, hold the bun: 350 calories, 18g fat, 20g protein, 27g carb. It was very bready, so I think taking off the bun saves 25g carbs and 100 calories. So call it 250 calories. Cost $1.69.
Bacon Cheddar Ranch Chicken Salad,with grilled chicken, hold the dressing, hold the croutons: 334 calories, 14g fat, 36g protein, 16g carbs . I added my own olive oil, and added salami slices, but I am ignoring that in the calorie count. Cost $5.49.
Total: 584 calories, 32g fat, 56g protein, 18g carbs. This is 49 points. Cost with tax $7.75.
Review: The cheeseburger was very tasty, and had the whopper taste, although it was very small without the bread. Much smaller than the Wendy's Double Stack. I think maybe a Double Stacker would be a better comparison, but that is $2.49, and I am trying to compare hamburgers under $2.00. The grilled chicken was good and warm but the rest of the salad was blah, with just lettuce, a couple of tomato slices and a little cheese. I think most people would use ranch dressing on it, which would add a couple of hundred calories, but I am too smart for that. The service was very slow, even though the restaurant wasn't that busy and I recommend going through the drive-thru which takes priority. There are a ton of menu items, and these are obviously the ugly step-children.
Would I do it again? No, unless I didn't have an option nearby. The service was so slow. Like I said the cheeseburger was very tasty, but it was tiny. The value proposition is just not there. The salad was just basic, but on the plus side it didn't have any extra carbs to trigger my sugar-loving tastebuds. I felt like a hacker, choosing lesser known items and modifying them. Still the meal was filling and it fit within my macros. It is fast food, it was on my diet, and it was tasty. But other options are better.
Comparison of Low Carb Diets, First Phase
Atkins. (Induction phase). Under 20 grams of carbs per day for 2 weeks. Eat high-fat, high-protein, with low-carb vegetables like leafy greens. This kick-starts the weight loss.
Comment: This diet claims that you can eat as much protein and fat as you want on the first phase. And that eating low carb will naturally put you in ketosis. In my opinion, this will not work. Instead, you should get into ketosis first by fasting, and then start the diet. And limit the total calories consumed to below TDEE. I think it is deceptive the way it is described.
Dukan. (Attack phase). Eat unlimited lean meat, cottage cheese and eggs. Supplement with 1.5 teaspoons of oat bran. The phase can last up to 7 days.
Comment: I think you need to eat more fat to get into ketosis. Also I think you should limit the total calories, although it takes a lot of lean meat to meet the calories requirements.
South Beach Diet (Phase 1). I would call this a medium protein, medium fat, medium carb diet. It only allows certain kinds of lean meat, (for example, no beef jerky or bacon), and it discourages saturated fat, so it allows only low fat cheese. It does not limit carbs, but allows only some, (for example, no potatoes). It does have recommended serving sizes, but allows for more food if needed. Phase 1 lasts 14 days.
Comment: This seems kind of like the Dukan diet, with its emphasis on lean meat, although it allows more veggies on phase 1, and doesn't require the oat bran.
Banting by Prof. Tim Noakes. This is a high-fat, medium protein, low carb diet. It is lower protein than Atkins. Excludes fruit. Foods are divided into the Green List (proteins and fat, all you can eat), Orange List (fruits and some vegetables, limit the amount you eat to 50g per day), and Red List (high carb foods like bread and potatoes, totally avoid). It doesn't have phases.
Comment: I still think you have to look at calories, and I don't see bread and potatoes as that harmful in limited quantities.
Harcombe (Phase 1). Eat unlimited amounts of meat, fish, some vegetables, and some grains. Avoid cheese and try to limit saturated fat. Last up to 5 days.
Comment: Similar to above. I don't see the need to avoid saturated fat. 5 days isn't long enough to do anything.
Paleo. It is high in fat, moderate in protein and low in carbs. Says to eat "good amounts" of animal protein. Recommends coconut oil, butter and olive oil. Allows some fruits and nuts. Excludes all grains and dairy, except for butter and cream. It doesn't have phases, it is a lifestyle.
Comment: The whole premise of the diet is faulty, since this is not what paleolithic man ate. It is not bad, although I don't see the need to totally avoid bread and cheese, especially on later phases, which this doesn't have.
Maker's Diet (Phase 1). Certain kinds of organic meat, fish, poultry, eggs. No mention of amount to eat. The only dairy allowed is goat and sheep cheese, and goat milk yogurt. No bread or grains. Lasts two weeks.
Comment: It seems like this is primarily spiritual. I find it kind of weird that it limits the food to organic, which are more expensive.
Eat Fat Get Thin. This is a 21 day plan of only high-quality fat, 4 to 6 ounces of protein for each meal, and non-starchy vegetables. Encourages vegetables with a lot of fiber, like broccoli, asparagus, and green beans.
Comment: Sounds good, although lighten up on the veggies, dude.
Conclusion: All of these are low carb diets and should result in weight loss, if the quantities eaten are limited. I see minor problems with all of them, but we have a clear winner.
The Eat Fat Get Thin diet by Dr. Mark Hyman is the clear winner of the ones that I reviewed. I like the time-frame (21 days is the perfect amount for a diet), and I like the fact that it limits protein. I also like the Daniel Plan diet, which is similar. I may try one of these two sometime.
Comment: This diet claims that you can eat as much protein and fat as you want on the first phase. And that eating low carb will naturally put you in ketosis. In my opinion, this will not work. Instead, you should get into ketosis first by fasting, and then start the diet. And limit the total calories consumed to below TDEE. I think it is deceptive the way it is described.
Dukan. (Attack phase). Eat unlimited lean meat, cottage cheese and eggs. Supplement with 1.5 teaspoons of oat bran. The phase can last up to 7 days.
Comment: I think you need to eat more fat to get into ketosis. Also I think you should limit the total calories, although it takes a lot of lean meat to meet the calories requirements.
South Beach Diet (Phase 1). I would call this a medium protein, medium fat, medium carb diet. It only allows certain kinds of lean meat, (for example, no beef jerky or bacon), and it discourages saturated fat, so it allows only low fat cheese. It does not limit carbs, but allows only some, (for example, no potatoes). It does have recommended serving sizes, but allows for more food if needed. Phase 1 lasts 14 days.
Comment: This seems kind of like the Dukan diet, with its emphasis on lean meat, although it allows more veggies on phase 1, and doesn't require the oat bran.
Banting by Prof. Tim Noakes. This is a high-fat, medium protein, low carb diet. It is lower protein than Atkins. Excludes fruit. Foods are divided into the Green List (proteins and fat, all you can eat), Orange List (fruits and some vegetables, limit the amount you eat to 50g per day), and Red List (high carb foods like bread and potatoes, totally avoid). It doesn't have phases.
Comment: I still think you have to look at calories, and I don't see bread and potatoes as that harmful in limited quantities.
Harcombe (Phase 1). Eat unlimited amounts of meat, fish, some vegetables, and some grains. Avoid cheese and try to limit saturated fat. Last up to 5 days.
Comment: Similar to above. I don't see the need to avoid saturated fat. 5 days isn't long enough to do anything.
Paleo. It is high in fat, moderate in protein and low in carbs. Says to eat "good amounts" of animal protein. Recommends coconut oil, butter and olive oil. Allows some fruits and nuts. Excludes all grains and dairy, except for butter and cream. It doesn't have phases, it is a lifestyle.
Comment: The whole premise of the diet is faulty, since this is not what paleolithic man ate. It is not bad, although I don't see the need to totally avoid bread and cheese, especially on later phases, which this doesn't have.
Maker's Diet (Phase 1). Certain kinds of organic meat, fish, poultry, eggs. No mention of amount to eat. The only dairy allowed is goat and sheep cheese, and goat milk yogurt. No bread or grains. Lasts two weeks.
Comment: It seems like this is primarily spiritual. I find it kind of weird that it limits the food to organic, which are more expensive.
Eat Fat Get Thin. This is a 21 day plan of only high-quality fat, 4 to 6 ounces of protein for each meal, and non-starchy vegetables. Encourages vegetables with a lot of fiber, like broccoli, asparagus, and green beans.
Comment: Sounds good, although lighten up on the veggies, dude.
Conclusion: All of these are low carb diets and should result in weight loss, if the quantities eaten are limited. I see minor problems with all of them, but we have a clear winner.
The Eat Fat Get Thin diet by Dr. Mark Hyman is the clear winner of the ones that I reviewed. I like the time-frame (21 days is the perfect amount for a diet), and I like the fact that it limits protein. I also like the Daniel Plan diet, which is similar. I may try one of these two sometime.
Friday, September 23, 2016
Presidential Cycle Septembers
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-23/state-street-move-over-zero-hedge-there-new-bear-town
Supposedly, this came from Bloomberg, but I can't find the original. I don't know what the numbers mean on the right and left hand sides (percents, percentiles, indexes?). It appears that they are predicting an IMMINENT (within one week) stock market crash (at least 5%). We will know very soon.
Quote: "risk assets should get destroyed next week" (statement as of 9/23/16).
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Government Shutdown October 1
A behind-the-scenes congressional battle to avoid a U.S. government shutdown broke into public view on Thursday when Republicans produced a stop-gap funding bill that Democrats immediately rejected.
The federal fiscal year ends on Sept. 30 and Congress must pass a spending measure by then to keep the government open.
--http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-funding-idUSKCN11S2DF
I have believed for months that there may be a stock market crash or some kind of economic crisis on September 30. However, I personally believed that the odds of that were fairly low, maybe 10%. Now I believe that the odds are 50%. We will know very soon.
--http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-funding-idUSKCN11S2DF
I have believed for months that there may be a stock market crash or some kind of economic crisis on September 30. However, I personally believed that the odds of that were fairly low, maybe 10%. Now I believe that the odds are 50%. We will know very soon.
Double Cheeseburger and Chicken Salad for dinner
I think that a small double cheeseburger and premium salad at a fast food restaurant is the perfect dinner.
Here is what you get at Wendy's:
Double Stack (hold the bun): 390 calories, 21g fat, 25g protein, 25g carbs. No ketchup. Taking off the bun saves about 20g of carbs/80 calories, so call it 310 calories. Cost $1.89.
Power Mediterranean Chick Salad: 450 calories, 15g fat, 40g protein, 42g carbs. No croutons, no dressing. The Balsamic Light Vinaigrette dressing has 6g of carbs from high fructose corn syrup, so don't use it. It is unclear if the calorie count includes the dressing. Cost $6.69.
Total: 760 calories, 36g fat, 65g protein, 47g carbs. Cost with tax $9.27.
Verdict: delicious and filling, although I am triggered by the carbs and that makes me still hungry. Would do again.
Next up: McDonald's, Burger King, Chick-fil-a, Subway, Carl's Jr., Sonic, Good Times, Jack in the Box, Smashburger, Noodles & Co.
Update: I have changed my mind. The salad has too many carbs, even without the dressing. This is not a good choice for a diet. All of their salads have the same problem, even the side salads. I guess you could take off the crouton and not have the dressing. But then we would have to recompare all the other restaurants side salads.
Here is what you get at Wendy's:
Double Stack (hold the bun): 390 calories, 21g fat, 25g protein, 25g carbs. No ketchup. Taking off the bun saves about 20g of carbs/80 calories, so call it 310 calories. Cost $1.89.
Power Mediterranean Chick Salad: 450 calories, 15g fat, 40g protein, 42g carbs. No croutons, no dressing. The Balsamic Light Vinaigrette dressing has 6g of carbs from high fructose corn syrup, so don't use it. It is unclear if the calorie count includes the dressing. Cost $6.69.
Total: 760 calories, 36g fat, 65g protein, 47g carbs. Cost with tax $9.27.
Verdict: delicious and filling, although I am triggered by the carbs and that makes me still hungry. Would do again.
Next up: McDonald's, Burger King, Chick-fil-a, Subway, Carl's Jr., Sonic, Good Times, Jack in the Box, Smashburger, Noodles & Co.
Update: I have changed my mind. The salad has too many carbs, even without the dressing. This is not a good choice for a diet. All of their salads have the same problem, even the side salads. I guess you could take off the crouton and not have the dressing. But then we would have to recompare all the other restaurants side salads.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Have intragovernmental holdings peaked?
Source: http://treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current
Check this out. Intergovernmental Holdings peaked on 6/30/2016 at $5.448 trillion. They have never been as high since. So this might be their all-time high.
What does this mean? This includes the Social Security trust fund and it means that Social Security is running at a current deficit now. The intergovernmental holdings (IH) increases with FICA taxes paid in and interest accrued on the national debt, and it decreases with benefits paid out. So more benefits are being paid out than taxes and interest are being paid in. So the Social Security bubble, that goes all the way back to FDR, just popped a couple of months ago.
We knew that it was a Ponzi scheme, but we expected it to last a few years longer. Of course, it isn't going down that much, and the current receipients have nothing to worry about, but in 20 years or so (2034 is the latest estimate), the SS trust fund will be totally depleted and benefits will be cut about 20%. Unless Congress does something, which it probably will.
I'm more concerned about the effect this will have on Debt Held By the Public (DHBTP). The intergovernmental holdings was used to partially finance the national debt. Now this goes into reverse. Instead DHBTP will go up even faster than the federal deficit, to make up for the IH drawdown. Indeed, since the peak on 6/30/16, the DHBTP has gone up $201 billion (from $13.932 T to $14.133 T). That is getting close to $100 billion per month and economy is supposedly doing well. Just wait until the next recession starts and the debt will skyrocket again.
Related thought. When was the last month in which the DHBTP did not increase at least $100 billion? That would be July 2016, when it only increased $66 billion. Maybe September 2016 will break the pattern. But the day is coming, and it may not be too far away, when the debt increases at least that amount every single month into infinity.
Proposed Subway Diet
It is very hard to do a diet at Subway, because they have so much bread and because of the discount for getting a footlong. And because their salads are so bad and overpriced. (Note that I consider that a footlong to be the equivalent to 4 slices of bread). But here is an attempt:
Breakfast: Either skip and just have a slice of bread with protein and cheese, or have a footlong egg and cheese and throw away 3/4ths of the bread (or save it for later). (Footlong with 1/4 bread is about 600 calories).
Lunch: order a 6-inch from the fresh-fit menu and eat only 1/2 the bread (Fresh fit, six inch with 1/2 bread is about 250 calories). Or if you had a small breakfast, have a footlong and throw away 3/4ths of the bread. No chips.
Snack: Eat some bread that you saved from before.
Dinner: Order a footlong and only eat 1/4 the bread. Don't order the tuna, because it has way too much mayo in it. Add chips and a diet soda.
After-dinner treat: more bread (sorry that's what you get if you choose this). Or maybe a cookie instead.
I would be willing to try it and see if it works.
Breakfast: Either skip and just have a slice of bread with protein and cheese, or have a footlong egg and cheese and throw away 3/4ths of the bread (or save it for later). (Footlong with 1/4 bread is about 600 calories).
Lunch: order a 6-inch from the fresh-fit menu and eat only 1/2 the bread (Fresh fit, six inch with 1/2 bread is about 250 calories). Or if you had a small breakfast, have a footlong and throw away 3/4ths of the bread. No chips.
Snack: Eat some bread that you saved from before.
Dinner: Order a footlong and only eat 1/4 the bread. Don't order the tuna, because it has way too much mayo in it. Add chips and a diet soda.
After-dinner treat: more bread (sorry that's what you get if you choose this). Or maybe a cookie instead.
I would be willing to try it and see if it works.
Proposed McDonald's Diet
I think McDonald's could fit very well into a weight-loss plan. Here is what I propose.
Breakfast: Egg McMuffin or Sausage McMuffin and coffee. Only eat one of the muffin slices and save the other one for later. Alternative: big breakfast, but only eat half the biscuit.
Lunch: Grilled Chicken or Filet-o-Fish, side salad (low-calorie dressing) and diet soda. Only eat one of the slices of bread. Could possibly have two sandwiches, or a full salad (watch the dressing) but still only one slice of bread total.
Tea: Fruit - apple slices or cuties, a slice of bread, and unsweetened ice tea.
Dinner: McDouble or Triple Cheeseburger, no ketchup, without the bread, side salad, and a small french fry (no ketchup) and diet soda. Add a can of green beans (not on the menu) or serving of broccoli. Could possibly have two burgers or a even a double quarter pounder with cheese (no bread).
Treat: Ice-cream cone or hot caramel sundae or small shake or frappacino. Or Fruit n Yogurt parfait. Or a glass of wine.
I haven't added it up, but I think its about 1500 calories, depending on the treat. I would like to try it sometime.
Update: One skinny woman ate every meal at McDonalds for a week and didn't gain a pound. Here is the Day 1 diet:
Breakfast: Coffee, Egg White McMuffin
Lunch: Grilled Chicken Snack Wrap, Side Salad with Ranch
Dinner: 1 Sausage Burrito
Breakfast: Egg McMuffin or Sausage McMuffin and coffee. Only eat one of the muffin slices and save the other one for later. Alternative: big breakfast, but only eat half the biscuit.
Lunch: Grilled Chicken or Filet-o-Fish, side salad (low-calorie dressing) and diet soda. Only eat one of the slices of bread. Could possibly have two sandwiches, or a full salad (watch the dressing) but still only one slice of bread total.
Tea: Fruit - apple slices or cuties, a slice of bread, and unsweetened ice tea.
Dinner: McDouble or Triple Cheeseburger, no ketchup, without the bread, side salad, and a small french fry (no ketchup) and diet soda. Add a can of green beans (not on the menu) or serving of broccoli. Could possibly have two burgers or a even a double quarter pounder with cheese (no bread).
Treat: Ice-cream cone or hot caramel sundae or small shake or frappacino. Or Fruit n Yogurt parfait. Or a glass of wine.
I haven't added it up, but I think its about 1500 calories, depending on the treat. I would like to try it sometime.
Update: One skinny woman ate every meal at McDonalds for a week and didn't gain a pound. Here is the Day 1 diet:
Breakfast: Coffee, Egg White McMuffin
Lunch: Grilled Chicken Snack Wrap, Side Salad with Ranch
Dinner: 1 Sausage Burrito
Proposed modification of the Military Diet
I have tried the military diet three times and failed each time and didn't experience weight loss. There are some things I like about it though. I think it could be changed slightly and used for long-term weight loss. Here is what I would change. I would make a standard breakfast, lunch and dinner menu and allow for modifications.
Breakfast should be one slice of toast plus a protein (peanut butter, egg, or small amount of meat) and some cheese or butter. I'm not a fan of fruit for breakfast, but in small amounts it is ok. And of course coffee or tea if desired.
Lunch should be one slice of toast or equivalent in crackers plus tuna (or equivalent cottage cheese). Day 3 doesn't have enough food for lunch. I like tuna every day for lunch.
Snack ("tea") should be a small fruit (apple, banana, grapefruit) with possibly some additional carbs (cookie or biscuit). This can be combined with dinner.
Dinner should be simple. Meat (hot dogs, small steak, hamburger, chicken breast, etc., as much as 8 oz if desired), and veggies - green beans, broccoli, salad, etc. No bread or pasta or potatoes.
After-dinner treat: small ice cream, glass of wine, or yogurt. Can be combined with dinner.
I think this could be followed long-term, and even with adding a little more to it, it is still less than 1500 calories.
Breakfast should be one slice of toast plus a protein (peanut butter, egg, or small amount of meat) and some cheese or butter. I'm not a fan of fruit for breakfast, but in small amounts it is ok. And of course coffee or tea if desired.
Lunch should be one slice of toast or equivalent in crackers plus tuna (or equivalent cottage cheese). Day 3 doesn't have enough food for lunch. I like tuna every day for lunch.
Snack ("tea") should be a small fruit (apple, banana, grapefruit) with possibly some additional carbs (cookie or biscuit). This can be combined with dinner.
Dinner should be simple. Meat (hot dogs, small steak, hamburger, chicken breast, etc., as much as 8 oz if desired), and veggies - green beans, broccoli, salad, etc. No bread or pasta or potatoes.
After-dinner treat: small ice cream, glass of wine, or yogurt. Can be combined with dinner.
I think this could be followed long-term, and even with adding a little more to it, it is still less than 1500 calories.
The Drinking Man's Diet
This is another low-carb diet that predates Atkins and also involves lots of alcohol. It was written by Robert Cameron in 1964. It is one that Frank Sinatra or Dean Martin might have been on. Sample menu:
It was very popular in the 1960's and sold 2.4 million copies. Note that it bans beer, which is much higher in carbs than stronger drinks (rum, whisky, gin, vodka, brandy, etc).
• Breakfast: Ham or 2 slices of bacon, a fried or boiled egg, coffee or tea, ¼ of cantaloupe or 4 ounces of tomato juice.
• Lunch: Broiled fish, steak, or chicken, a dry martini or whisky with soda, green beans or asparagus, lettuce and tomato salad, coffee or tea, and 2 glasses of dry wine.
• Dinner: Coffee or tea, shrimp cocktail, martini or highballs, 2 stalks of celery stuffed with pate, greens beans, 1 cup of Brussel sprouts, a half cup of cauliflower, 2 glasses of dry wine, ½ an avocado with French dressing, cheese: Swiss, cheddar, camembert, or Roquefort, and a serving of lamb, pork, beef, or veal chicken.
Source: http://www.dietsinreview.com/diets/the-drinking-mans-diet/It was very popular in the 1960's and sold 2.4 million copies. Note that it bans beer, which is much higher in carbs than stronger drinks (rum, whisky, gin, vodka, brandy, etc).
The Banting Diet
This is the original low-carb diet, by William Banting (1796-1878).
Source: http://www.lowcarb.ca/corpulence/corpulence_9.html
I am very intrigued. Mr Banting lost 50 lbs on it over the course of a year. Note that he does eat some carbs (biscuit or toast for breakfast, vegetables and toast and alcohol for dinner, fruit and rusk (biscuit) for tea, alcohol for supper and nightcap. He evidently was a heavy drinker. He cuts out most sugar, starch, beer, milk, and butter. His supper seems very sparse, with only meat and wine. I may try a modified version of it.
For breakfast, at 9.0 A.M., I take five to six ounces of either beef mutton, kidneys, broiled fish, bacon, or cold meat of any kind except pork or veal; a large cup of tea or coffee (without milk or sugar), a little biscuit, or one ounce of dry toast; making together six ounces solid, nine liquid.
For dinner, at 2.0 P.M., Five or six ounces of any fish except salmon, herrings, or eels, any meat except pork or veal, any vegetable except potato, parsnip, beetroot, turnip, or carrot, one ounce of dry toast, fruit out of a pudding not sweetened any kind of poultry or game, and two or three glasses of good claret, sherry, or Madeira— Champagne, port, and beer forbidden; making together ten to twelve ounces solid, and ten liquid.
For tea, at 6.0 P.M., Two or three ounces of cooked fruit, a rusk or two, and a cup of tea without milk or sugar; making two to four ounces solid, nine liquid.
For supper, at 9.0 P.M. Three or four ounces of meat or fish, similar to dinner, with a glass or two of claret or sherry and water; making four ounces solid and seven liquid.
For nightcap, if required, A tumbler of grog—(gin, whisky, or brandy, without sugar)—or a glass or two of claret or sherry.
Source: http://www.lowcarb.ca/corpulence/corpulence_9.html
I am very intrigued. Mr Banting lost 50 lbs on it over the course of a year. Note that he does eat some carbs (biscuit or toast for breakfast, vegetables and toast and alcohol for dinner, fruit and rusk (biscuit) for tea, alcohol for supper and nightcap. He evidently was a heavy drinker. He cuts out most sugar, starch, beer, milk, and butter. His supper seems very sparse, with only meat and wine. I may try a modified version of it.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Bernanke is an idiot
Read: Bernanke Urges Use Of Negative Rates When Next Recession Strikes
In theory, lower rates stimulate the economy. Let's say that a firm has a potential investment that will return 10% and it can borrow at 5%. That may not be enough profit margin to make it worthwhile, considering the risk. But if it can borrow at 2%, now it may make sense to do the investment.
In theory, lower rates stimulate the economy. Let's say that a firm has a potential investment that will return 10% and it can borrow at 5%. That may not be enough profit margin to make it worthwhile, considering the risk. But if it can borrow at 2%, now it may make sense to do the investment.
Friday, September 2, 2016
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Day 1 of the Military Diet
The essence of day one is a new beginning. You are starting a new project, and it only last 3 days. To kickstart it you are eating foods that you don't eat on the next 2 days.
Grapefruit is low in calories, so go ahead and eat a whole one. (I don't know what you would do with the other half - stick it in the fridge for three days?). Don't add sugar of course. Grapefruit has fiber and helps lower insulin. But this is the only day you will eat it.
This is the only day you will eat peanut butter. Peanut butter should be eaten sparingly, since it has both fat and carbs, but it is a good transition food and it is filling.
This is also the only day where you will eat a lot of toast. The plan calls for 1 slice at breakfast and 1 slice at lunch but I usually have 2 slices at breakfast.
So congratulations on the new start! No snacking allowed, and only drink water, coffee or tea. Let's do this!
Grapefruit is low in calories, so go ahead and eat a whole one. (I don't know what you would do with the other half - stick it in the fridge for three days?). Don't add sugar of course. Grapefruit has fiber and helps lower insulin. But this is the only day you will eat it.
This is the only day you will eat peanut butter. Peanut butter should be eaten sparingly, since it has both fat and carbs, but it is a good transition food and it is filling.
This is also the only day where you will eat a lot of toast. The plan calls for 1 slice at breakfast and 1 slice at lunch but I usually have 2 slices at breakfast.
So congratulations on the new start! No snacking allowed, and only drink water, coffee or tea. Let's do this!
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