"Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029. In that case, benefits in 2030 would need to be reduced by 29 percent from the scheduled amounts."
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52298
The Social Security trustees disagree and say that it will be solvent until 2034.
So, either 13 years or 18 years from now.
Friday, December 23, 2016
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
3000 digit prime number
I am playing around and discovered a possible prime number with more than 3000 digits:
2 ^ 10005 * 210 -19 [3015 digits] is probably prime to a certainty of 99.21875%.
I haven't verified this, but it is the largest possible prime number I personally have found. Of course the world record has 22 million digits so this is nothing.
I will post bigger ones if I find them.
=========================================================
2 ^ 10017 * 210 -17 [3018 digits] is probably prime to a certainty of 87.5%.
This is a huge number that start with 549143 and ends with 525103.
I turned down the certainty factor to speed up the process. It takes about 15 seconds to check each candidate. To verify this to 100% certainty could take hours, and I'm not interested in doing that right now.
2 ^ 10005 * 210 -19 [3015 digits] is probably prime to a certainty of 99.21875%.
I haven't verified this, but it is the largest possible prime number I personally have found. Of course the world record has 22 million digits so this is nothing.
I will post bigger ones if I find them.
=========================================================
2 ^ 10017 * 210 -17 [3018 digits] is probably prime to a certainty of 87.5%.
This is a huge number that start with 549143 and ends with 525103.
I turned down the certainty factor to speed up the process. It takes about 15 seconds to check each candidate. To verify this to 100% certainty could take hours, and I'm not interested in doing that right now.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
11 year cycle
I keep trying to find patterns and I keep being wrong. I thought there was a 7-year economic cycle, then a 8-year cycle. So I am probably wrong on this too. With that said ...
I think events from 11 years ago might be repeating themselves. (The reason why it is longer than 7 or 8 years is because everything sort of froze up for several years.) Of course not exactly, but look at this.
December 14, 2016 - Fed raises rates to 0.50%
December 13, 2005 - Fed raises rates to 4.25%
The Fed raised rates 4 more times in 2006 before hitting its maximum of 5.25% for that business cycle. I think the Fed will raise rates about 4 times this time before hitting a peak of 1.5%.
Last time the recession started in December 2007. So this time a recession starts in December 2018. Last time, the Dow hit a high of 14164 on 10/9/2007. So 11 years from this is October 2018, when the next crash will occur. So if there is any validity to this, and I think there might be, there won't be a recession or stock market crash in 2017. The Dow could go up another 40% before the next high. I don't think it will go up that much, but it could go above 25,000 before the next crash.
Last time the real estate market froze up in mid-2006. So I expect this to occur again in mid-2017. The luxury market has already peaked, but the regular market is still booming for now.
So that's my forecast. Nothing to worry about until October 2018, when everything will go to heck again.
Update: Sunspots also have 11-year cycles.
I think events from 11 years ago might be repeating themselves. (The reason why it is longer than 7 or 8 years is because everything sort of froze up for several years.) Of course not exactly, but look at this.
December 14, 2016 - Fed raises rates to 0.50%
December 13, 2005 - Fed raises rates to 4.25%
The Fed raised rates 4 more times in 2006 before hitting its maximum of 5.25% for that business cycle. I think the Fed will raise rates about 4 times this time before hitting a peak of 1.5%.
Last time the recession started in December 2007. So this time a recession starts in December 2018. Last time, the Dow hit a high of 14164 on 10/9/2007. So 11 years from this is October 2018, when the next crash will occur. So if there is any validity to this, and I think there might be, there won't be a recession or stock market crash in 2017. The Dow could go up another 40% before the next high. I don't think it will go up that much, but it could go above 25,000 before the next crash.
Last time the real estate market froze up in mid-2006. So I expect this to occur again in mid-2017. The luxury market has already peaked, but the regular market is still booming for now.
So that's my forecast. Nothing to worry about until October 2018, when everything will go to heck again.
Update: Sunspots also have 11-year cycles.
Wednesday, December 7, 2016
The next Shenzhen
It's called Iskandar Malaysia, which is a 2200 sq. km. special economic region centered on the city of Johor Bahru, adjacent to the city-state of Singapore.
See: http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/12/china-building-malaysian-version-of.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-11-21/-100-billion-chinese-made-city-near-singapore-scares-the-hell-out-of-everybody
See: http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/12/china-building-malaysian-version-of.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-11-21/-100-billion-chinese-made-city-near-singapore-scares-the-hell-out-of-everybody
Should California secede?
See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-12-07/how-to-make-california-great-secede-with-a-little-help-from-putin
As president of Yes California, Marinelli is organizing a statewide referendum on independence to be held in 2019—if he can collect half a million signatures by next fall. He runs the secession movement from 10,000 kilometers (6,000 miles) away while teaching English at a language school in Yekaterinburg. He is preparing the ground for an “embassy of California” in Moscow, with the help of a vehemently anti-American group supported by the Kremlin. The avatar on his professional Facebook page shows him posing in front of the Voskresenskiye Gates that open onto Red Square.
As president of Yes California, Marinelli is organizing a statewide referendum on independence to be held in 2019—if he can collect half a million signatures by next fall. He runs the secession movement from 10,000 kilometers (6,000 miles) away while teaching English at a language school in Yekaterinburg. He is preparing the ground for an “embassy of California” in Moscow, with the help of a vehemently anti-American group supported by the Kremlin. The avatar on his professional Facebook page shows him posing in front of the Voskresenskiye Gates that open onto Red Square.
Monday, December 5, 2016
Largest number which is not prime
This is interesting. The largest prime number is: 2^74207281-1, which was announced just last month. It has 22 million digits in base 10.
The largest number which has been factored is:
2^383858863-1 which is divisible by 2385654186158054311
Someone is fascinated with the number 2^383838383-1, which has no factors below 2^83. This appears to be the highest probably prime number.
A lot of work is being done on primes in the range of 2^332,192,831 to 2^332,399,999. If one of these was proven prime, it would have 100 million digits in base 10.
Update:
The number 2^999999893-1 has been factored. It is divisible by 5999999359. That is the highest factored number listed in the Mersenne database, so it almost certainly is the biggest factored number.
The largest number which has been factored is:
2^383858863-1 which is divisible by 2385654186158054311
Someone is fascinated with the number 2^383838383-1, which has no factors below 2^83. This appears to be the highest probably prime number.
A lot of work is being done on primes in the range of 2^332,192,831 to 2^332,399,999. If one of these was proven prime, it would have 100 million digits in base 10.
Update:
The number 2^999999893-1 has been factored. It is divisible by 5999999359. That is the highest factored number listed in the Mersenne database, so it almost certainly is the biggest factored number.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Return of the Trillion Dollar Deficit
On 11/30/2016, the national debt was at 19,948 B. One year prior, on 11/30/2015, the debt was at 18,827 B. So it increased by over $1 trillion in the following year. This marks the 9th consecutive month (since March 2016) in which the national debt was at least $1 trillion higher than the same point one year prior.
I don't think we will ever again see a situation in which it isn't at least 1 trillion more than the prior year, unless there is some phony freeze. So with interest rates rising, and the national debt rapidly increasing, interest costs on the debt will rise rapidly as well.
I purposely haven't done a long-term debt forecast in more than 3 years, but I think it is time for another one.
I don't think we will ever again see a situation in which it isn't at least 1 trillion more than the prior year, unless there is some phony freeze. So with interest rates rising, and the national debt rapidly increasing, interest costs on the debt will rise rapidly as well.
I purposely haven't done a long-term debt forecast in more than 3 years, but I think it is time for another one.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Treasury Rates
The yield on 1-month T-bills reached 0.38% today. And the key benchmark rate of 10 years reached 2.37%. And the 30-year bonds are at 3.02%.
Query: when was the last time the yield was this high?
On 10/29/2008, the rate for the one-month was at 0.41%. So this is a record since that time, just over 8 years ago.
On 7/14/2015, the rate for the ten-year was at 2.41%.
On 12/30/2015, the rate for the thirty-year was 3.04%. The highest rate during 2015 for the 30-year was 3.25% on 6/26/2015. Before that, on 1/3/2014 the rate was 3.93%.
Monday, November 28, 2016
$19 trillion, 900 Billion
The national debt is at $19.9 trillion. It should be at the "magic" $20 trillion mark by Christmas.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Satellite Abandoned In 1967 Mysteriously Comes Back Online
An American satellite abandoned in 1967 suddenly came back online and began transmitting again for the first time in 50 years. Amateur astronomers first suspected that they’d found the satellite in 2013, but needed years to confirm that it was still occasionally transmitting. The satellite, dubbed LES1, was built by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and launched into space in 1965.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/22/satellite-abandoned-in-1967-mysteriously-comes-back-online/
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Elections Cause Recessions
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-17/raoul-pal-warns-trump-will-see-recession-2017
Starting in 1960, there is a recession every time the parties change power.
Eisenhower(R) ==> Kennedy(D). Recession of 1960-61.
Johnson(D) ==> Nixon (R). Recession of 1969-1970.
Ford(R) ==> Carter(D). Recession of 1973-1975. (It's not really fair to blame Carter for this).
Carter(D) ==> Reagan (R). Recessions of 1980 and 1981-1982.
Bush(R) ==> Clinton(D). Recession of 1990-1991. (It's not really fair to blame Clinton for this).
Clinton (D) ==> Bush (R). Recession of 2001.
Bush (R) ==> Obama (D). Recession of 2007-2009.
Obama (D) ==> Trump(R). Recession of 2017-2018?
Since 1960, every single recession has occurred within a year of an election in which the parties switch power. An no recession has occurred at any other time. The list actually goes back all the way to 1910, I just haven't analyzed it further back. (What about the recession of 1957-58?)
There will be a recession next year, guaranteed.
Starting in 1960, there is a recession every time the parties change power.
Eisenhower(R) ==> Kennedy(D). Recession of 1960-61.
Johnson(D) ==> Nixon (R). Recession of 1969-1970.
Ford(R) ==> Carter(D). Recession of 1973-1975. (It's not really fair to blame Carter for this).
Carter(D) ==> Reagan (R). Recessions of 1980 and 1981-1982.
Bush(R) ==> Clinton(D). Recession of 1990-1991. (It's not really fair to blame Clinton for this).
Clinton (D) ==> Bush (R). Recession of 2001.
Bush (R) ==> Obama (D). Recession of 2007-2009.
Obama (D) ==> Trump(R). Recession of 2017-2018?
Since 1960, every single recession has occurred within a year of an election in which the parties switch power. An no recession has occurred at any other time. The list actually goes back all the way to 1910, I just haven't analyzed it further back. (What about the recession of 1957-58?)
There will be a recession next year, guaranteed.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
SP Trendline
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500
The SP 500, after closing down for 8 days in a row, is at 2088. A trendline on the lowest dips dating back all the way to March 9, 2009 (when it was at 676) shows that there should be support just below 2000 (call it 1975). So long as it stays above this level, the current correction is just a minor adjustment to the bull market. No need to panic just yet.
Recession to start October 2017
Assessments of business conditions now and perceptions for the next six months deteriorated significantly, as they did for the jobs market and spending intentions for homes and appliances.
This sentiment index generally peaks between 60% and 70% of the way through the cycle and so if that traditional pattern holds for this one, it would mean bracing for a recession to start any time from October 2017 to May 2018.
--http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-all-signs-are-flashing-this-market-is-late-in-the-game
This sentiment index generally peaks between 60% and 70% of the way through the cycle and so if that traditional pattern holds for this one, it would mean bracing for a recession to start any time from October 2017 to May 2018.
--http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-all-signs-are-flashing-this-market-is-late-in-the-game
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Seven Straight Days of Declines
The S+P has now declined for seven days in a row, from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2. The Dow has declined five days in a row, from Oct. 26 to Nov. 2. In both cases, the drop hasn't been that much, but it is the trend that is disconcerting. The Dow is at its floor of 17959. I believe the best case scenario is for it to continue to drop slightly, like a managed decline.
The problem is if investors notice the trend, notice that it has broken through the floor, and then are not sure where it will stabilize, so they panic sell. But it probably will bounce around a little and stay at the same level until the election. Then who knows.
If the S+P declines again tomorrow, then it will match its all time losing streak of 8 days from Sept 29, 2008 to Oct. 10, 2008.
===============
Update 11/3/16: Stocks declined again today, and again by not much. It does seem like a managed decline. The S+P is now down for 8 days in a row, matching its all time record. The Dow is now down 6 days in a row and closed at 17930.
There was a nine day selloff in the S&P in December 1980.
The problem is if investors notice the trend, notice that it has broken through the floor, and then are not sure where it will stabilize, so they panic sell. But it probably will bounce around a little and stay at the same level until the election. Then who knows.
If the S+P declines again tomorrow, then it will match its all time losing streak of 8 days from Sept 29, 2008 to Oct. 10, 2008.
===============
Update 11/3/16: Stocks declined again today, and again by not much. It does seem like a managed decline. The S+P is now down for 8 days in a row, matching its all time record. The Dow is now down 6 days in a row and closed at 17930.
There was a nine day selloff in the S&P in December 1980.
Labor Market Conditions Index
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRBLMCI
If this index drops below -10, it almost certainly means a recession has started. It currently, as of Sept 2016, is at -2.2. Watch this chart.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
$19 trillion, 800 billion
Less than 2 weeks after hitting $19.7 trillion, we have now hit $19.8 trillion. Must be nice to be able to print $100 billion out of thin air just like that. Where did it all go?
Monday, October 24, 2016
SmartPoints Formula
Source: http://calorielab.com/news/2015/10/08/weight-watchers-pointsplus-formula/
Interesting. But I think they penalize saturated fat unfairly, and they don't give any benefit to fiber. And they give too much credit for protein.
The Pizza Diet
A guy in New Zealand (also here) ate a large pizza every day for 222 straight days. He ate an average of 4000 calories a day. He gained 6kg (13 lbs), his body fat dropped from 15% to 13.5%, and his cholesterol levels improved. Of course, he was also lifting weights.
Trump is Molotov Cocktail You Can Throw on Crooked System
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2016/10/trump-is-molotov-cocktail-you-can-throw-on-crooked-system-catherine-austin-fitts-with-greg-hunter/
Michael Moore said in an interview that Donald Trump is a Molotov cocktail you can throw on the system. Interestingly enough, if you look at the federal system, it has a negative return on investment to taxpayers. If you believe you can never fix that, then throwing a Molotov cocktail into the middle of that is the most intelligent thing you can do for productivity. It was when I wrote the theme for productivity for the second quarter wrap-up I realized . . . I may have profound disagreements with Trump’s style, but I can throw the Molotov cocktail (voting for Trump).
Michael Moore said in an interview that Donald Trump is a Molotov cocktail you can throw on the system. Interestingly enough, if you look at the federal system, it has a negative return on investment to taxpayers. If you believe you can never fix that, then throwing a Molotov cocktail into the middle of that is the most intelligent thing you can do for productivity. It was when I wrote the theme for productivity for the second quarter wrap-up I realized . . . I may have profound disagreements with Trump’s style, but I can throw the Molotov cocktail (voting for Trump).
Sunday, October 23, 2016
Monday, October 17, 2016
The Harcombe Diet
Zoe Harcombe explains phase one. She is a little heard to hear because of her voice, but it is an interesting concept. I doubt that 14 lbs can be lost in 5 days, but there is only one way to find out.
Fat meals vs. Carb meals
You can lose weight either with a low-calorie, low-fat diet, or with a low-carb, high-fat diet. With the Harcombe diet, you can switch these up. Either have a "fat meal", where carbs are restricted as much as possible, or have a "carb meal", where fat is restricted as much as possible, and separate the meals by at least 4 hours to give your body time to digest it. Protein can be eaten with either kind of meal, but the carb meals should have lean protein.
The only foods that are prohibited are those that are high carb and high fat, for example, pizza, doughnuts, french fries, ice cream and some kinds of yogurt. Also, sugar and corn syrup. So you can eat both bread and butter, but not together. Veggies (with the exception of potatoes, corn, beans, rice and wheat which are all carb-heavy) can be eaten at either meal.
Also, forbidden would be any kind of soft drink (including diet), ketchup and hoisan sauce (because of the sugar), and salad dressings. Yogurt would not be allowed unless it is low-fat and thus eaten with carbs, or low-carb and thus eaten with fat.
Interesting theory, worth a try.
===================
Arggh. There is another theory that protein and carbs shouldn't be combined in the same meal and that fat and carbs should be combined, in order to lower the glycemic index. I don't know what to say. Under this theory, there is a category called "starch" which includes bread, bananas, rice, corn and potatoes, which shouldn't be eaten with "protein" (meat, cheese and beans).
This actually makes more sense to me, but it is harder to describe. I could see a study with 4 options - a low-carb, meat-heavy diet; a low-fat, restricted-calorie diet; a Harcombe fat vs carb diet, and a food-combining protein vs starch diet.
===================
These are contradictory. In the Harcombe diet, meat can be eaten with bread, but butter can't be eaten with bread. In the food-combining diet, bread and butter can be eaten together but not bread and meat.
Under the food-combining diet, pizza is forbidden, not because of the carbs and fat, but because of the carbs and protein (meat + cheese). Doughnuts are forbidden, not because of the carbs and fat, but because of the sugar. French fries are not forbidden, but should not be eat with ketchup (sugar) or meat. Ice cream is forbidden because of the sugar. Yogurt is allowed as long as it is low in sugar.
====================
And yet another thought. The most passionate defender of starch, Dr. John McDougall is also in favor of low-fat.
So, bottom-line, if you must have bread, eat it without meat, cheese, or butter. If you must have potatoes, eat them baked, not fried, and without butter, cheese or meat. If you must have rice, eat it veggies, not with meat.
I am sure this isn't the final word. Time for experiments.
The only foods that are prohibited are those that are high carb and high fat, for example, pizza, doughnuts, french fries, ice cream and some kinds of yogurt. Also, sugar and corn syrup. So you can eat both bread and butter, but not together. Veggies (with the exception of potatoes, corn, beans, rice and wheat which are all carb-heavy) can be eaten at either meal.
Also, forbidden would be any kind of soft drink (including diet), ketchup and hoisan sauce (because of the sugar), and salad dressings. Yogurt would not be allowed unless it is low-fat and thus eaten with carbs, or low-carb and thus eaten with fat.
Interesting theory, worth a try.
===================
Arggh. There is another theory that protein and carbs shouldn't be combined in the same meal and that fat and carbs should be combined, in order to lower the glycemic index. I don't know what to say. Under this theory, there is a category called "starch" which includes bread, bananas, rice, corn and potatoes, which shouldn't be eaten with "protein" (meat, cheese and beans).
This actually makes more sense to me, but it is harder to describe. I could see a study with 4 options - a low-carb, meat-heavy diet; a low-fat, restricted-calorie diet; a Harcombe fat vs carb diet, and a food-combining protein vs starch diet.
===================
These are contradictory. In the Harcombe diet, meat can be eaten with bread, but butter can't be eaten with bread. In the food-combining diet, bread and butter can be eaten together but not bread and meat.
Under the food-combining diet, pizza is forbidden, not because of the carbs and fat, but because of the carbs and protein (meat + cheese). Doughnuts are forbidden, not because of the carbs and fat, but because of the sugar. French fries are not forbidden, but should not be eat with ketchup (sugar) or meat. Ice cream is forbidden because of the sugar. Yogurt is allowed as long as it is low in sugar.
====================
And yet another thought. The most passionate defender of starch, Dr. John McDougall is also in favor of low-fat.
So, bottom-line, if you must have bread, eat it without meat, cheese, or butter. If you must have potatoes, eat them baked, not fried, and without butter, cheese or meat. If you must have rice, eat it veggies, not with meat.
I am sure this isn't the final word. Time for experiments.
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Karl Denninger freaks out about Medicaid spending
Read: The CERTAIN Destruction Of Our Nation https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3411605
I haven't had time to really analyze this. He might be right.
I haven't had time to really analyze this. He might be right.
$19 trillion, 700 billion
The national debt is suddenly spiraling out of control. After years of relative fiscal constraint, the Obama administration is partying like 1999 and they want to go out in style and soak the taxpayers or bondholders for everything they got. The national debt is now $19.720 trillion.
So I will be commenting on every 100 billion dollar increase, probably every couple of weeks, until it reaches $20 trillion, which I now project will be about December 31.
So I will be commenting on every 100 billion dollar increase, probably every couple of weeks, until it reaches $20 trillion, which I now project will be about December 31.
Friday, October 14, 2016
Monetary Easing Exacerbates Inequality
See http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-14/land-with-longest-stretch-of-negative-rates-finds-rich-are-getting-richer-faster
Years of ultra low rates have benefited the rich more than the poor. Lower interest costs have coincided with a significant rise in capital income. The wise men point out that “lower rate expenses” are one of the reasons why equity income has risen more than disposable income, thus adding to increased inequality.
Years of ultra low rates have benefited the rich more than the poor. Lower interest costs have coincided with a significant rise in capital income. The wise men point out that “lower rate expenses” are one of the reasons why equity income has risen more than disposable income, thus adding to increased inequality.
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Subway on a diet
This is part of my series on eating at a fast food restaurant while on a diet.
Subway is very difficult because they have so much bread and because of a discount for getting a footlong. And because their salads are relatively expensive and unsatisfactory. But here is my dinner today:
Italian BMT on Parmesian Oregeno bread (6-inch, half the bread, with cheese). I added swiss cheese (1 oz, I think), mustard and mayonaise. This has 582 calories, 34g fat, 46g carbs (3g fiber), 23g protein. Removing the 1/2 the bread saves an estimated 93 calories, 1g fat, 20g carbs (1g fiber) and 1g protein. Total: 489 calories, 33g fat, 26g carbs (2g fiber), 22g protein. Total points: 38. Cost with tax $3.78.
This was very delicious, and bigger than I remembered a 6-inch sub being. My only complaint is the the meat was a little sparse. I could have ordered it double the meat.
Verdict: This passes the test. But I won't give it flying colors. Because if you think it is ok to eat at Subway, you will order a footlong and then eat a ginormous amount of calories and then wonder why you are getting fat. You will say to yourself that you will only eat half and eat the other half later, but you will eat the whole thing. If you are going to try to attempt this experiment, DO NOT ORDER A FOOTLONG. Getting double meat on a 6-inch would be a much better solution.
Subway is very difficult because they have so much bread and because of a discount for getting a footlong. And because their salads are relatively expensive and unsatisfactory. But here is my dinner today:
Italian BMT on Parmesian Oregeno bread (6-inch, half the bread, with cheese). I added swiss cheese (1 oz, I think), mustard and mayonaise. This has 582 calories, 34g fat, 46g carbs (3g fiber), 23g protein. Removing the 1/2 the bread saves an estimated 93 calories, 1g fat, 20g carbs (1g fiber) and 1g protein. Total: 489 calories, 33g fat, 26g carbs (2g fiber), 22g protein. Total points: 38. Cost with tax $3.78.
This was very delicious, and bigger than I remembered a 6-inch sub being. My only complaint is the the meat was a little sparse. I could have ordered it double the meat.
Verdict: This passes the test. But I won't give it flying colors. Because if you think it is ok to eat at Subway, you will order a footlong and then eat a ginormous amount of calories and then wonder why you are getting fat. You will say to yourself that you will only eat half and eat the other half later, but you will eat the whole thing. If you are going to try to attempt this experiment, DO NOT ORDER A FOOTLONG. Getting double meat on a 6-inch would be a much better solution.
Debtwatch Warning for $19.7 trillion
The national debt is just a billion dollars shy of $19.7 trillion. Since it has been increasing so fast recently (up $187 billion in the last week), I think if it breaks this barrier within the next week, that would be a really bad sign. So let's hope the Treasury has enough money for now. If it is still below $19.7 trillion by 10/20/16, let's breathe a sigh of relief. It is breaks the barrier, it may be time to freak out.
See also:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-13/while-media-obsesses-over-pussy-gate-us-debt-soars-187-trillion
See also:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-13/while-media-obsesses-over-pussy-gate-us-debt-soars-187-trillion
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Wendy's on a diet, part 2
I previously reviewed Wendys on a diet. Here is another take on it. There was a special on the grilled chicken combo for $5, so I ordered a grilled chicken sandwich, changed the side to a caesar side salad and had a small diet coke.
Grilled Chicken Sandwich (only 1 bun): This is 360 calories, 8g fat, 38g carbs (3g fiber), 35g protein. To make this total, make the total 364 calories. The bread has 165 calories, 1g fat, 6g protein, 33g carbs (2g fiber). So removing one bun saves 76 calories, 3g protein and 16g carbs (1g fiber). The bread was a multigrain bun and was delicious. Total: 288 calories, 8g fat, 22g carbs (2g fiber), 32g protein.
Caesar Side Salad with Caesar dressing, without croutons: 262 calories, 18g fat, 18g carbs (3g fiber), 7g protein. The croutons have 92 calories, 4g fat, 12g carbs (1g fiber), 2g protein. The dressing has 80 calories, 8g fat, 1g carbs, 1g protein. I added additional parmesan cheese which is not counted. Total: 170 calories, 14g fat, 6g carbs (2g fiber), 5g protein.
Total: 458 calories, 22g fat, 28g carbs (4g fiber), 37g protein. Using my revised point system, this is 45 points (24 [carbs] + 19 [protein] + 2 [fat]. The total with tax was $5.40.
Verdict: This is a winner. The grilled chicken was perfect, and the sauce was delicious. I think this is better even than Chick-fil-a, although I would have to compare again with their grilled chicken instead of the breaded. I think this is a much better choice than the Power Mediterranean Chicken salad which has too many carbs. This is a perfect meal, and this would be good for the dinner portion of a diet, (almost any kind, although I am doing keto). The only possible change would be to add a Double Stack (hold the bun, hold the ketchup), although this is filling enough.
To be fair, now I have to compare the other places again, with the grilled chicken sandwiches and side salad.
Grilled Chicken Sandwich (only 1 bun): This is 360 calories, 8g fat, 38g carbs (3g fiber), 35g protein. To make this total, make the total 364 calories. The bread has 165 calories, 1g fat, 6g protein, 33g carbs (2g fiber). So removing one bun saves 76 calories, 3g protein and 16g carbs (1g fiber). The bread was a multigrain bun and was delicious. Total: 288 calories, 8g fat, 22g carbs (2g fiber), 32g protein.
Caesar Side Salad with Caesar dressing, without croutons: 262 calories, 18g fat, 18g carbs (3g fiber), 7g protein. The croutons have 92 calories, 4g fat, 12g carbs (1g fiber), 2g protein. The dressing has 80 calories, 8g fat, 1g carbs, 1g protein. I added additional parmesan cheese which is not counted. Total: 170 calories, 14g fat, 6g carbs (2g fiber), 5g protein.
Total: 458 calories, 22g fat, 28g carbs (4g fiber), 37g protein. Using my revised point system, this is 45 points (24 [carbs] + 19 [protein] + 2 [fat]. The total with tax was $5.40.
Verdict: This is a winner. The grilled chicken was perfect, and the sauce was delicious. I think this is better even than Chick-fil-a, although I would have to compare again with their grilled chicken instead of the breaded. I think this is a much better choice than the Power Mediterranean Chicken salad which has too many carbs. This is a perfect meal, and this would be good for the dinner portion of a diet, (almost any kind, although I am doing keto). The only possible change would be to add a Double Stack (hold the bun, hold the ketchup), although this is filling enough.
To be fair, now I have to compare the other places again, with the grilled chicken sandwiches and side salad.
Stock market crash warning
This is from HSBC. "We now issue a RED ALERT". So long as the Dow remains above 17992, everything is fine. If it drops below that level, heaven help us. Right now (10/12) it is at 18144, so there is about 150 points of margin. If it goes above 18449, everything is fine and the alert will be canceled.
There was a triple top which the market failed to break, then it dropped below a trend line, and now it is testing resistance.
Update: The Dow closed today (10/13) at 18098. It dropped as low as 17959.95 before finding support. So I am moving the floor to 17959. It will break out at some point either to the upside or downside soon. Moving up isn't necessarily good, because that means it would have more to fall. The best case scenario is probably a slow decline. So a close slightly below the floor, without dropping further, would be a good sign. But still, breaking through 17959 could cause a crash.
Update 2 (11/1/2016): I am cancelling the crash warning, although the stock marking is still flat lining. I really expected something to happen in October. The next danger period will be January. I don't think the election results will make that much difference. Whoever is the next president is in for a world of hurt.
There was a triple top which the market failed to break, then it dropped below a trend line, and now it is testing resistance.
Update: The Dow closed today (10/13) at 18098. It dropped as low as 17959.95 before finding support. So I am moving the floor to 17959. It will break out at some point either to the upside or downside soon. Moving up isn't necessarily good, because that means it would have more to fall. The best case scenario is probably a slow decline. So a close slightly below the floor, without dropping further, would be a good sign. But still, breaking through 17959 could cause a crash.
Update 2 (11/1/2016): I am cancelling the crash warning, although the stock marking is still flat lining. I really expected something to happen in October. The next danger period will be January. I don't think the election results will make that much difference. Whoever is the next president is in for a world of hurt.
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
National Debt Jumps
Source: www.treasurydirect.gov
The national debt increased every day from 9/28/16 to 10/6/16, increasing $168 billion during those 6 business days. Also, note that the total debt on 10/6/16 was $1.5 trillion more than it was on 10/6/15 (although this is a little unfair to compare because there was a debt freeze at the time in 2015). I thought the deficit was only about $500 billion per year now. The total debt should hit $20 trillion about 2/1/17, right after the new president is sworn in. And we are still in an economic boom, supposedly. Just wait until the next recession - the debt will soar.
I haven't seen any mention of this in the press. Who cares, you say, it could reach infinity, we don't need to pay it back. Well, if it doesn't matter, then why don't you give me some of it? And why are you asking me to pay taxes if you don't need it?
Update 10/12/16: I'm not going to screenshot it, but the debt went up AGAIN, increasing another $6 billion since 10/6. Intragovernmental holdings are at $5.502 trillion, and total debt is at $19.694 trillion as of Oct. 11. $19.7 trillion, here we come, any day at this rate.
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Mea Culpa
I was predicting something big to happen on September 30, 2016, which obviously didn't happen. And the previous year, I thought something would happen on September 11, 2015. I made a mistake. Maybe the whole premise of this blog is wrong. I think I should go "dormant" through the end of the year and reassess, unless something "big" happens before then. And stipulate that whoever wins the presidency is not a big enough event to qualify. So goodbye for now, and hopefully for good.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
McDonald's on a diet
This is part of my series on eating at fast food restaurants on a diet.
Today I ate at McDonald's:
Double Cheeseburger (hold the bun). I should have ordered it without ketchup but I forgot. I ordered the Double Cheeseburger instead of the McDouble to get the extra slice of cheese. Their website make it easy to figure out calories without the bun. It had 288 calories, 20g fat, 20g protein, and 7g carbs. Cost $1.69.
Grilled Chicken Bacon Ranch Salad with vinaigrette. 330 calories, 14g fat, 42g protein, 9g carbs. The vinaigrette added 38 calories, 2g fat, 5g carbs. Cost $5.19.
Total: 656 calories, 36g fat, 62g protein, 21g carbs. Under my revised system, this is 56 points. Total cost $8.55, including large unsweetened ice tea.
Review: The service was good. I liked the bowl for the salad, very attractive. The meal was cheap and delicious and almost filling, everything you would expect from McDonald's. The bacon added a lot of flavor to the salad. The chicken seemed a little small to have 42 grams of protein. The only thing I might change would be to order the cheeseburger without ketchup, and to use my own olive oil dressing.
Ding-ding-ding. We have a winner! The value proposition is excellent. The salad was perfect, compared to the others which were either carb-heavy (Wendy's, Chick-fil-a) or too sparse (Burger King). I believe this could be eaten every day as part of a weight-loss diet.
There are still more restaurants to review. Let's see if any of them are better than Micky D's.
Today I ate at McDonald's:
Double Cheeseburger (hold the bun). I should have ordered it without ketchup but I forgot. I ordered the Double Cheeseburger instead of the McDouble to get the extra slice of cheese. Their website make it easy to figure out calories without the bun. It had 288 calories, 20g fat, 20g protein, and 7g carbs. Cost $1.69.
Grilled Chicken Bacon Ranch Salad with vinaigrette. 330 calories, 14g fat, 42g protein, 9g carbs. The vinaigrette added 38 calories, 2g fat, 5g carbs. Cost $5.19.
Total: 656 calories, 36g fat, 62g protein, 21g carbs. Under my revised system, this is 56 points. Total cost $8.55, including large unsweetened ice tea.
Review: The service was good. I liked the bowl for the salad, very attractive. The meal was cheap and delicious and almost filling, everything you would expect from McDonald's. The bacon added a lot of flavor to the salad. The chicken seemed a little small to have 42 grams of protein. The only thing I might change would be to order the cheeseburger without ketchup, and to use my own olive oil dressing.
Ding-ding-ding. We have a winner! The value proposition is excellent. The salad was perfect, compared to the others which were either carb-heavy (Wendy's, Chick-fil-a) or too sparse (Burger King). I believe this could be eaten every day as part of a weight-loss diet.
There are still more restaurants to review. Let's see if any of them are better than Micky D's.
Monday, September 26, 2016
The Real Estate Bubble is Popping
In 2006, the real estate bubble popped. 10 years later it is popping again. Here are some markets:
Vancouver B.C.
Aspen
The Hamptons
Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market
Manhattan Condos
Miami
San Francisco - has not popped yet, but employment has peaked and thousands of new units are being built, putting pressure on the rental market
Houston Office Space
Houston New Apartments
Honolulu - has an apartment vacancy rate of 11%
And new home construction nationwide, except the West: "By region, sales fell the most in the Northeast, dropping 34.3 percent. Sales in the South were down 12.3 percent, and they fell 2.4 percent in the Midwest. The West was the only region of the country that saw a sales increase last month, a rise of 8 percent."
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More:
Seattle - rent prices dropped 13% in one month (Aug 2016 to Sept 2016), and the same report says that San Jose dropped 12%, LA dropped 8%, and Boston dropped 7%.
Vancouver B.C.
Aspen
The Hamptons
Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market
Manhattan Condos
Miami
San Francisco - has not popped yet, but employment has peaked and thousands of new units are being built, putting pressure on the rental market
Houston Office Space
Houston New Apartments
Honolulu - has an apartment vacancy rate of 11%
And new home construction nationwide, except the West: "By region, sales fell the most in the Northeast, dropping 34.3 percent. Sales in the South were down 12.3 percent, and they fell 2.4 percent in the Midwest. The West was the only region of the country that saw a sales increase last month, a rise of 8 percent."
==============
More:
Seattle - rent prices dropped 13% in one month (Aug 2016 to Sept 2016), and the same report says that San Jose dropped 12%, LA dropped 8%, and Boston dropped 7%.
Chick Fil-A on a Diet
This is part of a series on how to eat at fast food restaurants when you are on a diet.
Today I review Chick Fil-A. Here is the dinner:
Chick-Fil-A Sandwich, hold the cheese, hold the bun. I ordered the regular instead of the deluxe to reduce the price. I'm not worried about the cheese. 438 calories, 18g fat, 28g protein, 41g carb. The bread was nothing special, and I think there is carbs in the chicken, so I will count the bun at 25g carbs and 100 calories. I added mayo and hot sauce, but not counting those. Cost $3.29.
Spicy Southwest Salad, without tortilla strips, with chile lime vinaigrette. The salad is 435 calories, 19g fat, 34g protein, and 32g carbs. Removing the tortilla strips removes, 72 calories, 4g fat, 8g carbs and 1g protein. The Vinaigrette adds 63 calories, of which 3g are fat and 9g carb. Total: 426 calories, 18g fat, 33g protein, and 33g carbs. Cost $7.69.
Total: 764 calories, 36g fat, 61g protein, 49g carbs. Total with tax $11.91.
Review: Chick-Fil-A is very delicious as expected, and if we were judging only on taste it would dominate. The Chick-Fil-A sandwich is much higher in carbs then I was thinking, and so was the salad, which has corn and beans, and corn syrup, since I had the dressing, but it wouldn't taste the same without it. The salad also seemed a bit skimpy in the chicken area. I think the seeds must add protein. I would recommend switching to the grilled chicken, but that is a step up and now we would be comparing the premium grilled chicken sandwich at Wendy's etc.
Verdict: Sorry, this is a failure. The chicken sandwich, even without the bun, has way too many carbs. And the price is too high. Would I eat there again? Absolutely. But I wouldn't pretend that I was on a diet. The whole purpose of this experiment is to find a cheap protein source and eat a few carbs as well.
Today I review Chick Fil-A. Here is the dinner:
Chick-Fil-A Sandwich, hold the cheese, hold the bun. I ordered the regular instead of the deluxe to reduce the price. I'm not worried about the cheese. 438 calories, 18g fat, 28g protein, 41g carb. The bread was nothing special, and I think there is carbs in the chicken, so I will count the bun at 25g carbs and 100 calories. I added mayo and hot sauce, but not counting those. Cost $3.29.
Spicy Southwest Salad, without tortilla strips, with chile lime vinaigrette. The salad is 435 calories, 19g fat, 34g protein, and 32g carbs. Removing the tortilla strips removes, 72 calories, 4g fat, 8g carbs and 1g protein. The Vinaigrette adds 63 calories, of which 3g are fat and 9g carb. Total: 426 calories, 18g fat, 33g protein, and 33g carbs. Cost $7.69.
Total: 764 calories, 36g fat, 61g protein, 49g carbs. Total with tax $11.91.
Review: Chick-Fil-A is very delicious as expected, and if we were judging only on taste it would dominate. The Chick-Fil-A sandwich is much higher in carbs then I was thinking, and so was the salad, which has corn and beans, and corn syrup, since I had the dressing, but it wouldn't taste the same without it. The salad also seemed a bit skimpy in the chicken area. I think the seeds must add protein. I would recommend switching to the grilled chicken, but that is a step up and now we would be comparing the premium grilled chicken sandwich at Wendy's etc.
Verdict: Sorry, this is a failure. The chicken sandwich, even without the bun, has way too many carbs. And the price is too high. Would I eat there again? Absolutely. But I wouldn't pretend that I was on a diet. The whole purpose of this experiment is to find a cheap protein source and eat a few carbs as well.
The Keto-200 diet
The Keto-200 diet is one that I just invented. I am not a doctor or sports nutritionist, and am only going off of my limited personal knowledge and experience. It is a high-fat, medium protein, low carb diet. It is very simple, flexible, and should be effective for weight loss. It does involve a modified form of calorie counting.
Here is how it works. It uses a point system inspired by Weight Watchers. You get 200 points per day to "spend" on food. (You can try a lower point amount and it may work better, but this is what I am going with). To calculate points, add up the carbs in grams, subtract the fiber in grams and add the protein in grams. Ignore the fat content.
For example, I just ate a protein bar. The label says that it has 190 calories, 12g fat, 14g carbs, 5g fiber, and 10g protein. So this has 19 points (14g carbs - 5g fiber + 10g protein).
My theory is that for weight-loss purposes, carbs and protein are basically equivalent - they both raise insulin and they both have 4 calories per gram. And that eating fat does not make you fat. And, most controversial, and I have NO evidence to back this up, is my claim that, for weight-loss purposes, carbs, in limited amounts, are not harmful, and furthermore, too much protein causes weight gain. I believe that there should be no preference given to protein over carbs, and there is no reason to limit carbs, up to the point limit. So if you like carbs, eat carbs, and if you like protein, eat protein. But don't demonize carbs, and fat is your friend.
I will try it myself and provide further thoughts.
Disclaimer: Pregnant women, kids, and diabetics should not try this without checking with your doctor. It will not work for body-builders, who need more protein.
=================
Update: Protein does raise insulin, but not to the extent of carbs. I think a better number would be 1/4 the amount of protein grams, rounded up. And fat does have a minor effect, although much less than either of these. So maybe use 1/10 the amount of fat in grams, so there is some "cost" to fat.
So, maybe have a limit of 100 points, where a point is a gram of carbs, plus 1/4 the grams of proteins, rounded up, and 1/10 the grams of fat, rounded up. A 2000 calorie ketogenic diet composed of 75% fat by calories, 20% protein, and 5% carbs would have 166g of fat, 100g of protein, and 25g carbs. This would "cost" 67 points. That sounds about right to me.
Update 2: There is a school of thought that once enough carbs are consumed, (and this number is different for each person, but generally is in the range of 20g - 100g), that eating more fat will not cause you to go into ketotis. So just focus on the "antiketogenic" line, which says that protein is antiketogenic at 0.58. I think there should be some preference to protein, although not to the extent of ignoring it, so I will use 0.5 as a ratio, also for simplicity. So revised formula:
A = C + P/2 + F/10
where A is a "point" (meaning antiketogenic), C is net carbs in grams, P is protein in grams, and F is fat in grams.
Update 3: I think 120 "points" is a good maximum number for a day, so I am going to call this the Keto-120 diet. For target macros of 80g protein, 20g carbs, 120g fat, this would be 1,480 calories per day (using 72 points) which is a reasonable target for a diet. I personally believe that carbs don't have to be limited that much, so going to up 60g in carbs would make this 1,640 calories, still a reasonable target. Women should eat less and perhaps use 100 points as a target.
Here is how it works. It uses a point system inspired by Weight Watchers. You get 200 points per day to "spend" on food. (You can try a lower point amount and it may work better, but this is what I am going with). To calculate points, add up the carbs in grams, subtract the fiber in grams and add the protein in grams. Ignore the fat content.
For example, I just ate a protein bar. The label says that it has 190 calories, 12g fat, 14g carbs, 5g fiber, and 10g protein. So this has 19 points (14g carbs - 5g fiber + 10g protein).
My theory is that for weight-loss purposes, carbs and protein are basically equivalent - they both raise insulin and they both have 4 calories per gram. And that eating fat does not make you fat. And, most controversial, and I have NO evidence to back this up, is my claim that, for weight-loss purposes, carbs, in limited amounts, are not harmful, and furthermore, too much protein causes weight gain. I believe that there should be no preference given to protein over carbs, and there is no reason to limit carbs, up to the point limit. So if you like carbs, eat carbs, and if you like protein, eat protein. But don't demonize carbs, and fat is your friend.
I will try it myself and provide further thoughts.
Disclaimer: Pregnant women, kids, and diabetics should not try this without checking with your doctor. It will not work for body-builders, who need more protein.
=================
Update: Protein does raise insulin, but not to the extent of carbs. I think a better number would be 1/4 the amount of protein grams, rounded up. And fat does have a minor effect, although much less than either of these. So maybe use 1/10 the amount of fat in grams, so there is some "cost" to fat.
So, maybe have a limit of 100 points, where a point is a gram of carbs, plus 1/4 the grams of proteins, rounded up, and 1/10 the grams of fat, rounded up. A 2000 calorie ketogenic diet composed of 75% fat by calories, 20% protein, and 5% carbs would have 166g of fat, 100g of protein, and 25g carbs. This would "cost" 67 points. That sounds about right to me.
Update 2: There is a school of thought that once enough carbs are consumed, (and this number is different for each person, but generally is in the range of 20g - 100g), that eating more fat will not cause you to go into ketotis. So just focus on the "antiketogenic" line, which says that protein is antiketogenic at 0.58. I think there should be some preference to protein, although not to the extent of ignoring it, so I will use 0.5 as a ratio, also for simplicity. So revised formula:
A = C + P/2 + F/10
where A is a "point" (meaning antiketogenic), C is net carbs in grams, P is protein in grams, and F is fat in grams.
Update 3: I think 120 "points" is a good maximum number for a day, so I am going to call this the Keto-120 diet. For target macros of 80g protein, 20g carbs, 120g fat, this would be 1,480 calories per day (using 72 points) which is a reasonable target for a diet. I personally believe that carbs don't have to be limited that much, so going to up 60g in carbs would make this 1,640 calories, still a reasonable target. Women should eat less and perhaps use 100 points as a target.
Stock Market Crash this week expected
I would be very happy to be wrong, but I expect a stock market crash of at least 5% this week, probably more, (possibly including panic selling blood-in-the-streets type of stuff) for multiple reasons, some of which I have explained before. If nothing happens by October 4, I will happily eat crow. So let's watch this train wreck in action, shall we? I will update this entry for the next week. These are closing entries.
Thursday, Sept. 22. Dow 18392. S+P 2177
Friday, Sept. 23. Dow 18261 (down 131). S+P 2165 (down 12).
Updates:
Monday, Sept 26. Dow 18095 (down 166). S+P 2146 (down 21).
Tuesday, Sept 27, Dow 18228 (up 133). S+P 2160 (up 14).
Wednesday, Sept 28, Dow 18339 (up 111). S+P 2171 (up 11). This is almost back to where it was last Thursday.
Thursday, Sept 29, Dow 18143 (down 196), S+P 2151 (down 20).
Thursday, Sept. 22. Dow 18392. S+P 2177
Friday, Sept. 23. Dow 18261 (down 131). S+P 2165 (down 12).
Updates:
Monday, Sept 26. Dow 18095 (down 166). S+P 2146 (down 21).
Tuesday, Sept 27, Dow 18228 (up 133). S+P 2160 (up 14).
Wednesday, Sept 28, Dow 18339 (up 111). S+P 2171 (up 11). This is almost back to where it was last Thursday.
Thursday, Sept 29, Dow 18143 (down 196), S+P 2151 (down 20).
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Burger King on a diet
This is part of a series on how to eat at fast food restaurants when you are on a diet.
Today I review Burger King. Here is the dinner:
Double Cheeseburger, hold the ketchup, hold the bun: 350 calories, 18g fat, 20g protein, 27g carb. It was very bready, so I think taking off the bun saves 25g carbs and 100 calories. So call it 250 calories. Cost $1.69.
Bacon Cheddar Ranch Chicken Salad,with grilled chicken, hold the dressing, hold the croutons: 334 calories, 14g fat, 36g protein, 16g carbs . I added my own olive oil, and added salami slices, but I am ignoring that in the calorie count. Cost $5.49.
Total: 584 calories, 32g fat, 56g protein, 18g carbs. This is 49 points. Cost with tax $7.75.
Review: The cheeseburger was very tasty, and had the whopper taste, although it was very small without the bread. Much smaller than the Wendy's Double Stack. I think maybe a Double Stacker would be a better comparison, but that is $2.49, and I am trying to compare hamburgers under $2.00. The grilled chicken was good and warm but the rest of the salad was blah, with just lettuce, a couple of tomato slices and a little cheese. I think most people would use ranch dressing on it, which would add a couple of hundred calories, but I am too smart for that. The service was very slow, even though the restaurant wasn't that busy and I recommend going through the drive-thru which takes priority. There are a ton of menu items, and these are obviously the ugly step-children.
Would I do it again? No, unless I didn't have an option nearby. The service was so slow. Like I said the cheeseburger was very tasty, but it was tiny. The value proposition is just not there. The salad was just basic, but on the plus side it didn't have any extra carbs to trigger my sugar-loving tastebuds. I felt like a hacker, choosing lesser known items and modifying them. Still the meal was filling and it fit within my macros. It is fast food, it was on my diet, and it was tasty. But other options are better.
Today I review Burger King. Here is the dinner:
Double Cheeseburger, hold the ketchup, hold the bun: 350 calories, 18g fat, 20g protein, 27g carb. It was very bready, so I think taking off the bun saves 25g carbs and 100 calories. So call it 250 calories. Cost $1.69.
Bacon Cheddar Ranch Chicken Salad,with grilled chicken, hold the dressing, hold the croutons: 334 calories, 14g fat, 36g protein, 16g carbs . I added my own olive oil, and added salami slices, but I am ignoring that in the calorie count. Cost $5.49.
Total: 584 calories, 32g fat, 56g protein, 18g carbs. This is 49 points. Cost with tax $7.75.
Review: The cheeseburger was very tasty, and had the whopper taste, although it was very small without the bread. Much smaller than the Wendy's Double Stack. I think maybe a Double Stacker would be a better comparison, but that is $2.49, and I am trying to compare hamburgers under $2.00. The grilled chicken was good and warm but the rest of the salad was blah, with just lettuce, a couple of tomato slices and a little cheese. I think most people would use ranch dressing on it, which would add a couple of hundred calories, but I am too smart for that. The service was very slow, even though the restaurant wasn't that busy and I recommend going through the drive-thru which takes priority. There are a ton of menu items, and these are obviously the ugly step-children.
Would I do it again? No, unless I didn't have an option nearby. The service was so slow. Like I said the cheeseburger was very tasty, but it was tiny. The value proposition is just not there. The salad was just basic, but on the plus side it didn't have any extra carbs to trigger my sugar-loving tastebuds. I felt like a hacker, choosing lesser known items and modifying them. Still the meal was filling and it fit within my macros. It is fast food, it was on my diet, and it was tasty. But other options are better.
Comparison of Low Carb Diets, First Phase
Atkins. (Induction phase). Under 20 grams of carbs per day for 2 weeks. Eat high-fat, high-protein, with low-carb vegetables like leafy greens. This kick-starts the weight loss.
Comment: This diet claims that you can eat as much protein and fat as you want on the first phase. And that eating low carb will naturally put you in ketosis. In my opinion, this will not work. Instead, you should get into ketosis first by fasting, and then start the diet. And limit the total calories consumed to below TDEE. I think it is deceptive the way it is described.
Dukan. (Attack phase). Eat unlimited lean meat, cottage cheese and eggs. Supplement with 1.5 teaspoons of oat bran. The phase can last up to 7 days.
Comment: I think you need to eat more fat to get into ketosis. Also I think you should limit the total calories, although it takes a lot of lean meat to meet the calories requirements.
South Beach Diet (Phase 1). I would call this a medium protein, medium fat, medium carb diet. It only allows certain kinds of lean meat, (for example, no beef jerky or bacon), and it discourages saturated fat, so it allows only low fat cheese. It does not limit carbs, but allows only some, (for example, no potatoes). It does have recommended serving sizes, but allows for more food if needed. Phase 1 lasts 14 days.
Comment: This seems kind of like the Dukan diet, with its emphasis on lean meat, although it allows more veggies on phase 1, and doesn't require the oat bran.
Banting by Prof. Tim Noakes. This is a high-fat, medium protein, low carb diet. It is lower protein than Atkins. Excludes fruit. Foods are divided into the Green List (proteins and fat, all you can eat), Orange List (fruits and some vegetables, limit the amount you eat to 50g per day), and Red List (high carb foods like bread and potatoes, totally avoid). It doesn't have phases.
Comment: I still think you have to look at calories, and I don't see bread and potatoes as that harmful in limited quantities.
Harcombe (Phase 1). Eat unlimited amounts of meat, fish, some vegetables, and some grains. Avoid cheese and try to limit saturated fat. Last up to 5 days.
Comment: Similar to above. I don't see the need to avoid saturated fat. 5 days isn't long enough to do anything.
Paleo. It is high in fat, moderate in protein and low in carbs. Says to eat "good amounts" of animal protein. Recommends coconut oil, butter and olive oil. Allows some fruits and nuts. Excludes all grains and dairy, except for butter and cream. It doesn't have phases, it is a lifestyle.
Comment: The whole premise of the diet is faulty, since this is not what paleolithic man ate. It is not bad, although I don't see the need to totally avoid bread and cheese, especially on later phases, which this doesn't have.
Maker's Diet (Phase 1). Certain kinds of organic meat, fish, poultry, eggs. No mention of amount to eat. The only dairy allowed is goat and sheep cheese, and goat milk yogurt. No bread or grains. Lasts two weeks.
Comment: It seems like this is primarily spiritual. I find it kind of weird that it limits the food to organic, which are more expensive.
Eat Fat Get Thin. This is a 21 day plan of only high-quality fat, 4 to 6 ounces of protein for each meal, and non-starchy vegetables. Encourages vegetables with a lot of fiber, like broccoli, asparagus, and green beans.
Comment: Sounds good, although lighten up on the veggies, dude.
Conclusion: All of these are low carb diets and should result in weight loss, if the quantities eaten are limited. I see minor problems with all of them, but we have a clear winner.
The Eat Fat Get Thin diet by Dr. Mark Hyman is the clear winner of the ones that I reviewed. I like the time-frame (21 days is the perfect amount for a diet), and I like the fact that it limits protein. I also like the Daniel Plan diet, which is similar. I may try one of these two sometime.
Comment: This diet claims that you can eat as much protein and fat as you want on the first phase. And that eating low carb will naturally put you in ketosis. In my opinion, this will not work. Instead, you should get into ketosis first by fasting, and then start the diet. And limit the total calories consumed to below TDEE. I think it is deceptive the way it is described.
Dukan. (Attack phase). Eat unlimited lean meat, cottage cheese and eggs. Supplement with 1.5 teaspoons of oat bran. The phase can last up to 7 days.
Comment: I think you need to eat more fat to get into ketosis. Also I think you should limit the total calories, although it takes a lot of lean meat to meet the calories requirements.
South Beach Diet (Phase 1). I would call this a medium protein, medium fat, medium carb diet. It only allows certain kinds of lean meat, (for example, no beef jerky or bacon), and it discourages saturated fat, so it allows only low fat cheese. It does not limit carbs, but allows only some, (for example, no potatoes). It does have recommended serving sizes, but allows for more food if needed. Phase 1 lasts 14 days.
Comment: This seems kind of like the Dukan diet, with its emphasis on lean meat, although it allows more veggies on phase 1, and doesn't require the oat bran.
Banting by Prof. Tim Noakes. This is a high-fat, medium protein, low carb diet. It is lower protein than Atkins. Excludes fruit. Foods are divided into the Green List (proteins and fat, all you can eat), Orange List (fruits and some vegetables, limit the amount you eat to 50g per day), and Red List (high carb foods like bread and potatoes, totally avoid). It doesn't have phases.
Comment: I still think you have to look at calories, and I don't see bread and potatoes as that harmful in limited quantities.
Harcombe (Phase 1). Eat unlimited amounts of meat, fish, some vegetables, and some grains. Avoid cheese and try to limit saturated fat. Last up to 5 days.
Comment: Similar to above. I don't see the need to avoid saturated fat. 5 days isn't long enough to do anything.
Paleo. It is high in fat, moderate in protein and low in carbs. Says to eat "good amounts" of animal protein. Recommends coconut oil, butter and olive oil. Allows some fruits and nuts. Excludes all grains and dairy, except for butter and cream. It doesn't have phases, it is a lifestyle.
Comment: The whole premise of the diet is faulty, since this is not what paleolithic man ate. It is not bad, although I don't see the need to totally avoid bread and cheese, especially on later phases, which this doesn't have.
Maker's Diet (Phase 1). Certain kinds of organic meat, fish, poultry, eggs. No mention of amount to eat. The only dairy allowed is goat and sheep cheese, and goat milk yogurt. No bread or grains. Lasts two weeks.
Comment: It seems like this is primarily spiritual. I find it kind of weird that it limits the food to organic, which are more expensive.
Eat Fat Get Thin. This is a 21 day plan of only high-quality fat, 4 to 6 ounces of protein for each meal, and non-starchy vegetables. Encourages vegetables with a lot of fiber, like broccoli, asparagus, and green beans.
Comment: Sounds good, although lighten up on the veggies, dude.
Conclusion: All of these are low carb diets and should result in weight loss, if the quantities eaten are limited. I see minor problems with all of them, but we have a clear winner.
The Eat Fat Get Thin diet by Dr. Mark Hyman is the clear winner of the ones that I reviewed. I like the time-frame (21 days is the perfect amount for a diet), and I like the fact that it limits protein. I also like the Daniel Plan diet, which is similar. I may try one of these two sometime.
Friday, September 23, 2016
Presidential Cycle Septembers
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-23/state-street-move-over-zero-hedge-there-new-bear-town
Supposedly, this came from Bloomberg, but I can't find the original. I don't know what the numbers mean on the right and left hand sides (percents, percentiles, indexes?). It appears that they are predicting an IMMINENT (within one week) stock market crash (at least 5%). We will know very soon.
Quote: "risk assets should get destroyed next week" (statement as of 9/23/16).
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Government Shutdown October 1
A behind-the-scenes congressional battle to avoid a U.S. government shutdown broke into public view on Thursday when Republicans produced a stop-gap funding bill that Democrats immediately rejected.
The federal fiscal year ends on Sept. 30 and Congress must pass a spending measure by then to keep the government open.
--http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-funding-idUSKCN11S2DF
I have believed for months that there may be a stock market crash or some kind of economic crisis on September 30. However, I personally believed that the odds of that were fairly low, maybe 10%. Now I believe that the odds are 50%. We will know very soon.
--http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-funding-idUSKCN11S2DF
I have believed for months that there may be a stock market crash or some kind of economic crisis on September 30. However, I personally believed that the odds of that were fairly low, maybe 10%. Now I believe that the odds are 50%. We will know very soon.
Double Cheeseburger and Chicken Salad for dinner
I think that a small double cheeseburger and premium salad at a fast food restaurant is the perfect dinner.
Here is what you get at Wendy's:
Double Stack (hold the bun): 390 calories, 21g fat, 25g protein, 25g carbs. No ketchup. Taking off the bun saves about 20g of carbs/80 calories, so call it 310 calories. Cost $1.89.
Power Mediterranean Chick Salad: 450 calories, 15g fat, 40g protein, 42g carbs. No croutons, no dressing. The Balsamic Light Vinaigrette dressing has 6g of carbs from high fructose corn syrup, so don't use it. It is unclear if the calorie count includes the dressing. Cost $6.69.
Total: 760 calories, 36g fat, 65g protein, 47g carbs. Cost with tax $9.27.
Verdict: delicious and filling, although I am triggered by the carbs and that makes me still hungry. Would do again.
Next up: McDonald's, Burger King, Chick-fil-a, Subway, Carl's Jr., Sonic, Good Times, Jack in the Box, Smashburger, Noodles & Co.
Update: I have changed my mind. The salad has too many carbs, even without the dressing. This is not a good choice for a diet. All of their salads have the same problem, even the side salads. I guess you could take off the crouton and not have the dressing. But then we would have to recompare all the other restaurants side salads.
Here is what you get at Wendy's:
Double Stack (hold the bun): 390 calories, 21g fat, 25g protein, 25g carbs. No ketchup. Taking off the bun saves about 20g of carbs/80 calories, so call it 310 calories. Cost $1.89.
Power Mediterranean Chick Salad: 450 calories, 15g fat, 40g protein, 42g carbs. No croutons, no dressing. The Balsamic Light Vinaigrette dressing has 6g of carbs from high fructose corn syrup, so don't use it. It is unclear if the calorie count includes the dressing. Cost $6.69.
Total: 760 calories, 36g fat, 65g protein, 47g carbs. Cost with tax $9.27.
Verdict: delicious and filling, although I am triggered by the carbs and that makes me still hungry. Would do again.
Next up: McDonald's, Burger King, Chick-fil-a, Subway, Carl's Jr., Sonic, Good Times, Jack in the Box, Smashburger, Noodles & Co.
Update: I have changed my mind. The salad has too many carbs, even without the dressing. This is not a good choice for a diet. All of their salads have the same problem, even the side salads. I guess you could take off the crouton and not have the dressing. But then we would have to recompare all the other restaurants side salads.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Have intragovernmental holdings peaked?
Source: http://treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current
Check this out. Intergovernmental Holdings peaked on 6/30/2016 at $5.448 trillion. They have never been as high since. So this might be their all-time high.
What does this mean? This includes the Social Security trust fund and it means that Social Security is running at a current deficit now. The intergovernmental holdings (IH) increases with FICA taxes paid in and interest accrued on the national debt, and it decreases with benefits paid out. So more benefits are being paid out than taxes and interest are being paid in. So the Social Security bubble, that goes all the way back to FDR, just popped a couple of months ago.
We knew that it was a Ponzi scheme, but we expected it to last a few years longer. Of course, it isn't going down that much, and the current receipients have nothing to worry about, but in 20 years or so (2034 is the latest estimate), the SS trust fund will be totally depleted and benefits will be cut about 20%. Unless Congress does something, which it probably will.
I'm more concerned about the effect this will have on Debt Held By the Public (DHBTP). The intergovernmental holdings was used to partially finance the national debt. Now this goes into reverse. Instead DHBTP will go up even faster than the federal deficit, to make up for the IH drawdown. Indeed, since the peak on 6/30/16, the DHBTP has gone up $201 billion (from $13.932 T to $14.133 T). That is getting close to $100 billion per month and economy is supposedly doing well. Just wait until the next recession starts and the debt will skyrocket again.
Related thought. When was the last month in which the DHBTP did not increase at least $100 billion? That would be July 2016, when it only increased $66 billion. Maybe September 2016 will break the pattern. But the day is coming, and it may not be too far away, when the debt increases at least that amount every single month into infinity.
Proposed Subway Diet
It is very hard to do a diet at Subway, because they have so much bread and because of the discount for getting a footlong. And because their salads are so bad and overpriced. (Note that I consider that a footlong to be the equivalent to 4 slices of bread). But here is an attempt:
Breakfast: Either skip and just have a slice of bread with protein and cheese, or have a footlong egg and cheese and throw away 3/4ths of the bread (or save it for later). (Footlong with 1/4 bread is about 600 calories).
Lunch: order a 6-inch from the fresh-fit menu and eat only 1/2 the bread (Fresh fit, six inch with 1/2 bread is about 250 calories). Or if you had a small breakfast, have a footlong and throw away 3/4ths of the bread. No chips.
Snack: Eat some bread that you saved from before.
Dinner: Order a footlong and only eat 1/4 the bread. Don't order the tuna, because it has way too much mayo in it. Add chips and a diet soda.
After-dinner treat: more bread (sorry that's what you get if you choose this). Or maybe a cookie instead.
I would be willing to try it and see if it works.
Breakfast: Either skip and just have a slice of bread with protein and cheese, or have a footlong egg and cheese and throw away 3/4ths of the bread (or save it for later). (Footlong with 1/4 bread is about 600 calories).
Lunch: order a 6-inch from the fresh-fit menu and eat only 1/2 the bread (Fresh fit, six inch with 1/2 bread is about 250 calories). Or if you had a small breakfast, have a footlong and throw away 3/4ths of the bread. No chips.
Snack: Eat some bread that you saved from before.
Dinner: Order a footlong and only eat 1/4 the bread. Don't order the tuna, because it has way too much mayo in it. Add chips and a diet soda.
After-dinner treat: more bread (sorry that's what you get if you choose this). Or maybe a cookie instead.
I would be willing to try it and see if it works.
Proposed McDonald's Diet
I think McDonald's could fit very well into a weight-loss plan. Here is what I propose.
Breakfast: Egg McMuffin or Sausage McMuffin and coffee. Only eat one of the muffin slices and save the other one for later. Alternative: big breakfast, but only eat half the biscuit.
Lunch: Grilled Chicken or Filet-o-Fish, side salad (low-calorie dressing) and diet soda. Only eat one of the slices of bread. Could possibly have two sandwiches, or a full salad (watch the dressing) but still only one slice of bread total.
Tea: Fruit - apple slices or cuties, a slice of bread, and unsweetened ice tea.
Dinner: McDouble or Triple Cheeseburger, no ketchup, without the bread, side salad, and a small french fry (no ketchup) and diet soda. Add a can of green beans (not on the menu) or serving of broccoli. Could possibly have two burgers or a even a double quarter pounder with cheese (no bread).
Treat: Ice-cream cone or hot caramel sundae or small shake or frappacino. Or Fruit n Yogurt parfait. Or a glass of wine.
I haven't added it up, but I think its about 1500 calories, depending on the treat. I would like to try it sometime.
Update: One skinny woman ate every meal at McDonalds for a week and didn't gain a pound. Here is the Day 1 diet:
Breakfast: Coffee, Egg White McMuffin
Lunch: Grilled Chicken Snack Wrap, Side Salad with Ranch
Dinner: 1 Sausage Burrito
Breakfast: Egg McMuffin or Sausage McMuffin and coffee. Only eat one of the muffin slices and save the other one for later. Alternative: big breakfast, but only eat half the biscuit.
Lunch: Grilled Chicken or Filet-o-Fish, side salad (low-calorie dressing) and diet soda. Only eat one of the slices of bread. Could possibly have two sandwiches, or a full salad (watch the dressing) but still only one slice of bread total.
Tea: Fruit - apple slices or cuties, a slice of bread, and unsweetened ice tea.
Dinner: McDouble or Triple Cheeseburger, no ketchup, without the bread, side salad, and a small french fry (no ketchup) and diet soda. Add a can of green beans (not on the menu) or serving of broccoli. Could possibly have two burgers or a even a double quarter pounder with cheese (no bread).
Treat: Ice-cream cone or hot caramel sundae or small shake or frappacino. Or Fruit n Yogurt parfait. Or a glass of wine.
I haven't added it up, but I think its about 1500 calories, depending on the treat. I would like to try it sometime.
Update: One skinny woman ate every meal at McDonalds for a week and didn't gain a pound. Here is the Day 1 diet:
Breakfast: Coffee, Egg White McMuffin
Lunch: Grilled Chicken Snack Wrap, Side Salad with Ranch
Dinner: 1 Sausage Burrito
Proposed modification of the Military Diet
I have tried the military diet three times and failed each time and didn't experience weight loss. There are some things I like about it though. I think it could be changed slightly and used for long-term weight loss. Here is what I would change. I would make a standard breakfast, lunch and dinner menu and allow for modifications.
Breakfast should be one slice of toast plus a protein (peanut butter, egg, or small amount of meat) and some cheese or butter. I'm not a fan of fruit for breakfast, but in small amounts it is ok. And of course coffee or tea if desired.
Lunch should be one slice of toast or equivalent in crackers plus tuna (or equivalent cottage cheese). Day 3 doesn't have enough food for lunch. I like tuna every day for lunch.
Snack ("tea") should be a small fruit (apple, banana, grapefruit) with possibly some additional carbs (cookie or biscuit). This can be combined with dinner.
Dinner should be simple. Meat (hot dogs, small steak, hamburger, chicken breast, etc., as much as 8 oz if desired), and veggies - green beans, broccoli, salad, etc. No bread or pasta or potatoes.
After-dinner treat: small ice cream, glass of wine, or yogurt. Can be combined with dinner.
I think this could be followed long-term, and even with adding a little more to it, it is still less than 1500 calories.
Breakfast should be one slice of toast plus a protein (peanut butter, egg, or small amount of meat) and some cheese or butter. I'm not a fan of fruit for breakfast, but in small amounts it is ok. And of course coffee or tea if desired.
Lunch should be one slice of toast or equivalent in crackers plus tuna (or equivalent cottage cheese). Day 3 doesn't have enough food for lunch. I like tuna every day for lunch.
Snack ("tea") should be a small fruit (apple, banana, grapefruit) with possibly some additional carbs (cookie or biscuit). This can be combined with dinner.
Dinner should be simple. Meat (hot dogs, small steak, hamburger, chicken breast, etc., as much as 8 oz if desired), and veggies - green beans, broccoli, salad, etc. No bread or pasta or potatoes.
After-dinner treat: small ice cream, glass of wine, or yogurt. Can be combined with dinner.
I think this could be followed long-term, and even with adding a little more to it, it is still less than 1500 calories.
The Drinking Man's Diet
This is another low-carb diet that predates Atkins and also involves lots of alcohol. It was written by Robert Cameron in 1964. It is one that Frank Sinatra or Dean Martin might have been on. Sample menu:
It was very popular in the 1960's and sold 2.4 million copies. Note that it bans beer, which is much higher in carbs than stronger drinks (rum, whisky, gin, vodka, brandy, etc).
• Breakfast: Ham or 2 slices of bacon, a fried or boiled egg, coffee or tea, ¼ of cantaloupe or 4 ounces of tomato juice.
• Lunch: Broiled fish, steak, or chicken, a dry martini or whisky with soda, green beans or asparagus, lettuce and tomato salad, coffee or tea, and 2 glasses of dry wine.
• Dinner: Coffee or tea, shrimp cocktail, martini or highballs, 2 stalks of celery stuffed with pate, greens beans, 1 cup of Brussel sprouts, a half cup of cauliflower, 2 glasses of dry wine, ½ an avocado with French dressing, cheese: Swiss, cheddar, camembert, or Roquefort, and a serving of lamb, pork, beef, or veal chicken.
Source: http://www.dietsinreview.com/diets/the-drinking-mans-diet/It was very popular in the 1960's and sold 2.4 million copies. Note that it bans beer, which is much higher in carbs than stronger drinks (rum, whisky, gin, vodka, brandy, etc).
The Banting Diet
This is the original low-carb diet, by William Banting (1796-1878).
Source: http://www.lowcarb.ca/corpulence/corpulence_9.html
I am very intrigued. Mr Banting lost 50 lbs on it over the course of a year. Note that he does eat some carbs (biscuit or toast for breakfast, vegetables and toast and alcohol for dinner, fruit and rusk (biscuit) for tea, alcohol for supper and nightcap. He evidently was a heavy drinker. He cuts out most sugar, starch, beer, milk, and butter. His supper seems very sparse, with only meat and wine. I may try a modified version of it.
For breakfast, at 9.0 A.M., I take five to six ounces of either beef mutton, kidneys, broiled fish, bacon, or cold meat of any kind except pork or veal; a large cup of tea or coffee (without milk or sugar), a little biscuit, or one ounce of dry toast; making together six ounces solid, nine liquid.
For dinner, at 2.0 P.M., Five or six ounces of any fish except salmon, herrings, or eels, any meat except pork or veal, any vegetable except potato, parsnip, beetroot, turnip, or carrot, one ounce of dry toast, fruit out of a pudding not sweetened any kind of poultry or game, and two or three glasses of good claret, sherry, or Madeira— Champagne, port, and beer forbidden; making together ten to twelve ounces solid, and ten liquid.
For tea, at 6.0 P.M., Two or three ounces of cooked fruit, a rusk or two, and a cup of tea without milk or sugar; making two to four ounces solid, nine liquid.
For supper, at 9.0 P.M. Three or four ounces of meat or fish, similar to dinner, with a glass or two of claret or sherry and water; making four ounces solid and seven liquid.
For nightcap, if required, A tumbler of grog—(gin, whisky, or brandy, without sugar)—or a glass or two of claret or sherry.
Source: http://www.lowcarb.ca/corpulence/corpulence_9.html
I am very intrigued. Mr Banting lost 50 lbs on it over the course of a year. Note that he does eat some carbs (biscuit or toast for breakfast, vegetables and toast and alcohol for dinner, fruit and rusk (biscuit) for tea, alcohol for supper and nightcap. He evidently was a heavy drinker. He cuts out most sugar, starch, beer, milk, and butter. His supper seems very sparse, with only meat and wine. I may try a modified version of it.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Bernanke is an idiot
Read: Bernanke Urges Use Of Negative Rates When Next Recession Strikes
In theory, lower rates stimulate the economy. Let's say that a firm has a potential investment that will return 10% and it can borrow at 5%. That may not be enough profit margin to make it worthwhile, considering the risk. But if it can borrow at 2%, now it may make sense to do the investment.
In theory, lower rates stimulate the economy. Let's say that a firm has a potential investment that will return 10% and it can borrow at 5%. That may not be enough profit margin to make it worthwhile, considering the risk. But if it can borrow at 2%, now it may make sense to do the investment.
Friday, September 2, 2016
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Day 1 of the Military Diet
The essence of day one is a new beginning. You are starting a new project, and it only last 3 days. To kickstart it you are eating foods that you don't eat on the next 2 days.
Grapefruit is low in calories, so go ahead and eat a whole one. (I don't know what you would do with the other half - stick it in the fridge for three days?). Don't add sugar of course. Grapefruit has fiber and helps lower insulin. But this is the only day you will eat it.
This is the only day you will eat peanut butter. Peanut butter should be eaten sparingly, since it has both fat and carbs, but it is a good transition food and it is filling.
This is also the only day where you will eat a lot of toast. The plan calls for 1 slice at breakfast and 1 slice at lunch but I usually have 2 slices at breakfast.
So congratulations on the new start! No snacking allowed, and only drink water, coffee or tea. Let's do this!
Grapefruit is low in calories, so go ahead and eat a whole one. (I don't know what you would do with the other half - stick it in the fridge for three days?). Don't add sugar of course. Grapefruit has fiber and helps lower insulin. But this is the only day you will eat it.
This is the only day you will eat peanut butter. Peanut butter should be eaten sparingly, since it has both fat and carbs, but it is a good transition food and it is filling.
This is also the only day where you will eat a lot of toast. The plan calls for 1 slice at breakfast and 1 slice at lunch but I usually have 2 slices at breakfast.
So congratulations on the new start! No snacking allowed, and only drink water, coffee or tea. Let's do this!
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Military Diet Video
Interesting video by a woman with a British accent. It has peas and pretzels on the menu, which makes this another variation.
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Another variation
| First Day |
| Breakfast | Lunch | Dinner |
| 1/2 Grapefruit or Juice | 1/2 cup Tuna | 2 Slices (3 oz.) of any Meat |
| 1 Slice of toast | 1 Slice Toast | 1 cup Green Beans |
| 1 tbsp. Peanut Butter | Black Coffee or Tea | 1 cup Carrots or Beets |
| Black Coffee or Tea | 1 small Apple | |
| 1 cup Vanilla Ice Cream |
| Second Day |
| Breakfast | Lunch | Dinner |
| 1 hard-boiled Egg | 1 cup Cottage Cheese | 2 Wieners |
| 1 Slice of toast | or 1/2 cup Tuna | 1 cup Cabbage or Broccoli |
| 1/2 Banana | 5 Saltine Crackers | 1/2 cup Carrots |
| Black Coffee or Tea | or Turnip Greens | |
| 1/2 Banana | ||
| 1 cup Vanilla Ice Cream |
| Third Day |
| Breakfast | Lunch | Dinner |
| 1 hard-boiled Egg | 1 slice Cheddar Cheese | 1 cup Tuna |
| 1 Slice of toast | 5 Saltine Crackers | 1 cup Carrots or Beets |
| Black Coffee or Tea | 1 small Apple | 1 cupGreen Beans |
| Black Coffee or Tea | or Cauliflower | |
| 1 cup Cantaloupe | ||
| or 1 small Apple | ||
| 1/2 cup Vanilla Ice Cream |
Source: http://www.cyber-shack.net/diet/3%20day%20diet.html
The Cleveland Clinic Diet
Here is the meal plan:
Day One:
Breakfast: Black coffee, water, or tea; half of a grapefruit or pink grapefruit juice; and one slice of toast with 1 or 2 tbl of peanut butter
Lunch: Black coffee, water, or tea; 1/2 cup of water-packed tuna; and one slice of dry toast
Dinner: Black coffee, water, or tea; 3 oz lean meat; 1 cup green beans; 1 cup beets; 1 cup vanilla ice cream; and one small apple
Day Two:
Breakfast: Black coffee, water, or tea; one egg, any style; one banana (some versions say 1/2 banana); and one slice of dry toast
Lunch: Black coffee, water, or tea; 1 cup of cottage cheese; and five saltine crackers
Dinner: Black coffee, water, or tea; two hot dogs; 1/2 cup carrots; 1 cup broccoli (or cabbage); one banana (some versions say 1/2 banana); and 1/2 cup vanilla ice cream
Day Three:
Breakfast: Black coffee, water, or tea; five saltine crackers; one egg (or one slice cheddar cheese); and one 4-oz glass of apple juice
Lunch: Black coffee, water, or tea; one hard-boiled egg; one small apple; and one slice of dry toast
Dinner: Black coffee, water, or tea; 1 cup tuna, chicken, or turkey; 1 cup cauliflower or green beans; 1 cup beets; 1 cup cantaloupe or one small apple; and 1/2 cup vanilla ice cream
Source: http://www.diet.com/g/cleveland-clinic-3day-diet
This is very similar, but not identical to the military diet. It has more calories on day 3.
Day One:
Breakfast: Black coffee, water, or tea; half of a grapefruit or pink grapefruit juice; and one slice of toast with 1 or 2 tbl of peanut butter
Lunch: Black coffee, water, or tea; 1/2 cup of water-packed tuna; and one slice of dry toast
Dinner: Black coffee, water, or tea; 3 oz lean meat; 1 cup green beans; 1 cup beets; 1 cup vanilla ice cream; and one small apple
Day Two:
Breakfast: Black coffee, water, or tea; one egg, any style; one banana (some versions say 1/2 banana); and one slice of dry toast
Lunch: Black coffee, water, or tea; 1 cup of cottage cheese; and five saltine crackers
Dinner: Black coffee, water, or tea; two hot dogs; 1/2 cup carrots; 1 cup broccoli (or cabbage); one banana (some versions say 1/2 banana); and 1/2 cup vanilla ice cream
Day Three:
Breakfast: Black coffee, water, or tea; five saltine crackers; one egg (or one slice cheddar cheese); and one 4-oz glass of apple juice
Lunch: Black coffee, water, or tea; one hard-boiled egg; one small apple; and one slice of dry toast
Dinner: Black coffee, water, or tea; 1 cup tuna, chicken, or turkey; 1 cup cauliflower or green beans; 1 cup beets; 1 cup cantaloupe or one small apple; and 1/2 cup vanilla ice cream
Source: http://www.diet.com/g/cleveland-clinic-3day-diet
This is very similar, but not identical to the military diet. It has more calories on day 3.
CBO Long-Term Outlook
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51908-2016_Outlook_Update_OneCol.pdf
This is worth a perusal. In my opinion, the deficit can be pretty much ignored until it reaches $800 billion per year. According to this document, that will happen in 2021, when the deficit hits $806 billion. It starts increasing rapidly after that.
Of course, this assumes that no recession will ever happen again. If a recession hits later this year or next like I expect, then the deficit will start soaring sooner than that.
This is worth a perusal. In my opinion, the deficit can be pretty much ignored until it reaches $800 billion per year. According to this document, that will happen in 2021, when the deficit hits $806 billion. It starts increasing rapidly after that.
Of course, this assumes that no recession will ever happen again. If a recession hits later this year or next like I expect, then the deficit will start soaring sooner than that.
Sunday, August 21, 2016
The 3 Day Diet
The 3 Day Diet (http://www.diet-blog.com/15/3-day-diet.php) is a variation of the Military Diet. It is a rival, with a slightly different menu.
On Day 1 dinner it calls for 1 cup of carrots instead of 1/2 banana.
Day 2 breakfast calls for 1 banana instead of 1/2 banana.
Day 2 lunch calls for 2% cottage cheese instead of 4% cottage cheese and 7 crackers instead of 5.
Day 2 dinner calls for 1 banana instead of 1/2 banana.
Day 3 dinner calls for 1 cup carrots, 1 cup cauliflower, 1 cup melon,1/2 cup ice cream and no banana, vs 1/2 banana and 1 cup ice cream.
Other than that, they are the SAME EXACT diet.
I wonder which one came first? Ohh, historical development.
On Day 1 dinner it calls for 1 cup of carrots instead of 1/2 banana.
Day 2 breakfast calls for 1 banana instead of 1/2 banana.
Day 2 lunch calls for 2% cottage cheese instead of 4% cottage cheese and 7 crackers instead of 5.
Day 2 dinner calls for 1 banana instead of 1/2 banana.
Day 3 dinner calls for 1 cup carrots, 1 cup cauliflower, 1 cup melon,1/2 cup ice cream and no banana, vs 1/2 banana and 1 cup ice cream.
Other than that, they are the SAME EXACT diet.
I wonder which one came first? Ohh, historical development.
The Military Diet
I hate diets, but I am impressed with this one for several reasons. It is short, only three days, it has some interesting foods on there (cheese, hot dogs, ice cream), it is very strict (you have to follow it exactly), it actually has a fairly wide variety of foods on it, no one knows where it came from, it has several variations, and a lot of people have commented on it.
There are two "official" websites, which are not connected, but which have the SAME EXACT menu.
http://themilitarydiet.com/
http://www.3daymilitarydiet.net/
I may be temporarily turning this blog into a military diet blog. I see some profound or at least interesting philosophy behind it.
=====================================================
Article 1: The Military Diet Cult
Going on a fad diet is similar in some ways to joining a religion. You are significantly changing your behavior based on adopting a belief system. Most diets have a founder, usually Doctor someone, and try to show the "scientific" basis for the diet. You can buy the bible of the diet, "Dr. Atkins' New Diet Revolution", "The South Beach Diet" by Dr. Agatston, "The Zone Diet" by Dr Barry Sears", etc.
No one knows where the Military Diet came from or who named it that. It certainly has nothing to do with the military. It is probably because it is so strict, like joining boot camp. I personally think it came from Moses, who got it from God on Mt. Sinai.
So I think it is like a cult. But it is only for three days! (Unlike the Atkins diet religion, which is for life). And the adherents think they have discovered a new truth which they are propagating.
So join the Military Diet cult today! You have nothing to lose but your weight (up to 10 lbs).
=====================================================
Update: Here is yet another "official" website, with the same exact menu plan.
https://militarydiet.co/
There are two "official" websites, which are not connected, but which have the SAME EXACT menu.
http://themilitarydiet.com/
http://www.3daymilitarydiet.net/
I may be temporarily turning this blog into a military diet blog. I see some profound or at least interesting philosophy behind it.
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Article 1: The Military Diet Cult
Going on a fad diet is similar in some ways to joining a religion. You are significantly changing your behavior based on adopting a belief system. Most diets have a founder, usually Doctor someone, and try to show the "scientific" basis for the diet. You can buy the bible of the diet, "Dr. Atkins' New Diet Revolution", "The South Beach Diet" by Dr. Agatston, "The Zone Diet" by Dr Barry Sears", etc.
No one knows where the Military Diet came from or who named it that. It certainly has nothing to do with the military. It is probably because it is so strict, like joining boot camp. I personally think it came from Moses, who got it from God on Mt. Sinai.
So I think it is like a cult. But it is only for three days! (Unlike the Atkins diet religion, which is for life). And the adherents think they have discovered a new truth which they are propagating.
So join the Military Diet cult today! You have nothing to lose but your weight (up to 10 lbs).
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Update: Here is yet another "official" website, with the same exact menu plan.
https://militarydiet.co/
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Social Security will be bankrupt in 10 years
Read http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/funny-money-accounting-why-social-security-will-be-bankrupt-in-10-years/
Note: I don't necessarily agree with his analysis, since the official report says that it is good until 2034, but it is worth a read. The author says that GDP growth and SS tax revenue will be much lower than projected.
Note: I don't necessarily agree with his analysis, since the official report says that it is good until 2034, but it is worth a read. The author says that GDP growth and SS tax revenue will be much lower than projected.
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Monday, August 15, 2016
Saturday, August 13, 2016
$14 trillion public debt
| 08/11/2016 | 14,012,831,105,933.15 |
Who cares, right? Well if it doesn't matter, why don't we abolish taxes and just rack up the debt? Hmm.
Update:
The Debt Held by the Public hit $7 trillion on 5/28/2009. So the doubling period is just over 7 years.
Thursday, August 4, 2016
Chinese companies reluctantly control Bitcoin
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-china.html
Mr. Wu and the other mining pool operators in China have often seemed somewhat surprised, and even unhappy, that their investments have given them decision-making power within the Bitcoin network. “Miners are the hardware guys. Why are you asking us about software?” is the line that Mr. Ng said he often hears from miners.
Mr. Wu and the other mining pool operators in China have often seemed somewhat surprised, and even unhappy, that their investments have given them decision-making power within the Bitcoin network. “Miners are the hardware guys. Why are you asking us about software?” is the line that Mr. Ng said he often hears from miners.
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Thursday, July 28, 2016
Friday, July 22, 2016
Can we forgive and erase all debt in the world today?
I’ve pondered on this questions for years. Before entering in the world of banking & payments, every time I tried discussing this topic with others who were more educated than me, I was waived off, with a brush of the hand, as I don’t get it how the financial system runs!
I keep asking myself, if I can forgive debt that others owe me and vice versa, why can’t society in itself forgive debt and start with a clean slate.
I was obsessed with this. Truth be told, still am.
https://blog.faisalkhan.com/erase-all-debt-9f10ce75c7fd
https://blog.faisalkhan.com/erase-all-debt-9f10ce75c7fd
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Saturday, July 16, 2016
The third path projection of the CBO
The CBO just issued their latest Long-Term Budget Outlook. In this, they do projections of the budget all the way through 2046.
The default baseline shows an annual budget deficit of 8.8% of GDP and net interest spending of 5.8% of gdp (up from today's 1.4%). The category of "other noninterest spending" (which includes all spending, including defense, except for interest, social security, and health care programs) is 7.3% of gdp, down from today's 9.2% of gdp. Also, it shows federal debt held by the public to be 141% of gdp.
They discuss three alternative paths to the baseline. The first two paths show what would happen if the ten-year deficits were reduced by $2 trillion and $4 trillion respectively. The third path is the interesting one. It shows what would happen if the ten-year budget deficit was increased by $2 trillion. Since a recession is guaranteed in the next ten years (and probably within the next year) and since politicians love the "free lunch", we can expect the third path to be the most likely one.
In the third path in 2046, the annual budget deficit will be 13% of gdp, of which net interest spending will be 8% of gdp. And federal debt held by the public will be 193% of gdp.
From the report: In addition to its effects on output, income, and interest rates, the third path would also bring about many of the other consequences associated with high and rising federal debt that are discussed above; those effects would be especially acute under this path because the debt would be so high and rise so rapidly. Such a path would necessitate much larger policy changes to reduce deficits to a particular level than the first two paths would. In addition, it would impose considerable constraints on policymakers and significantly raise the risk of a fiscal crisis.
I have previously speculated that if net interest spending exceeds 5% of gdp that a fiscal crisis is imminent or at least inevitable. This will occur either under the baseline scenario or under the third path. The only way to avoid it is to do serious deficit reduction now (at least $2 trillion in the next ten years). Since this is very unlikely, here is my conclusion based on the CBO report:
Sometime in the next 20 to 30 years, between 2036 and 2046, the U.S. is facing a fiscal crisis. A fiscal crisis is defined as a point in time in which investors "lose confidence in the government’s ability to manage its budget, and the government would thereby lose its ability to borrow at affordable rates. If the United States encountered a fiscal crisis, the abrupt rise in interest rates would reflect investors’ fears that the government would renege on the terms of its existing debt or that it would increase the supply of money to finance its activities or pay creditors and thereby boost inflation."
(See https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/111th-congress-2009-2010/reports/07-27_debt_fiscalcrisis_brief.pdf)
The default baseline shows an annual budget deficit of 8.8% of GDP and net interest spending of 5.8% of gdp (up from today's 1.4%). The category of "other noninterest spending" (which includes all spending, including defense, except for interest, social security, and health care programs) is 7.3% of gdp, down from today's 9.2% of gdp. Also, it shows federal debt held by the public to be 141% of gdp.
They discuss three alternative paths to the baseline. The first two paths show what would happen if the ten-year deficits were reduced by $2 trillion and $4 trillion respectively. The third path is the interesting one. It shows what would happen if the ten-year budget deficit was increased by $2 trillion. Since a recession is guaranteed in the next ten years (and probably within the next year) and since politicians love the "free lunch", we can expect the third path to be the most likely one.
In the third path in 2046, the annual budget deficit will be 13% of gdp, of which net interest spending will be 8% of gdp. And federal debt held by the public will be 193% of gdp.
From the report: In addition to its effects on output, income, and interest rates, the third path would also bring about many of the other consequences associated with high and rising federal debt that are discussed above; those effects would be especially acute under this path because the debt would be so high and rise so rapidly. Such a path would necessitate much larger policy changes to reduce deficits to a particular level than the first two paths would. In addition, it would impose considerable constraints on policymakers and significantly raise the risk of a fiscal crisis.
I have previously speculated that if net interest spending exceeds 5% of gdp that a fiscal crisis is imminent or at least inevitable. This will occur either under the baseline scenario or under the third path. The only way to avoid it is to do serious deficit reduction now (at least $2 trillion in the next ten years). Since this is very unlikely, here is my conclusion based on the CBO report:
Sometime in the next 20 to 30 years, between 2036 and 2046, the U.S. is facing a fiscal crisis. A fiscal crisis is defined as a point in time in which investors "lose confidence in the government’s ability to manage its budget, and the government would thereby lose its ability to borrow at affordable rates. If the United States encountered a fiscal crisis, the abrupt rise in interest rates would reflect investors’ fears that the government would renege on the terms of its existing debt or that it would increase the supply of money to finance its activities or pay creditors and thereby boost inflation."
(See https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/111th-congress-2009-2010/reports/07-27_debt_fiscalcrisis_brief.pdf)
Sunday, July 10, 2016
SDR valuation as of Sept 30 2016
The following weights based on the new formula will be used to determine the amounts of each of the five currencies in the new SDR basket that will take effect on October 1, 2016:
- U.S. dollar 41.73 percent (compared with 41.9 percent at the 2010 Review)
- Euro 30.93 percent (compared with 37.4 percent at the 2010 Review)
- Chinese renminbi 10.92 percent
- Japanese yen 8.33 percent (compared with 9.4 percent at the 2010 Review)
- Pound sterling 8.09 percent (compared with 11.3 percent at the 2010 Review)
The amounts of each currency in the revised basket will be calculated on September 30, 2016, in accordance with the above-listed weights.
From https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdrcb.htm
Friday, July 8, 2016
Congress debates bill to defend against flesh-eating (classified)
This is satire but very well done. From 2008.
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
Military Training to fight Zombie Apocalypse
First: Train against the zombie apocalypse
Second: "Something" happens. A terrorist attack or economic collapse or something else. If people don't have water for three days or food for ten days they go crazy and turn into zombies.
Zombie pandemic training
"If the zombie apocalypse should ever break out, nurses at the Pentagon will be well-prepared to take on the undead.
Military nursing students at the Uniformed Services University of the Healthcare Sciences are given ‘zombie pandemic’ training scenarios as a part of a population health course."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3677472/The-Pentagon-s-zombie-pandemic-training-revealed-Military-nurses-taught-respond-population-health-emergencies-creative-training-course.html
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